Local COVID-19 updates

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As previously advertised, the Commonwealth took the weekend off from reporting. Not as previously advertised, today's report (despite being a Tuesday) will not include weekend death numbers:

NOTICE January 18, 2022
Today's (January 18th) daily COVID-19 Interactive Data Dashboard includes data from Friday, January 14th through Monday, January 17th, as well as the remaining backlog of laboratory results from Thursday, January 13th resulting from network connectivity issues that affected numerous state agencies. Death data from the weekend will be included in the January 19th dashboard data.

Okay, I guess.

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 47 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 less than Friday - down 26.6%) for a total of 20,497 deaths, 56,489 newly reported confirmed cases (43,625 more than Friday - up 339.1%) for a total of 1,375,183 cases, and 365,681 newly reported molecular tests (291,190 more than Friday - up 390.9%).
Note that today's case/test data covers 4 days. Averaged over that period, there were 14,122.2 newly reported cases per day (1,258 more than Friday - up 9.8%), and 91,420.2 newly reported molecular tests per day (16,929 more than Friday - up 22.7%).
The seven day average positivity rate is 17.44%, compared to 19.90% Friday. The state also reported 13 newly reported probable deaths (10 more than Friday - up 333.3%) for a total of 502 and 4,505 newly reported probable cases (2,699 more than Friday - up 149.4%) for a total of 112,094. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 60 new deaths for a total of 20,999 and 60,994 new cases for a total of 1,487,277. There were 3,192 COVID-19 patients in hospital (31 less than Friday - down 1.0%), 466 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (6 more than Friday - up 1.3%) and 290 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (11 more than Friday - up 3.9%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 10,409.0 (890 less than Friday - down 7.9%), 16,164% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 55.0% below the highest observed value of 23,038.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 17.44% (0 less than Friday - down 12.4%), 5,555% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 37% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 3,166.0 (208 more than Friday - up 7.0%), 3,624% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 19% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 44.0 (same as Friday), 4,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 75% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,828 non-ICU beds, of which 5,385 (61.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 2,726 (30.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 717 (8.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,285 ICU beds, of which 641 (49.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 466 (36.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 178 (13.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 8,836 non-ICU beds, of which 5,507 (62.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 2,763 (31%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 566 (6.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,281 ICU beds, of which 654 (51.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 460 (35.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 167 (13.0%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 11,825.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 32.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,993.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 21.62%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,786.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 62.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,204.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.91% (or 7.24% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

So this is supposedly one day's worth of deaths data and somewhere between four and five days worth of case/test data, depending on just big that "remaining backlog of laboratory results from Thursday, January 13th" was. The death count is down somewhat compared to Friday, which is good to see. The case counts, even averaged over four days, are up, which is not so good; on the other hand, the state isn't saying how big that backlog was, so maybe it's not as bad news as one might think? In any event, the 14,122 average cases over that period are lower than the 18,721 of Thursday's report, so that's a good trend. The hospitalization count is also down compared to Friday's report, and that's definitely good news. The seven-day averages are more of a mixed bag, but the average for cases dropped a bunch and that for percent-positive is down to 17.44%. Overall, I'm very hesitant to read too much into day-over-day trendlines today, courtesy of greater-than-average data weirdness; on the other hand, for the first time in a long time, the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive are better than they were two weeks previously.

And Governor Charlie Baker actually did something about COVID today, announcing that the state would be providing weekly at-home rapid antigen tests to all school staff and students who sign up:

Governor Charlie Baker announced Tuesday his administration would allow schools to stop "test-and-stay" and contact-tracing efforts if they join a new state initiative offering weekly rapid at-home COVID-19 tests to staffers and students.

The move, which was praised by school leaders and the state's largest teachers' union, was aimed at relieving overburdened school nurses and other employees at a time of high COVID cases and data showing low spread in schools. State education leaders credited the test-and-stay program, which administered rapid tests to students and staff exposed to COVID at school to avoid quarantine, with saving about half-a-million days of in-person learning.

"School nurses and others have done an incredible job around the clock to make this [test and stay] program operate as effectively as it has here in Massachusetts," Baker said. "And it's been massively successful in avoiding days lost at home. But the current state of the pandemic requires that we adapt our efforts to meet the times."

Schools can choose to opt into the new rapid-test program or they can remain with test-and-stay, the governor said, adding that will free up schools to focus on people with symptoms.

"This new at-home testing program is frankly a game-changer," said education Commissioner Jeff Riley. "Providing this option for at-home rapid testing will allow school nurses to spend more time identifying symptomatic individuals and focus their efforts on other aspects of COVID-19 management in our schools."

Starting this week, schools can sign up to receive at-home rapid antigen tests for weekly use, with tests for staff arriving the week of Jan. 24 and those for families ready during the week of Jan. 31.

The at-home tests will ship directly to school districts, packaged in kits containing two tests apiece, officials said. Participating students and staff will receive one kit every two weeks, and families will have to give consent to receive the tests.

If someone tests positive at home, officials said, families should inform their school. The statement said schools will report positive cases to the state as part of the weekly COVID-19 reporting system already in place.

The announcement by the Baker administration comes as some medical and educational experts increasingly express that schools should shift away from resource-intensive efforts to contain a highly infectious virus that is mild in the vast majority of children who contract it.

But other scientists, teachers' unions, and some students' families have argued that the state should double down on these efforts in the middle of a surge to protect high-risk people, including in low-income communities where vaccination rates lag. They also point out that no one knows the long-term impacts of COVID infections.

Contact-tracing efforts have overwhelmed schools in recent weeks, as COVID cases among students and staff skyrocketed amid the Omicron surge. School nurses, who already were overburdened, often shouldered the duty of tracking students who were close contacts of COVID-positive students while they were infectious.

[ ... ]

But some other experts weren't so happy about weekly testing.

Other countries deploy rapid tests in schools daily. Once a week is insufficient because Omicron can cause days of peak contagiousness in someone within just one to four days of them being exposed to the virus, said Dr. Julia Koehler, an infectious disease clinician and professor of pediatrics at Harvard Medical School.

[ ... ]

"A weekly testing schedule is completely inadequate to control viral spread in schools," Koehler said. "By the time the infection has been detected four or five days later [after exposure], the virus has already been passed along to other children."

Koehler added that the state's mantra that schools are the safest place for children is "simply not true," given the experience of many families she knows whose schoolchildren spread the virus to babies or older relatives.

"Schools could be safe but we haven't invested the resources everywhere, not just where families can pay themselves to keep their children safe," Koehler said.

While rapid antigen tests are less sensitive at detecting infections in people without symptoms, the plan "looks like a reasonable approach," given the evidence that the Omicron surge is receding, said Dr. David Hamer, a professor of global health at Boston University School of Public Health and School of Medicine.

"As we move to lower transmission, I think we should be prioritizing testing of symptomatic students, teachers, and staff," Hamer said, adding that classroom transmission has appeared to be minimal.

School leaders lauded the plan as a relief to nurses who have grown overwhelmed with tracing mounting positive cases, said Tom Scott, executive director of the Massachusetts Association of School Superintendents. Shifting testing from schools to homes also will relieve school staff, he said.

"It's a great solution to a big problem," Scott said. "We're burdening people beyond the point of exhaustion."

The state's largest educators' union was was pleased. Massachusetts Teachers Association president Merrie Najimy praised the plan as "an important move" that will add testing for students and staff, something teachers want. She said the state should boost participation by automatically enrolling everyone in the testing program with the choice to opt out, rather than making people sign up. And she said educators still want contact tracing, but the state should provide staff, even nursing students, to help school nurses.

"Contact tracing is a necessary tool," Najimy said. "We know we are safest when we can test and trace where there have been infections."

Hey, it's something, and it sounds like an overall improvement. But limiting the tests to once per week, when a newly infected person can easily be contagious within a day or two, definitely sounds like an emphasis on being cheap (and reducing some spread) rather than doing what it takes to stop the spread.

Sigh. Keep masking up, folks; at least that is something one has control over.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 153 active and 2,388 cumulative cases as of January 17; the active case count peaked on January 15 with 199 active cases. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.