Local COVID-19 updates
Jan. 5th, 2022 06:03 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAnother grim milestone today, as Massachusetts passes twenty thousand confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 54 newly reported confirmed deaths (40 less than yesterday - down 42.6%) for a total of 20,008 deaths, 27,612 newly reported confirmed cases (10,991 more than yesterday - up 66.1%) for a total of 1,135,380 cases, and 138,316 newly reported molecular tests (64,973 more than yesterday - up 88.6%). The seven day average positivity rate is 22.06%, compared to 21.62% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 456 and 3,193 newly reported probable cases (969 more than yesterday - up 43.6%) for a total of 87,974. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 54 new deaths for a total of 20,464 and 30,805 new cases for a total of 1,223,354. There were 2,426 COVID-19 patients in hospital (54 more than yesterday - up 2.3%), 427 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (14 less than yesterday - down 3.2%) and 265 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 12,559.0 (734 more than yesterday - up 6.2%), 19,523% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 19.0% below the highest observed value of 15,428.0 on 1/3/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 22.06% (0 more than yesterday - up 2.0%), 7,055% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 20% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,083.0 (90 more than yesterday - up 4.5%), 2,350% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 47% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 34.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 6.2%), 3,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 81% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,775 non-ICU beds, of which 6,156 (70.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,999 (22.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 620 (7.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,256 ICU beds, of which 655 (52.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 427 (34.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 174 (13.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,691 non-ICU beds, of which 6,004 (69.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,931 (22%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 756 (8.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,246 ICU beds, of which 614 (49.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 441 (35.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 191 (15.3%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 4,400.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 24.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,522.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.02%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,271.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 59.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,311.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.57% (or 9.37% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I was really hoping we wouldn't hit the 20k death figure until tomorrow, but such was not to be. Today, the state reported 54 confirmed deaths, which is admittedly fewer than yesterday's count of 94; however, that count covered Saturday through Monday deaths, and today's mark is significantly higher than the 31.3 average over those three days. The case count continues to skyrocket upward; today's 27,612 newly confirmed cases once again sets the record for the highest single-day case count in the history of the pandemic. Hospitalizations also continued to climb steadily (although not as fast as cases), with today's 2,426 patient census being the highest reported since the 2,428 reported on January 5, 2021, exactly one year ago. That was the peak of hospitalizations from last year's winter surge; alas, there's no sign that we're anywhere near the peak of this surge. All four seven-day averages are also up, with another new highest observed value set for the cases average and the percent-positive average now at 22.06%.
These case and percent-positive numbers are horrible; the hospitalization and death counts are merely bad. Looking at the latest virus counts in the sewage treated by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, things are only going to get far worse:
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 112 active and 1,845 cumulative cases as of January 4. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 54 newly reported confirmed deaths (40 less than yesterday - down 42.6%) for a total of 20,008 deaths, 27,612 newly reported confirmed cases (10,991 more than yesterday - up 66.1%) for a total of 1,135,380 cases, and 138,316 newly reported molecular tests (64,973 more than yesterday - up 88.6%). The seven day average positivity rate is 22.06%, compared to 21.62% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 456 and 3,193 newly reported probable cases (969 more than yesterday - up 43.6%) for a total of 87,974. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 54 new deaths for a total of 20,464 and 30,805 new cases for a total of 1,223,354. There were 2,426 COVID-19 patients in hospital (54 more than yesterday - up 2.3%), 427 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (14 less than yesterday - down 3.2%) and 265 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 12,559.0 (734 more than yesterday - up 6.2%), 19,523% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 19.0% below the highest observed value of 15,428.0 on 1/3/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 22.06% (0 more than yesterday - up 2.0%), 7,055% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 20% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,083.0 (90 more than yesterday - up 4.5%), 2,350% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 47% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 34.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 6.2%), 3,300% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 81% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 8,775 non-ICU beds, of which 6,156 (70.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,999 (22.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 620 (7.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,256 ICU beds, of which 655 (52.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 427 (34.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 174 (13.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,691 non-ICU beds, of which 6,004 (69.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,931 (22%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 756 (8.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,246 ICU beds, of which 614 (49.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 441 (35.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 191 (15.3%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 4,400.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 24.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,522.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.02%.
One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,271.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 59.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,311.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.57% (or 9.37% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I was really hoping we wouldn't hit the 20k death figure until tomorrow, but such was not to be. Today, the state reported 54 confirmed deaths, which is admittedly fewer than yesterday's count of 94; however, that count covered Saturday through Monday deaths, and today's mark is significantly higher than the 31.3 average over those three days. The case count continues to skyrocket upward; today's 27,612 newly confirmed cases once again sets the record for the highest single-day case count in the history of the pandemic. Hospitalizations also continued to climb steadily (although not as fast as cases), with today's 2,426 patient census being the highest reported since the 2,428 reported on January 5, 2021, exactly one year ago. That was the peak of hospitalizations from last year's winter surge; alas, there's no sign that we're anywhere near the peak of this surge. All four seven-day averages are also up, with another new highest observed value set for the cases average and the percent-positive average now at 22.06%.
These case and percent-positive numbers are horrible; the hospitalization and death counts are merely bad. Looking at the latest virus counts in the sewage treated by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, things are only going to get far worse:
The Omicron variant now accounts for 95.4 percent of COVID-19 cases in the United States, according to data released Tuesday by the CDC. COVID cases in Massachusetts have skyrocketed in recent weeks, breaking previous records, and hospitalizations have risen to levels near last winter's surge, though so far deaths have risen more slowly.
But there's another COVID-19 metric experts are monitoring, one that makes clear just how startlingly widespread the virus is now: waste water — or sewage — surveillance data. And it has raised alarms about where we're headed in the coming weeks.
Here's how it works: When people have COVID-19, they shed the coronavirus that causes it, SARS-CoV-2, not only from their mouths and noses, but in fecal matter, which gets flushed down the toilet and into area waste water.
In the Boston area, waste water from 43 communities, including Boston, that belong to the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority system, converges on the Deer Island treatment plant in Boston Harbor.
There, the sewage is tested to determine the number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies per milliliter of waste water. More virus means more cases of COVID-19 in the region.
The testing picks up COVID-19 whether people in the community have symptoms, mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, said Newsha Ghaeli, president and co-founder of Cambridge-based Biobot Analytics, which has conducted the tests since early in the pandemic. It doesn't matter if people are vaccinated or unvaccinated, or what variant they have. The waste water readings provide perhaps the clearest pictures of just how widely COVID is circulating.
What are the tests saying now?
In Massachusetts, where numbers have taken off like a rocket, the MWRA waste water testing numbers are broken down into two groups of communities, those in the northern region and the southern region. Twenty-two communities are in the northern region, 17 are in the southern, and four, including Boston, are in both.
In the southern region, a seven-day average of 11,466 RNA copies/mL — or bits of virus per milliliter — was detected as of Monday, more than eight times higher than levels reached in mid-December when the Omicron variant's impact was still unknown. The northern region has seen a rise to a seven-day average of 8,353 RNA copies/mL, a nearly seven-fold increase, over the same period.
The numbers are also far higher than ever reached during last winter's COVID surge, when the southern region topped out at 1,476 RNA copies/mL and the northern region at 1,130.
The swiftly climbing numbers suggest more case increases could be ahead. The crucial question remains how many of those cases will result in hospitalizations and deaths, experts say.
[ ... ]
Ghaeli said waste water testing has become particularly important at this stage in the pandemic when many people are feeling mild symptoms, using at-home tests, and isolating at home, and not necessarily reporting their case to anybody and thus not being reflected in any official case counts.
Biobot, which was founded in 2017, has done testing in all 50 states and several territories, Ghaeli said. It currently has contracts with water systems in more than 20 states.
"We're definitely seeing a nationwide surge right now," she said.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 112 active and 1,845 cumulative cases as of January 4. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.