Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

Things just keep getting worse and worse. (It didn't help any that the URL for the raw data file kept 404ing out; at least the state fixed that one finally.) But as for today's data ... it sucks.

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 36 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 less than yesterday - down 20.0%) for a total of 19,773 deaths, 21,137 newly reported confirmed cases (5,974 more than yesterday - up 39.4%) for a total of 1,038,566 cases, and 119,292 newly reported molecular tests (27,318 more than yesterday - up 29.7%).The seven day average positivity rate is 16.44%, compared to 13.58% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 17.63%; that rate was not reported yesterday. The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (2 more than yesterday) for a total of 448 and 949 newly reported probable cases (53 less than yesterday - down 5.3%) for a total of 79,345. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 38 new deaths for a total of 20,221 and 22,086 new cases for a total of 1,117,911. There were 1,817 COVID-19 patients in hospital (106 more than yesterday - up 6.2%), 382 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 less than yesterday - down 2.6%) and 250 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 more than yesterday - up 2.0%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 7,637.0 (1,442 more than yesterday - up 23.3%), 11,832% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 14.0% below the highest observed value of 8,804.0 on 12/28/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 16.44% (0 more than yesterday - up 21.0%), 5,230% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 41% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,658.0 (25 more than yesterday - up 1.5%), 1,850% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 58% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 26.0 (same as yesterday), 2,500% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 86% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,867 non-ICU beds, of which 6,612 (74.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,435 (16.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 820 (9.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,268 ICU beds, of which 709 (55.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 382 (30.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 177 (14.0%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,758 non-ICU beds, of which 6,591 (75.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,319 (15%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 848 (9.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,255 ICU beds, of which 667 (53.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 392 (31.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 196 (15.6%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,445.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 22.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,342.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.44% (or 8.07% excluding higher education).

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,659.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 58.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,167.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.44%.

Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 1,634 total cases, with a two-week case count of 219 cases, a daily incidence rate of 65.9 which is higher than last week, with a corresponding risk color code of red (if the state was still reporting color codes). Acton is also listed as having 79,106 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 3,183 and a two-week positive test count of 229, for a percent-positive rate of 7.19 which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 1,017,429 total cases, with a two-week case count of 80,930 cases, a daily incidence rate of 83.0 which is higher than last week. Massachusetts is also listed as having 36,035,909 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,144,318 and a two-week positive test count of 88,533, for a percent-positive rate of 7.74 which is higher than last week.

As of July 1, 2021, the state is no longer reporting risk color codes. However, if it was, of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 43 would be coded gray (compared to 47 last week), 11 would be coded green (compared to 9 last week), and 30 would be coded yellow (compared to 54 last week).The remaining 267 towns would be coded red (compared to 241 last week): Abington, Acton, Acushnet, Adams, Agawam, Amesbury, Andover, Ashburnham, Ashby, Ashland, Athol, Attleboro, Auburn, Avon, Ayer, Barnstable, Barre, Bedford, Belchertown, Bellingham, Berkley, Berlin, Beverly, Billerica, Blackstone, Blandford, Bolton, Boston, Bourne, Boxborough, Boxford, Boylston, Braintree, Brewster, Bridgewater, Brimfield, Brockton, Brookfield, Burlington, Canton, Carlisle, Carver, Charlton, Chatham, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Cheshire, Chicopee, Clinton, Cohasset, Dalton, Danvers, Dartmouth, Dedham, Deerfield, Dennis, Dighton, Douglas, Dover, Dracut, Dudley, Dunstable, Duxbury, East Bridgewater, East Brookfield, East Longmeadow, Easthampton, Easton, Edgartown, Essex, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Falmouth, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Franklin, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Gloucester, Grafton, Granby, Great Barrington, Greenfield, Groton, Groveland, Hadley, Halifax, Hamilton, Hampden, Hanover, Hanson, Hardwick, Harvard, Harwich, Haverhill, Hingham, Holbrook, Holden, Holland, Holliston, Holyoke, Hopedale, Hopkinton, Hubbardston, Hudson, Hull, Huntington, Ipswich, Kingston, Lakeville, Lancaster, Lawrence, Lee, Leicester, Lenox, Leominster, Leverett, Lincoln, Littleton, Longmeadow, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Manchester, Mansfield, Marblehead, Marion, Marlborough, Marshfield, Mashpee, Mattapoisett, Maynard, Medfield, Medford, Medway, Melrose, Mendon, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleborough, Middleton, Milford, Millbury, Millis, Millville, Milton, Monson, Montague, Nahant, Nantucket, Needham, New Bedford, Newbury, Newburyport, Norfolk, North Adams, North Andover, North Attleborough, North Brookfield, North Reading, Northborough, Northbridge, Norton, Norwell, Norwood, Oak Bluffs, Orange, Orleans, Oxford, Palmer, Paxton, Peabody, Pembroke, Pepperell, Pittsfield, Plainville, Plymouth, Plympton, Quincy, Randolph, Raynham, Reading, Rehoboth, Revere, Rochester, Rockland, Rockport, Rowley, Russell, Rutland, Salem, Salisbury, Sandwich, Saugus, Scituate, Seekonk, Sharon, Sherborn, Shirley, Shrewsbury, Somerset, Somerville, Southampton, Southborough, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Sterling, Stoneham, Stoughton, Stow, Sturbridge, Sudbury, Sunderland, Sutton, Swampscott, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tewksbury, Tisbury, Topsfield, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Upton, Uxbridge, Wakefield, Walpole, Waltham, Ware, Wareham, Warren, Watertown, Wayland, Webster, Wenham, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, West Brookfield, West Newbury, West Springfield, West Tisbury, Westborough, Westfield, Westford, Westminster, Weston, Westport, Westwood, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilbraham, Williamstown, Wilmington, Winchendon, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, Wrentham, and Yarmouth.

30 cities/towns would be newly coded red this week (Acton, Ashland, Bedford, Boston, Carlisle, Cheshire, Dedham, Dunstable, Hadley, Holland, Holliston, Leverett, Lincoln, Maynard, Milton, Nahant, Needham, Newburyport, Norton, Sharon, Somerville, Sudbury, Swampscott, Waltham, Watertown, Wayland, Westborough, Weston, Westwood, and Worcester) and 4 cities/towns would no longer be coded red this week (Chesterfield, Gill, Hinsdale, and Princeton).

Of the 10 towns nearby (including my own town), none are coded gray, none are coded green, one is coded yellow (Concord), and 9 are coded red (Acton, Boxborough, Carlisle, Chelmsford, Littleton, Maynard, Stow, Sudbury, and Westford).

Of the 10 towns near my church, none are coded gray, none are coded green, none are coded yellow, and 10 are coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-over-day deaths are down a bit, at least - not that 36 deaths a day are anywhere near a good thing. But the state smashed yesterday's all-time daily case count by nearly forty percent, with 21,237 newly reported confirmed cases. Hospitalizations are up again as well, to 1,817, the highest level since the 1,878 reported on January 28.

The seven-day averages are, if anything, worse. Deaths held constant, and hospitalizations are up a bit. However, cases are way up, far above the peaks set during the initial wave and last winter's surge; the "highest observed value" of 8,804 (officially dated December 28) was literally set in today's report. For constrast, the peak in last winter's wave was 6,229 on January 8. And the percent-positive average is up almost another three points, to 16.44% (from yesterday's reported 13.58%); again, way above last winter's peak and reaching its way towards the peaks it hit during the initial wave (when, as one might recall, there weren't enough tests available to even begin to meet the demand).

The city/town data is also out, and also stinks. If Massachusetts was still reporting risk color codes, my town of Acton would be one of 267 communities in the highest-risk "red" category; that total is up from 241 last week.

Governor Charlie Baker apparently thinks he's done more than enough to deal with COVID at this point; when asked about the long lines at test sites today, he replied that "people are going to have to be patient":

Governor Charlie Baker on Thursday defended the state's performance on making COVID-19 tests available, telling reporters Massachusetts has consistently led the nation on that front and warning that residents will have to "be patient" as they seek tests amid heightened demand with Omicron surging.

"Massachusetts is number two in the country, and has been either number one or number two in the country, on testing per capita pretty much since the beginning of this year," Baker, a popular centrist Republican, told reporters at the tail end of an unrelated briefing on the Green Line extension project.

"And we have over 100 sites where people can access tests, and we never took down any of our stop-the-spread sites, even when the case counts got really low," Baker said, in response to a question about testing.

Baker added that Massachusetts is "the only state in the country that I'm aware of" that went directly to manufacturers to negotiate the purchase of 2 million test kits."

Those, he said, were "distributed before the holidays to 100 communities" that "had significant issues with respect to access, because of the nature of the communities that they serve and represent. And every community in Massachusetts can now buy rapid tests off of the contracts that we negotiated with three different vendors."

Baker said state officials will continue working to enlarge their testing infrastructure.

"We have more capacity per capita than any other state in the country," Baker said. "But people need to understand that they're probably going to have to wait. ... We have more testing infrastructure than just about anybody else, but people are going to have to be patient."

Baker's comments came one day after the Globe reported that residents have swarmed testing sites this week, some looking for assurance they aren't infectious and can travel or attend social gatherings, others suffering from fever and coughs and seeking confirmation of their worst fears.

Lines crawled past churches, restaurants, and shops. They stretched along bike paths and filled entire parking lots. Some leaked into roadways, disrupting traffic and prompting police intervention.

At 13.58 percent, the seven-day average statewide positivity rate is higher now than at any other point this year, the Globe reported Wednesday. The last time Massachusetts hit that measure of the prevalence of the virus was May 12, 2020, when testing was fairly sparse — just 15,000 a day compared to the current daily average of 92,000 — and was largely limited to those with symptoms, thus skewing the percentage higher.

"We're going to continue to do what we can to make our testing infrastructure bigger, but we have some of the same issues with staffing, it's primarily a staff issue, that almost everybody else in today's economy has," Baker said. "But we know it's important. We really appreciate the fact that people take advantage of these sites and take advantage of these tests as they are available. ... But people need to understand that they're probably going to have to wait."

Baker also addressed the masking issue at Thursday's briefing.

"We have distributed millions of masks to people already, and we continue to talk to people about where we can make them best available," Baker said. "The other thing I'd say about masks is, we are again one of the only states in the country that actually created with our colleagues here in Massachusetts an N95 manufacturing facility that's completely domestic, with respect to its entire supply chain."

Now, to be completely fair, Baker's remarks were made this afternoon, before the current set of numbers was released. But cases are skyrocketing, and Baker refuses to do anything at all.

Thanks for nothing, Charlie.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 178 active and 1,691 cumulative cases as of December 29, again breaking the previous day's record for the highest active case count the town has yet seen. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.