Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (12 less than Friday - down 66.7%) for a total of 18,695 deaths, 4,039 newly reported confirmed cases (2,441 more than Friday - up 152.8%) for a total of 807,204 cases, and 211,037 newly reported molecular tests (112,673 more than Friday - up 114.5%).

Note that today's data covers 3 days. Averaged over that period, there were 2.0 newly reported deaths per day (16 less than Friday - down 88.9%), 1,346.3 newly reported cases per day (252 less than Friday - down 15.7%), and 70,345.7 newly reported molecular tests per day (28,018 less than Friday - down 28.5%).

The seven day average positivity rate is 1.86%, compared to 1.92% Friday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as Friday) for a total of 398 and 287 newly reported probable cases (118 more than Friday - up 69.8%) for a total of 58,602. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 6 new deaths for a total of 19,093 and 4,326 new cases for a total of 865,806. There were 516 COVID-19 patients in hospital (14 more than Friday - up 2.8%), 138 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 less than Friday - down 4.8%) and 72 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (10 less than Friday - down 12.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,194.0 (180 more than Friday - up 17.8%), 1,765% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 81.0% below the highest observed value of 6,229.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.86% (0 less than Friday - down 3.5%), 502% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 517.0 (1 less than Friday - down 0.2%), 508% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 87% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (2 less than Friday - down 18.2%), 800% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,888 non-ICU beds, of which 7,474 (84.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 378 (4.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,036 (11.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,270 ICU beds, of which 841 (66.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 138 (10.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 291 (22.9%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported Friday a total of 9,115 non-ICU beds, of which 7,999 (87.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 357 (4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 759 (8.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported Friday a total of 1,289 ICU beds, of which 935 (72.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 145 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 209 (16.2%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 974.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 11.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 542.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.57%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

We're coming off a weekend, so of course day-to-day comparisons are messed up (less stuff gets reported over the weekend, but the report covers more days, so WTF can one do?) Newly reported deaths are way down compared to Friday; total newly reported cases are way up, but the daily average is down a tad. On the much less pleasant front, current hospitalizations are up, as is the seven-day average for new cases.

And, even playing averaging games, we're still well over a thousand new cases every goddamn day. This is not good news, especially with winter fast approaching:

Recent developments, including federal authorization of a COVID-19 vaccine for children 5 to 11 and the emergence of two promising pills for treatment of the disease, may have raised hopes that the coronavirus pandemic in the United States is on the wane.

But some experts are warily eyeing the approach of cold weather and the winter holidays - and urging people to get vaccinated and take precautions.

Christopher Murray, director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said researchers were seeing increasing evidence of a surge in the Northern Hemisphere, which they believe is due to winter seasonality, waning immunity from vaccines, and people being less cautious. The question, he said, is how big the surge will be.

In the United States, he said, the institute's closely-watched model suggests there will be a "relatively modest" surge this winter. It will be "nowhere near as large as last year," he said, but it will still be enough to put "great pressure on hospitals" when they have to handle both COVID-19 cases and the expected influx of flu cases.

[ ... ]

In a briefing Friday, Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiology lead at the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center, said there were worrisome signs cropping up in the national data.

"This week compared to last week, the cases have pretty much stalled," she said. "That's worrisome for two reasons—one, because we like to see the declines continue, but also because where we're stalling is at a level of weekly case numbers that are still well above what we saw at the lower periods at the end of June and in early July."

"There are some early signs that we're headed in the wrong direction," she said. "It's really important that we do something to address the stalling."

She also raised concerns about increases in COVID cases being seen in some countries overseas, including "massive case surges" in Eastern Europe and large case increases in Africa.

She said we "need to continue to increase immunity in the population through vaccination. ... There's still a long ways to go. The United States, as a whole, has not achieved as high a level of vaccination coverage as a number of other countries. And you know, that's really going to put us in a much more vulnerable situation."

The global pandemic "is very much not over and ... we must make more progress in increasing vaccine uptake not just here in the United States but globally because, again, what happens elsewhere eventually could come here," she said.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 20 active and 1,217 cumulative cases as of November 7. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.