Local COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 23 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than yesterday - up 4.5%) for a total of 18,213 deaths, 1,448 newly reported confirmed cases (68 more than yesterday - up 4.9%) for a total of 756,363 cases, and 97,488 newly reported molecular tests (43,273 more than yesterday - up 79.8%).The seven day average positivity rate is 1.97%, compared to 1.97% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 387 and 198 newly reported probable cases (87 more than yesterday - up 78.4%) for a total of 53,956. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 23 new deaths for a total of 18,600 and 1,646 new cases for a total of 810,319. There were 632 COVID-19 patients in hospital (11 less than yesterday - down 1.7%), 165 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (4 less than yesterday - down 2.4%) and 102 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (6 more than yesterday - up 6.2%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,108.0 (55 less than yesterday - down 4.7%), 1,631% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 83.0% below the highest observed value of 6,231.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.97% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.0%), 540% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 615.0 (1 less than yesterday - down 0.2%), 623% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 85% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 10.0%), 1,000% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,975 non-ICU beds, of which 7,666 (85.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 467 (5.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 842 (9.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,274 ICU beds, of which 860 (67.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 165 (13.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 249 (19.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,900 non-ICU beds, of which 7,433 (83.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 474 (5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 993 (11.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,257 ICU beds, of which 825 (65.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 169 (13.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 263 (20.9%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,381.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 653.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.44%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Day-over-day deaths and cases are up, which is bad; total hospitalizations are down slightly. Three of the four seven-day averages are down compared to yesterday; alas, the one that rose was deaths.

The Boston Globe ran a front-page, above-the-fold story about how COVID-19 cases are expected to rise this fall but not overwhelm hospitals:

The coronavirus will continue to spread across Massachusetts in the coming weeks, according to projections by academic models, as the virus attacks the unvaccinated, people gather inside in cooler weather, and immunity wanes among those who were vaccinated months ago.

But the predicted rise in COVID-19 infections is not expected to translate into hospitals in Massachusetts being overwhelmed, as in other parts of the country. That's because more than two-thirds of Massachusetts residents are fully vaccinated, and the vaccines have proven to be highly effective in preventing severe illness requiring hospital care.

As a result, hospital officials around the state say they are not expecting a huge surge in COVID-19 cases. Their various models predict either a slight decline, a slight increase, or an increase that will plateau over the next few weeks, but nothing resembling other surges before vaccines.

[ ... ]

Meanwhile, hospitals are already struggling with longer-term consequences of the pandemic — a crushing demand for care for other illnesses, along with severe staffing shortages. Virtually every hospital in the state is bursting at the seams.

Massachusetts General Hospital has been packed for weeks, not so much with COVID-19 patients but with people seeking all types of treatment, often care that had been deferred during the pandemic, said Dr. Erica Shenoy, associate chief of the Infection Control Unit at Mass. General, which had 35 COVID-19 patients on Monday.

[ ... ]

Notably, the University of Washington projection holds that if 95 percent of people wore masks when outside the home, both deaths and infections would markedly decline.

But surveys show that only a third of Massachusetts residents are routinely masking, said Ali H. Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the institute. Combined with increased mobility, schools opening, cooler weather, and waning immunity in those vaccinated earlier this year, the result will likely be a rise in cases, Mokdad said.

"We have enough people in Massachusetts that are still susceptible to COVID-19," he said. "We're expecting that cases will keep increasing, unfortunately."

While hospitals won't be hit as hard as in previous winters, Mokdad said, "If mask wearing does not become a habit, a combination of flu and COVID will put a stress on the hospitals. Hospitals are already at a breaking point."

Indeed they are.

"We have been consistently very busy with large volumes of patients seeking care, large volumes of very sick patients," said Therese Hudson-Jinks, chief nursing officer and chief patient experience officer at Tufts Medical Center. "We're seeing just about everything — cardiac disease, neurological disease, pulmonary disease."

Although it hasn't been studied, hospital officials say that, anecdotally, people are catching up on care deferred during the pandemic, often coming in with more advanced conditions. Some of the increase in very sick patients may be attributable to pandemic-related stress, Hudson-Jinks said.

Mask up, folks. (And if you can get vaccinated but haven't yet: the best time to get your shots was months ago, but the next-best time is right the fuck now.)

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 22 active and 1,131 cumulative cases as of September 28. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.