Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 5 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than yesterday - down 16.7%) for a total of 17,678 deaths, 586 newly reported confirmed cases (109 more than yesterday - up 22.9%) for a total of 668,404 cases, and 50,456 newly reported molecular tests (15,706 more than yesterday - up 45.2%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.53%, compared to 1.39% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 368 and 38 newly reported probable cases (27 less than yesterday - down 41.5%) for a total of 46,776. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 5 new deaths for a total of 18,046 and 624 new cases for a total of 715,180. There were 114 COVID-19 patients in hospital (4 less than yesterday - down 3.4%), 29 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (7 less than yesterday - down 19.4%) and 12 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (same as yesterday).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 311.0 (40 more than yesterday - up 14.8%), 385% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/23/2021 and 96.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.53% (0 more than yesterday - up 9.8%), 398% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 94% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 110.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 0.9%), 29% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 2.0 (same as yesterday), 100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,152 non-ICU beds, of which 8,180 (89.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 85 (0.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 887 (9.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,342 ICU beds, of which 953 (71.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 29 (2.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 360 (26.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,141 non-ICU beds, of which 8,191 (89.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 82 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 868 (9.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,361 ICU beds, of which 986 (72.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 36 (2.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 339 (24.9%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 69.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 2.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 86.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.50%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Whee! Deaths are down slightly day-over-day, but cases? Waaay up. Hospitalizations are down (at least for the moment), but the seven-day averages for cases, hospitalizations and percent-positive are all up again. Today's 586 newly reported cases are the first time since May 20 that more than five hundred cases were reported on a single day. The folks at Covid Act Now are once again showing Massachusetts as having the highest infection rate (1.52) in the nation, and thus placing the state solidly in the red, "Very High Risk" category.

As near as I can tell, Governor Charlie Baker is in full "don't worry, be happy" mode about this surge, presumably because Massachusetts is such a leader in vaccinations. Right now, the expectation is that fully-vaccinated people are at extremely low risk of serious disease, and the focus should be on the risks to the unvaccinated. But what about those breakthrough infections?

As COVID-19 cases begin to tick up in Massachusetts, including among those who have been vaccinated, experts say the most important breakthrough cases to watch are those that bring serious illness or death.

Such severe cases are by far the exception and not the rule, data show, as the vaccines in use in the US have proven highly effective at preventing serious disease.

But as public health officials weigh the current surge in cases nationwide, particularly those tied to the now-dominant Delta variant, they say infections in vaccinated individuals who aren’t experiencing symptoms are far less cause for concern than the potential risks to the unvaccinated.

In Massachusetts, which boasts one of the nation’s highest vaccination rates, it should be no surprise that some positive COVID-19 test results are emerging in people who were vaccinated, they said.

While the COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective, it is still possible for those who have been vaccinated to test positive for the virus, and, in very rare cases, suffer severe disease. It’s those cases that are the most critical to attend to, experts said.

“There is a lot of media hype about breakthrough infections,” said Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center. “But really it is the unvaccinated people who should be worried right now much more so than the vaccinated people.”

As far as tracking the data, she added, “there’s a really good argument to not pay attention to [asymptomatic cases] at all,” though she noted that researchers still don’t know how common it is for asymptomatic individuals with breakthrough infections to transmit the virus to others. “And then what about the mild infections? That is the vaccine still doing what it is supposed to do.”

It’s important to track those who have symptoms as a way of assessing how well the vaccine is working, Doron said. But “we don’t need to act on mild infection.”

Instead, she said, the focus should be on ensuring as many people as possible get vaccinated.

As of July 17, the most recent date for which data was available, there were 5,166 COVID-19 cases in 4.3 million vaccinated individuals in Massachusetts. Very few of those who were infected after being vaccinated — 80 people — died.

Upon request, state health officials provide weekly data detailing how many infections have been recorded among the ranks of the vaccinated in Massachusetts and whether they led to hospitalization, death, both, or neither. State officials are considering adding that information to their COVID dashboard every week, they said Friday.

I really do hope the state adds breakthrough infection data to the dashboard. I personally want to see what the hell is going on, and I started doing these posts in large part because the state (at the time) wasn't reporting on trends. Even today, the absolute case numbers are still okay; what's scary is how fast those case counts are climbing. Now that we're seeing much more infectious variants emerge, it's even more important to know how effective the available vaccines are at handling said variants; publishing data on breakthrough infections is the best way I can think of to do that.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 9 active and 992 cumulative cases as of July 23. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.