Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 more than yesterday - up 50.0%) for a total of 17,665 deaths, 366 newly reported confirmed cases (351 less than yesterday - down 49.0%) for a total of 666,884 cases, and 24,834 newly reported molecular tests (36,646 less than yesterday - down 59.6%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.18%, compared to 1.02% yesterday. The state also reported 3 newly reported probable deaths (3 more than yesterday) for a total of 368 and 86 newly reported probable cases (38 more than yesterday - up 79.2%) for a total of 46,605. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 9 new deaths for a total of 18,033 and 452 new cases for a total of 713,489. There were 100 COVID-19 patients in hospital (6 less than yesterday - down 5.7%), 33 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 6.5%) and 18 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 20.0%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 218.0 (17 more than yesterday - up 8.5%), 240% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 97.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.18% (0 more than yesterday - up 15.3%), 283% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 96% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 106.0 (same as yesterday), 24% above the lowest observed value of 85.0 on 7/9/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 2.0 (1 more than yesterday - up 100.0%), 100% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/12/2021 and 99% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,938 non-ICU beds, of which 7,707 (86.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 67 (0.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,164 (13.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,321 ICU beds, of which 869 (65.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 33 (2.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 419 (31.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,929 non-ICU beds, of which 7,562 (84.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 75 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,292 (14.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,333 ICU beds, of which 912 (68.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 31 (2.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 390 (29.3%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 58.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 93.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.42%.

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Yesterday, of course, covered three days worth of reporting, so day-over-day comparisons are a bit tricky. However, today's six newly reported deaths being up compared to a three-day period of only four is bad news any time. Yesterday's 717 confirmed cases averaged out to 239 cases per day, and today's 366 cases are much higher than that average. Hospitalizations, at least, are down compared to yesterday, but the ICU and ventilator patient counts are both up, neither of which is good. And, worse still, the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive and deaths are all up over yesterday. Bad news all in all; another surge is clearly getting underway.

And that surge is now almost entirely the Delta variant, reports the Associated Press:

NEW YORK — Health officials say the Delta variant of the coronavirus continues to surge and accounts for an estimated 83% of U.S. COVID-19 cases.

That's a dramatic increase from the week of July 3, when the variant accounted for about 50% of genetically sequenced coronavirus cases.

"The best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19 variants is to prevent the spread of disease, and vaccination is the most powerful tool we have," said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director if the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during a U.S. Senate hearing Tuesday.

The Delta variant is a mutated coronavirus that spreads more easily than other versions. It was first detected in India but now has been identified around the world.

Alas, too many folks are still refusing to get vaccinated, presumably for political reasons:

As coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths trend upward throughout the United States once more, White House medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci issued a stark warning about the threat posed by a substantial percentage of the population going unvaccinated.

"If we don't get a significant proportion of these recalcitrant people vaccinated, you're going to be seeing a smoldering of this outbreak in our country for a considerable period of time," the nation's top infectious disease expert told CNN's Kate Bolduan on Monday.

Fauci's comments add to a growing chorus of officials warning that vaccine hesitancy has lead to a recent uptick in coronavirus cases. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said last week the country is grappling with a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," and Surgeon General Vivek Murthy voiced similar concerns.

"I believe when the vaccines get fully approved in full licensure, even though it's no doubt that they are highly effective now and very safe — I think when that official imprimatur occurs, with the full approval, you're going to see more people get vaccinated," Fauci said.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that just over 68 percent of adults have received at least one shot. But the Delta variant is continuing to rapidly spread, hitting states with low vaccination rates like Arkansas and Utah acutely.

Among the unvaccinated, Fauci said increased hospitalizations due to serious illness — and in some cases, death — can be expected as a result of the highly contagious variant. He added that several studies have demonstrated that the vaccines "still protect very well to the tune of 90 percent or more" against such outcomes.

"In some regions of the country, up to 90 percent of the variants are the Delta variant," Fauci told PBS's Judy Woodruff on Monday. "So it has already shown its incredible ability to be able to efficiently transmit from person to person, which makes it very dangerous."

[ ... ]

In recent weeks, the spike in rates has prompted pleas from governors for people to get inoculated — even as some Republican lawmakers in their states downplay the risk of the virus and pass legislation restricting or banning vaccine mandates and passports.

"Political differences are totally understandable and a natural part of the process in any country," Fauci said on CNN. "But when it comes to a public health issue, in which you're in the middle of a deadly pandemic and the common enemy is the virus, it just doesn't make any sense to essentially disregard or don't pay attention to what's obvious."

Vaccine hesitancy and resistance, spurred by misinformation campaigns on social media and the word of some elected officials, emerged as a point of contention in the White House on Friday, with President Biden assessing that platforms like Facebook are "killing people" for allowing lies and conspiracy theories about the shots to remain on their platforms.

Fauci touched on the issue over the weekend, telling CNN's Jim Acosta that he thought polio and smallpox would still be circulating in the country if "we had the kind of false information that's being spread now."

Fortunately, it sounds as though the current US vaccines are effective against the Delta variant. Get your damn shots, already!

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 5 active and 986 cumulative cases as of July 19. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.