Local COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 42.9%) for a total of 17,540 deaths, 177 newly reported confirmed cases (64 less than yesterday - down 26.6%) for a total of 661,812 cases, and 51,152 newly reported molecular tests (3,884 less than yesterday - down 7.1%). The seven day average positivity rate is 0.57%, compared to 0.62% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 0.82%, compared to 0.91% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 4,735 (364 less than yesterday - down 7.1%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 363 and 23 newly reported probable cases (6 more than yesterday - up 35.3%) for a total of 45,911. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 17,903 and 200 new cases for a total of 707,723. There were 193 COVID-19 patients in hospital (10 less than yesterday - down 4.9%), 68 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (1 less than yesterday - down 1.4%) and 38 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than yesterday - up 5.6%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 104.0 (7 less than yesterday - down 6.3%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 104.0 on 6/3/2021 and 99.0% below the highest observed value of 6,238.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 0.57% (0 less than yesterday - down 7.8%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.6% on 6/3/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 222.0 (8 less than yesterday - down 3.5%), 43% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 95% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 4.0 (same as yesterday), 0% above the lowest observed value of 4.0 on 6/2/2021 and 98% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,214 non-ICU beds, of which 7,811 (84.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 125 (1.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,278 (13.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,359 ICU beds, of which 916 (67.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 68 (5.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 375 (27.6%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,141 non-ICU beds, of which 7,672 (83.9%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 134 (1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,335 (14.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,358 ICU beds, of which 917 (67.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 69 (5.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 372 (27.4%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 318.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 8.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 336.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.05% (or 1.62% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Mostly good news on the day-to-day comparisons; deaths are up a bit but cases are down, hospitalizations are down, and the estimated active case count set another record low, now down below five thousand. Three of the four seven-day averages are again at their lowest observed values, while the hospitalization average continues trending downward.

The front page of today's Boston Globe featured a story about how it's safe for most vaccinated people to go mask-free - for now:

A few weeks ago, some feared that Governor Charlie Baker was lifting COVID-19 restrictions too soon. But now disease trackers say that Massachusetts appears to be in a good position to hold the deadly coronavirus at bay — and for most fully vaccinated people to return to their normal lives.

In the first week since most state restrictions were lifted, Massachusetts is reporting near-record low numbers of new infections, and more than half of residents are fully vaccinated. Those promising trends are emerging as the state heads into a season where people are more likely to be outside, where fresh, circulating air makes it less likely to breathe in aerosols from someone who is infected.

"At this point we are in nice weather and there is no evidence to suggest we have problematic" new strains of the virus in Massachusetts, said Dr. Joshua Barocas, an infectious diseases specialist at Boston Medical Center. "We also have one of the highest vaccination rates in the whole country, so it's probably fine for now" for vaccinated people to go about their lives mask-free.

But Barocas and others caution that people shouldn't get complacent: the virus roared back last fall after a deep summertime drop in cases. And huge swaths of the world remain unvaccinated, increasing the risk that a new strain of the virus could develop just as more places are opening up and travel increases. Today's vaccines have provided remarkable protection so far, but it's unclear if they will continue to be effective against future variants, he said.

At the same time, public health leaders warn that significantly lower vaccination rates in communities of color, along with higher numbers of infections, have left people in some pockets of the state far more vulnerable than others.

Barocas, who is vaccinated, said he would feel comfortable eating in a restaurant, as well as walking around without a mask. But he and other physicians noted that millions of Americans with a compromised immune system may still be at risk for serious complications from COVID, despite being vaccinated, and will need to continue taking precautions.

[ ... ]

Disease trackers say it's safe for vaccinated people to sample the new freedom that comes from the end of the mask mandate and most other limits on business and social interaction.

"Go to your favorite restaurant, but eat outside if you are still concerned,” said Dr. Daniel McQuillen, a senior physician of infectious diseases at Beth Israel Lahey Health and president-elect of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. "I don't think it's enough of a concern to be afraid of interacting with people if you are vaccinated. You can always wear masks inside if you wanted to.”

The concerns are more stark in many of the state's communities of color. The state's data show that 61 percent of white residents had received at least one dose of vaccine as of June 1, compared to just 45 percent of Black residents and 43 percent of Hispanic people.

Similarly, reported COVID infection rates are roughly three times higher for Hispanic residents and 1 1/2 times higher among Black residents, compared to those who are white, state data show.

[ ... ]
Barocas, the infectious disease specialist at Boston Medical Center, said he's concerned that the public focus has been so trained on getting back to normal that discussions about backup plans if the virus surges again have gotten short shrift.

"It looks really good right now in Massachusetts but things can change on a dime,” Barocas said. "And we need to have a contingency plan, a return to abnormalcy plan.”

I'll confess to being one of those folks who thought Governor Baker was jumping the gun on dropping the social-distancing and mask-wearing requirements. I'm very glad that, so far, things are going well here so far; hopefully, that will remain the case throughout the summer and into the fall.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 3 active and 981 cumulative cases as of June 3. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 11:45AM on May 28, 2021 reported 978 cumulative cases with 3 individuals in isolation, 943 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.