Local COVID-19 updates
Apr. 22nd, 2021 05:45 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 17 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 more than yesterday - up 30.8%) for a total of 17,168 deaths, 1,431 newly reported confirmed cases (61 more than yesterday - up 4.5%) for a total of 636,476 cases, and 102,071 newly reported molecular tests (25,003 more than yesterday - up 32.4%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.00%, compared to 2.14% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.59%, compared to 3.75% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 31,215 (919 less than yesterday - down 2.9%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 347 and 197 newly reported probable cases (29 less than yesterday - down 12.8%) for a total of 41,910. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 17 new deaths for a total of 17,515 and 1,628 new cases for a total of 678,386. There were 645 COVID-19 patients in hospital (41 less than yesterday - down 6.0%), 158 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 1.3%) and 96 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 4.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,043.0 (66 less than yesterday - down 6.0%), 564% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.00% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.6%), 159% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 693.0 (9 less than yesterday - down 1.3%), 347% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 28.6%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 9.0 on 4/20/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,149 non-ICU beds, of which 7,503 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 487 (5.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,159 (12.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,379 ICU beds, of which 906 (65.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 315 (22.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,168 non-ICU beds, of which 7,263 (79.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 530 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,375 (15.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,393 ICU beds, of which 860 (61.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 156 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 377 (27.1%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,419.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 18.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 719.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.29% (or 3.94% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 911 total cases, with a two-week case count of 49 cases, a daily incidence rate of 14.8 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 43,113 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 2,166 and a two-week positive test count of 53, for a percent-positive rate of 2.45 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 635,045 total cases, with a two-week case count of 24,036 cases, a daily incidence rate of 24.7 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of gray. Massachusetts is also listed as having 20,599,779 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,204,003 and a two-week positive test count of 27,648, for a percent-positive rate of 2.30 which is lower than last week.
Of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 107 are coded gray (compared to 100 last week), 29 are coded green (compared to 22 last week), and 167 are coded yellow (compared to 170 last week). The remaining 48 towns are coded red (compared to 59 last week): Adams, Ayer, Bellingham, Berkley, Brewster, Brockton, Carver, Chicopee, Dennis, Dracut, Edgartown, Fall River, Freetown, Hampden, Harwich, Haverhill, Holyoke, Lawrence, Lowell, Ludlow, Lynn, Methuen, Nantucket, New Bedford, Oak Bluffs, Palmer, Peabody, Plainville, Plymouth, Rehoboth, Revere, Seekonk, Southwick, Springfield, Sterling, Sutton, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tisbury, Townsend, Upton, Wareham, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, Westport, Winchendon, and Yarmouth.
9 cities/towns are newly coded red this week (Bellingham, Berkley, Carver, Hampden, Palmer, Peabody, Townsend, Upton, and Winchendon) and 20 cities/towns are no longer coded red this week (Avon, Barnstable, Chelmsford, Dighton, Hamilton, Hanson, Lee, Littleton, Mashpee, Middleborough, Milford, Monson, Orange, Paxton, Saugus, Somerset, Tyngsborough, West Springfield, Whitman, and Williamstown).
Of the 10 towns near my church, 4 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, and Harvard), none are coded green, 6 are coded yellow (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day changes are somewhat mixed today; deaths and cases are up, but estimated active cases and total hospitalizations are down, as are the seven-day averages for cases, hospitalizations and percent-positive. More encouragingly, all four seven-day averages are now well below their values from two weeks ago.
The city/town specific numbers are more encouraging. My town of Acton is still in the yellow category (we were in the green at the beginning of the month), but at least our numbers are trending downward. The state is down to 48 high-risk communities (from 59 last week), and the statewide daily incidence rate and percent-positive rate are both down from the previous week's values. (For some reason, the state is no longer providing a state-level color code in its raw data file; the daily incidence rate of 24.7 and percent-positive rate of 2.30 would correspond to a color code of yellow.)
Another bit of good news: Massachusetts has moved out of the red "very high risk" category at https://www.covidactnow.org/, with a seven-day daily incidence rate of 24.5 daily cases per 100k population. Now, we're merely "high risk" (the breakpoint is 25.0). Still, it's progress.
Some public health experts are seeing encouraging signs in the state's data:
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 26 active and 945 cumulative cases as of April 22. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4:45PM on April 13, 2021 reported 914 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 852 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,043.0 (66 less than yesterday - down 6.0%), 564% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 84.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.00% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.6%), 159% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 693.0 (9 less than yesterday - down 1.3%), 347% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 9.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 28.6%), 0% above the lowest observed value of 9.0 on 4/20/2021 and 95% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,149 non-ICU beds, of which 7,503 (82.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 487 (5.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,159 (12.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,379 ICU beds, of which 906 (65.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 158 (11.5%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 315 (22.8%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,168 non-ICU beds, of which 7,263 (79.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 530 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,375 (15.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,393 ICU beds, of which 860 (61.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 156 (11.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 377 (27.1%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,419.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 18.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 719.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.29% (or 3.94% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also included city/town specific information in the daily download. My town of Acton is listed as having 911 total cases, with a two-week case count of 49 cases, a daily incidence rate of 14.8 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 43,113 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 2,166 and a two-week positive test count of 53, for a percent-positive rate of 2.45 which is lower than last week. The corresponding statewide figures are 635,045 total cases, with a two-week case count of 24,036 cases, a daily incidence rate of 24.7 which is lower than last week, and a risk color code of gray. Massachusetts is also listed as having 20,599,779 total tests, with a two-week total test count of 1,204,003 and a two-week positive test count of 27,648, for a percent-positive rate of 2.30 which is lower than last week.
Of the 351 cites and towns in the Commonwealth, 107 are coded gray (compared to 100 last week), 29 are coded green (compared to 22 last week), and 167 are coded yellow (compared to 170 last week). The remaining 48 towns are coded red (compared to 59 last week): Adams, Ayer, Bellingham, Berkley, Brewster, Brockton, Carver, Chicopee, Dennis, Dracut, Edgartown, Fall River, Freetown, Hampden, Harwich, Haverhill, Holyoke, Lawrence, Lowell, Ludlow, Lynn, Methuen, Nantucket, New Bedford, Oak Bluffs, Palmer, Peabody, Plainville, Plymouth, Rehoboth, Revere, Seekonk, Southwick, Springfield, Sterling, Sutton, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tisbury, Townsend, Upton, Wareham, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, Westport, Winchendon, and Yarmouth.
9 cities/towns are newly coded red this week (Bellingham, Berkley, Carver, Hampden, Palmer, Peabody, Townsend, Upton, and Winchendon) and 20 cities/towns are no longer coded red this week (Avon, Barnstable, Chelmsford, Dighton, Hamilton, Hanson, Lee, Littleton, Mashpee, Middleborough, Milford, Monson, Orange, Paxton, Saugus, Somerset, Tyngsborough, West Springfield, Whitman, and Williamstown).
Of the 10 towns near my church, 4 are coded gray (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, and Harvard), none are coded green, 6 are coded yellow (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, Stow, and Sudbury), and none are coded red.
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day changes are somewhat mixed today; deaths and cases are up, but estimated active cases and total hospitalizations are down, as are the seven-day averages for cases, hospitalizations and percent-positive. More encouragingly, all four seven-day averages are now well below their values from two weeks ago.
The city/town specific numbers are more encouraging. My town of Acton is still in the yellow category (we were in the green at the beginning of the month), but at least our numbers are trending downward. The state is down to 48 high-risk communities (from 59 last week), and the statewide daily incidence rate and percent-positive rate are both down from the previous week's values. (For some reason, the state is no longer providing a state-level color code in its raw data file; the daily incidence rate of 24.7 and percent-positive rate of 2.30 would correspond to a color code of yellow.)
Another bit of good news: Massachusetts has moved out of the red "very high risk" category at https://www.covidactnow.org/, with a seven-day daily incidence rate of 24.5 daily cases per 100k population. Now, we're merely "high risk" (the breakpoint is 25.0). Still, it's progress.
Some public health experts are seeing encouraging signs in the state's data:
Is it possible the coronavirus is beginning to loosen its deadly grip on Massachusetts?
Encouraging signs are emerging in the coronavirus data being released by the state Department of Public Health. Experts say the data suggest that the state's vaccination campaign, which has now fully protected more than 2.1 million people, is working — even as worrisome coronavirus variants spread through the state.
[ ... ]
Samuel Scarpino, an epidemiologist at Northeastern University, said the vaccines appear to have arrived just in time to blunt a variant-fueled surge that was ramping up in March.
"In the absence of vaccines, that surge that we saw that is subsiding would have just continued to go up," he said, and the state could have seen a deadly spike like the state of Michigan saw or the one India is currently experiencing.
"A week or two slower on vaccinations, and it would have been a completely different story," he said.
Dr. David Hamer, a physician at Boston Medical Center and a Boston University epidemiologist, said the numbers appeared to show "an encouraging trend" and could be a sign that "there's enough vaccine distribution, especially in older populations, that it's showing the benefit."
But he said, "There's a competition between that more dangerous strain and the gradual protective effect of vaccines. … I think it's too early to celebrate. We need to see if these trends continue and if there's continued reduction, particularly in cases and the proportion positive. I expect that if that happens, deaths will drop down to very low numbers, which is great, and then we may be able to begin to celebrate."
Scarpino also emphasized that the state can't let up on its effort to get the population vaccinated. He said 80 to 85 percent of the state's total population needs to get shots, which means the state's current campaign will have to expand to include people younger than 16, the current age limit.
"We've got a ways to go still," he said. "Cases are going to drop. The weather's going to help. We're going to have a summer that will feel more normal than last summer. But we need to keep focused on 80 to 85 percent of everyone that lives in the state of Massachusetts getting vaccinated."
"We want to make sure we get people vaccinated before we enter into the fall, the respiratory disease season," he said.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 26 active and 945 cumulative cases as of April 22. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4:45PM on April 13, 2021 reported 914 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 852 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.