Local COVID-19 updates
Mar. 29th, 2021 05:30 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 15 newly reported confirmed deaths (14 less than yesterday - down 48.3%) for a total of 16,790 deaths, 1,464 newly reported confirmed cases (353 less than yesterday - down 19.4%) for a total of 594,242 cases, and 41,771 newly reported molecular tests (33,408 less than yesterday - down 44.4%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.37%, compared to 2.28% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 4.00%, compared to 3.90% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 31,428 (656 more than yesterday - up 2.1%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 340 and 36 newly reported probable cases (122 less than yesterday - down 77.2%) for a total of 36,789. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 15 new deaths for a total of 17,130 and 1,500 new cases for a total of 631,031. There were 675 COVID-19 patients in hospital (18 more than yesterday - up 2.7%), 159 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (18 more than yesterday - up 12.8%) and 93 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,637.0 (54 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 942% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 74.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.37% (0 more than yesterday - up 3.9%), 207% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 635.0 (12 more than yesterday - up 1.9%), 309% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 6.9%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,143 non-ICU beds, of which 6,957 (76.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 516 (5.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,670 (18.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,393 ICU beds, of which 825 (59.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 159 (11.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 409 (29.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,177 non-ICU beds, of which 7,186 (78.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 516 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,475 (16.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,399 ICU beds, of which 892 (63.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 141 (10.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 366 (26.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,174.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 28.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 661.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.73% (or 2.97% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I always like to see day-to-day declines in newly reported deaths. I also usually like to see declines in newly reported cases (like today), but not when the newly reported tests drop by a greater proportion (also like today); coming off a weekend like we are, I tend to suspect that the case drop is due to reporting wonkiness. Day-to-day hikes in the estimated active case count aren't good; neither are hikes in three of the four seven-day averages (cases, percent-positive, and hospitalization).
The new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, warned today of a feeling of "impending doom" as COVID-19 case counts and deaths are rising nationwide:
I have seen no news coverage yet of any reaction by Governor Baker - who, as one might recall, moved Massachusetts to Phase 4 of the reopening plan last Monday.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 20 active and 842 cumulative cases as of March 28. The values for March 25 were 22 active and 832 cumulative cases; for March 26, 24 active and 837 cumulative; for March 27, 26 active and 839 cumulative. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2PM on March 19, 2021 reported 813 cumulative cases with 9 individuals in isolation, 772 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,637.0 (54 more than yesterday - up 3.4%), 942% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 74.0% below the highest observed value of 6,239.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.37% (0 more than yesterday - up 3.9%), 207% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 91% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 635.0 (12 more than yesterday - up 1.9%), 309% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 84% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 27.0 (2 less than yesterday - down 6.9%), 145% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 85% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,143 non-ICU beds, of which 6,957 (76.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 516 (5.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,670 (18.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,393 ICU beds, of which 825 (59.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 159 (11.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 409 (29.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,177 non-ICU beds, of which 7,186 (78.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 516 (6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,475 (16.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,399 ICU beds, of which 892 (63.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 141 (10.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 366 (26.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,174.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 28.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 661.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.73% (or 2.97% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
I always like to see day-to-day declines in newly reported deaths. I also usually like to see declines in newly reported cases (like today), but not when the newly reported tests drop by a greater proportion (also like today); coming off a weekend like we are, I tend to suspect that the case drop is due to reporting wonkiness. Day-to-day hikes in the estimated active case count aren't good; neither are hikes in three of the four seven-day averages (cases, percent-positive, and hospitalization).
The new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, warned today of a feeling of "impending doom" as COVID-19 case counts and deaths are rising nationwide:
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Monday warned of a feeling of "impending doom" over rising numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths and issued an emotional plea for Americans who have not yet been vaccinated to "hold on a little longer" and do their part to help reduce the virus' spread.
"When I first started at the CDC about two months ago, I made a promise to you: I would tell you the truth, even if it was not the news we wanted to hear," Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a briefing by White House's COVID-19 team on Monday. "Now is one of those times when I have to share the truth, and I have to hope and trust you will listen. I'm going to pause here. I'm going to lose the script, and I'm going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom."
"We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential of where we are, and so much reason for hope," she said, noting that three effective vaccines against the virus are making their way into arms. "But right now I'm scared."
COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have increased in the previous week, Walensky said.
The seven-day average of new cases in the United States is slightly less than about 60,000 per day, which is about a 10 percent increase compared to the previous seven-day period, Walensky said. Hospitalizations and deaths due to the virus have also increased, and Walensky noted that on Sunday, the US surpassed 30 million total cases of the virus since the start of the pandemic.
When a reporter later asked her to clarify her feeling of "impending doom," Walensky said the country has seen a steady rise in cases in the past couple of weeks, an uptick that in previous months of the pandemic has indicated an incoming surge.
"We know that cases sometimes can be a week or two behind, the behaviors that lead to those cases, the mixing that leads to those cases," she said. "We know that travel is up, and I just worry that we will see the surges that we saw over the summer and over the winter again."
In an address Monday afternoon, President Biden said he shares the concerns expressed by Walensky and urged Americans to continue engaging in the public health measures that help reduce the spread of the virus.
"The war against COVID-19 is far from won," Biden said. "This is deadly serious. If we let our guard down now, we can see the virus getting worse, not better. People are letting up on precautions, which is a very bad thing."
[ ... ]
Dr. Scott Gottleib, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said in a tweet Sunday that Massachusetts is among the states that represent the "greatest concern."
Walensky on Monday explained that the trajectory of the virus in the country looks similar to the way it has progressed in other European countries like Germany, Italy, and France, which have generally trended ahead of the US in COVID-19 metrics. The US is currently where those countries were just a few weeks ago, she said.
"Since that time, those countries have experienced a consistent and worrying spike in cases," she said.
I have seen no news coverage yet of any reaction by Governor Baker - who, as one might recall, moved Massachusetts to Phase 4 of the reopening plan last Monday.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 20 active and 842 cumulative cases as of March 28. The values for March 25 were 22 active and 832 cumulative cases; for March 26, 24 active and 837 cumulative; for March 27, 26 active and 839 cumulative. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2PM on March 19, 2021 reported 813 cumulative cases with 9 individuals in isolation, 772 persons recovered and 32 fatalities.