Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates
Feb. 26th, 2021 05:24 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 46 newly reported confirmed deaths (13 more than yesterday - up 39.4%) for a total of 15,703 deaths, 1,734 newly reported confirmed cases (194 less than yesterday - down 10.1%) for a total of 547,358 cases, and 102,584 newly reported molecular tests (15,560 less than yesterday - down 13.2%). The seven day average positivity rate is 1.90%, compared to 1.85% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.10%, compared to 3.06% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 30,983 (1,134 less than yesterday - down 3.5%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 321 and 253 newly reported probable cases (73 more than yesterday - up 40.6%) for a total of 30,622. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 46 new deaths for a total of 16,024 and 1,987 new cases for a total of 577,980. There were 807 COVID-19 patients in hospital (46 less than yesterday - down 5.4%), 211 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (10 less than yesterday - down 4.5%) and 137 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 less than yesterday - down 3.5%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,166.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 0.3%), 642% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,242.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.90% (0 more than yesterday - up 2.8%), 147% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 899.0 (27 less than yesterday - down 2.9%), 480% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 77% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 37.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 5.7%), 236% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 79% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,260 non-ICU beds, of which 7,422 (80.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 596 (6.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,242 (13.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,436 ICU beds, of which 871 (60.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 211 (14.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 354 (24.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,280 non-ICU beds, of which 7,365 (79.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 632 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,283 (13.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,439 ICU beds, of which 856 (59.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 221 (15.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 362 (25.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,512.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 47.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,378.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.55% (or 4.08% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Deaths up day-to-day from yesterday, which isn't great but also isn't by itself a trend; cases down but tests down by more, proportionately, which is worry-making. Also worry-making is the rise in the seven-day averages for percent-positive rate and daily case counts. On the other hand, hospitalization counts are down, and things are still significantly better than a couple of weeks ago (let alone the beginning of the year).
So, is Charlie Baker reopening things too early? The new director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, issued a warning today that "now is not the time to relax restrictions":
Given that Dr. Walensky used to be the head of infections diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital before taking the CDC gig, her sounding the alarm does not fill me with confidence in Baker's actions.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 27 active and 766 cumulative cases as of February 25. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1PM on February 19, 2021 reported 744 cumulative cases with 33 individuals in isolation, 680 persons recovered and 31 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,166.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 0.3%), 642% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 82.0% below the highest observed value of 6,242.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 1.90% (0 more than yesterday - up 2.8%), 147% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 93% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 899.0 (27 less than yesterday - down 2.9%), 480% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 77% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 37.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 5.7%), 236% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 79% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,260 non-ICU beds, of which 7,422 (80.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 596 (6.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,242 (13.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,436 ICU beds, of which 871 (60.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 211 (14.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 354 (24.7%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,280 non-ICU beds, of which 7,365 (79.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 632 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,283 (13.8%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,439 ICU beds, of which 856 (59.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 221 (15.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 362 (25.2%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,512.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 47.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,378.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.55% (or 4.08% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Deaths up day-to-day from yesterday, which isn't great but also isn't by itself a trend; cases down but tests down by more, proportionately, which is worry-making. Also worry-making is the rise in the seven-day averages for percent-positive rate and daily case counts. On the other hand, hospitalization counts are down, and things are still significantly better than a couple of weeks ago (let alone the beginning of the year).
So, is Charlie Baker reopening things too early? The new director at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, issued a warning today that "now is not the time to relax restrictions":
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, sounded the alarm Friday over what she described as potentially stalling progress in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, noting that fast-spreading variants of the virus are becoming more prevalent in the United States.
Speaking at a White House briefing on Friday, Walensky said the stall threatens to erase progress the US has made in recent weeks in decreasing cases and hospitalizations, even as the rollout of lifesaving vaccines ramps up.
Walensky said the number of new cases has been increasing in the past three days, compared with the prior week. She also shared new estimates that suggest the more-transmissible U.K. coronavirus variant now makes up about 10 percent of US cases.
"We at CDC consider this a very concerning shift in the trajectory," Walensky said. "It's important to remember where we are in the pandemic. Things are tenuous. Now is not the time to relax restrictions."
Walensky's comments came a day after Governor Charlie Baker laid out a plan that would dramatically ease coronavirus restrictions in Massachusetts by the end of March, allowing fans to return to sports venues and easing capacity restrictions and gathering limits.
"We would not be here making this announcement if we didn't think we had seen, for ... almost two months now, positive trends on cases and hospitalizations," Baker said at his announcement Thursday.
But Walensky, the former head of infectious diseases at Mass General, on Friday signaled that it was too soon to ease restrictions and urged the public to allow for more time in vaccinating people.
"We may be done with the virus, but clearly the virus is not done with us. We cannot get comfortable or give in to a false sense of security that the worst of the pandemic is behind us, not now, not when mass vaccination is so very close," she said.
Given that Dr. Walensky used to be the head of infections diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital before taking the CDC gig, her sounding the alarm does not fill me with confidence in Baker's actions.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 27 active and 766 cumulative cases as of February 25. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1PM on February 19, 2021 reported 744 cumulative cases with 33 individuals in isolation, 680 persons recovered and 31 fatalities.