Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 55 newly reported confirmed deaths (6 more than yesterday - up 12.2%) for a total of 15,312 deaths, 1,322 newly reported confirmed cases (355 more than yesterday - up 36.7%) for a total of 533,024 cases, and 82,971 newly reported molecular tests (36,483 more than yesterday - up 78.5%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.20%, compared to 2.22% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 3.63%, compared to 3.60% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 39,916 (2,479 less than yesterday - down 5.8%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 311 and 38 newly reported probable cases (221 less than yesterday - down 85.3%) for a total of 28,912. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 56 new deaths for a total of 15,623 and 1,360 new cases for a total of 561,936. There were 1,088 COVID-19 patients in hospital (8 less than yesterday - down 0.7%), 273 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 less than yesterday - down 0.7%) and 179 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).

Today being Wednesday, the weekly data points were also updated. The average age of hospitalized patients over the past week is 70 (2 less than last week - down 2.8%) while the average age of deaths over the last two weeks is 79 (same as last week). The fourteen-day average test turnaround time (from sample draw to DPH report) is 1.76 (compared to 2.08 last week). The average daily incidence per 100k population over the last 14 days is 30.0 (compared to 38.5 last week).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,268.0 (75 less than yesterday - down 5.6%), 707% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 80.0% below the highest observed value of 6,241.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.20% (0 less than yesterday - down 1.2%), 185% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 92% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,182.0 (40 less than yesterday - down 3.3%), 662% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 70% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 47.0 (2 more than yesterday - up 4.4%), 327% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 74% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,168 non-ICU beds, of which 6,801 (74.2%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 815 (8.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,552 (16.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,443 ICU beds, of which 817 (56.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 273 (18.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 353 (24.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,116 non-ICU beds, of which 6,599 (72.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 821 (9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,696 (18.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,433 ICU beds, of which 825 (57.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 275 (19.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 333 (23.2%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,945.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 49.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,745.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.30% (or 5.14% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Oh, well. Day-to-day newly reported deaths and cases are both up, with cases back above one thousand; however, the number of tests is up even more, and the seven-day average positivity rate is down. Also dropping further are hospitalization counts, along with the fourteen-day average daily incidence and test turnaround times.

Today's big news, of course, is that starting tomorrow Massachusetts will finally allow the Phase 2 Group 2 residents to sign up for vaccinations:

State officials are nearly doubling the number of Massachusetts residents who are eligible for COVID-19 shots, announcing that residents age 65 to 74 and those with two or more chronic health conditions can book vaccine appointments starting Thursday.

The newly eligible groups, which will also include residents and staff at low-income and affordable senior housing who weren't part of earlier vaccination stages, total about 1 million people. Of the 1.1 million who are already eligible, about 850,000 have received first doses of the two-dose vaccines.

"These two groups that we're now opening up the vaccination process to represent approximately 1 million people," Governor Charlie Baker said during an afternoon briefing Wednesday. "Unless we see a massive increase in shipments from the feds, it will take us at least a month for people in these new groups to be able to book their first vaccine appointment."

He said that as soon as the federal government indicates Massachusetts is getting a bigger vaccine supply, "we'll be ready and we'll make sure to incorporate that into the delivery community that we've been working with and will obviously let everybody know, so that they can take advantage of that."

[ ... ]

Secretary of Health and Human Services Marylou Sudders said in an earlier briefing that Baker administration officials received word from the federal government Tuesday night that, after weeks of being limited to weekly shipments of 108,000 first doses, Massachusetts will begin getting 139,000 first doses a week starting this week, with the 31,000 extra doses coming from vaccine maker Pfizer-BioNTech.

But she urged patience, cautioning the larger supplies will almost certainly not be sufficient to vaccinate all those who want shots right away.

"Given our constrained supply, it could take more than a month for all eligible individual to secure an available appointment," Sudders said. Even with the larger vaccine shipments, the state is still "not where we need to [be to] vaccinate everyone in Massachusetts," she warned.

She also said the state is expanding the list of officially recognized comorbidities that put residents at higher risk for COVID-19, a respiratory virus, to include moderate and severe asthma.

Other qualifying medical conditions are cancer; chronic kidney disease; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Down syndrome; heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies; immunocompromised state from organ transplant; obesity pregnancy; sickle cell disease; smoking; and, type 2 diabetes.

Baker said the asthma piece of the new eligibility criteria is vitally important to reaching hard-hit communities.

"There's tons of studies that have been done that demonstrate that at-risk communities and communities of color have historically had higher rates of asthma," he said. "And a lot of that has to do with decisions that were made years ago with respect to how people chose to build neighborhoods and communities," so the "asthma issue is a legitimate issue, and it's a legitimate equity issue." Baker added, "we want it dealt with right out of the gate."

Disability rights activists commended the administration's decision to add asthma to the list of eligible health conditions. But many were ultimately disappointed other chronic illnesses and conditions, such as cystic fibrosis, HIV, and spinal cord injuries, are still being excluded.

"We're very seriously concerned. The clock is ticking," said Colin Killick, executive director of the Disability Policy Consortium in Malden. "Everyday that those conditions aren't approved and moved to the front of the line is another day when those people aren't getting vaccinated and are at risk. Therefore, it's another day people are going to die."

I personally think Baker is being too concerned about efficiency and not concerned enough about getting vaccines into hard-to-reach populations. Still, this does represent a near-doubling of the eligible population.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 26 active and 728 cumulative cases as of February 15, and has apparently not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 3PM on February 12, 2021 reported 717 cumulative cases with 25 individuals in isolation, 661 persons recovered and 31 fatalities.