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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 76 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 more than yesterday - up 28.8%) for a total of 14,698 deaths, 3,004 newly reported confirmed cases (374 less than yesterday - down 11.1%) for a total of 516,530 cases, and 113,095 newly reported molecular tests (16,414 less than yesterday - down 12.7%). The seven day average positivity rate is 2.96%, compared to 3.11% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 4.64%, compared to 4.86% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 59,162 (394 more than yesterday - up 0.7%). The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday - down 33.3%) for a total of 301 and 103 newly reported probable cases (138 less than yesterday - down 57.3%) for a total of 27,404. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 78 new deaths for a total of 14,999 and 3,107 new cases for a total of 543,934. There were 1,389 COVID-19 patients in hospital (62 less than yesterday - down 4.3%), 318 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (8 more than yesterday - up 2.6%) and 191 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than yesterday - up 1.1%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,058.0 (178 more than yesterday - up 9.5%), 1,210% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 68.0% below the highest observed value of 6,242.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 2.96% (0 less than yesterday - down 4.6%), 285% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 89% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,566.0 (43 less than yesterday - down 2.7%), 910% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 60% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 53.0 (3 more than yesterday - up 6.0%), 381% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 70% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,161 non-ICU beds, of which 6,509 (71.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,071 (11.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,581 (17.3%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,470 ICU beds, of which 795 (54.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 318 (21.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 357 (24.3%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,222 non-ICU beds, of which 6,704 (72.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,141 (12%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,377 (14.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,471 ICU beds, of which 838 (57.0%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 310 (21.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 323 (22.0%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,106.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 61.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,130.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.85% (or 6.36% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Glad to see cases drop on a day-to-day basis, but it's Sunday and weekend reporting delays may be the cause. Deaths going up isn't good news; neither is the fact that we're still above three thousand cases per day; neither is the fact that the number of estimated active cases is now on an upswing. On the other hand, that seven day positive test rate dropping below three percent is good news.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 34 active and 696 cumulative cases as of February 5, and has apparently not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 2:30PM on February 3, 2021 reported 691 cumulative cases with 30 individuals in isolation, 631 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.

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Edmund Schweppe

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