Local COVID-19 updates
Jan. 16th, 2021 05:29 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 74 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than yesterday - down 1.3%) for a total of 13,305 deaths, 5,657 newly reported confirmed cases (583 more than yesterday - up 11.5%) for a total of 444,028 cases, and 112,120 newly reported molecular tests (11,152 more than yesterday - up 11.0%). The seven day average positivity rate is 6.15%, compared to 6.45% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.40%, compared to 7.74% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 98,317 (4,720 more than yesterday - up 5.0%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 278 and 142 newly reported probable cases (309 less than yesterday - down 68.5%) for a total of 21,698. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 74 new deaths for a total of 13,583 and 5,799 new cases for a total of 465,726. There were 2,197 COVID-19 patients in hospital (4 less than yesterday - down 0.2%), 433 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (18 less than yesterday - down 4.0%) and 294 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 more than yesterday - up 0.3%).
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,570.0 (21 less than yesterday - down 0.6%), 2,173% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 43.0% below the highest observed value of 6,221.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.15% (0 less than yesterday - down 4.5%), 698% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 78% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,222.0 (14 less than yesterday - down 0.6%), 1,333% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 43% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 66.0 (same as yesterday), 500% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 63% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,327 non-ICU beds, of which 6,395 (68.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,764 (18.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,168 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,483 ICU beds, of which 731 (49.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 433 (29.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 319 (21.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,347 non-ICU beds, of which 6,432 (68.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,750 (19%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,165 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,483 ICU beds, of which 719 (48.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 451 (30.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 313 (21.1%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,773.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 52.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,254.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.67% (or 9.39% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day, deaths are down (a tiny bit); cases are up, but positivity is still trending down; alas, estimated active cases continue to rise, nearing 100k. At least the hospitalization and ICU counts are down.
When will the pandemic peak? Too soon to tell, say the folks the Boston Globe spoke to:
If they can't tell, I certainly can't.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 55 active and 618 cumulative cases as of January 15. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10:30PM on January 13, 2021 reported 596 cumulative cases with 62 individuals in isolation, 504 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.
Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,570.0 (21 less than yesterday - down 0.6%), 2,173% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 43.0% below the highest observed value of 6,221.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.15% (0 less than yesterday - down 4.5%), 698% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 78% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,222.0 (14 less than yesterday - down 0.6%), 1,333% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 43% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 66.0 (same as yesterday), 500% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 63% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.
Statewide, hospitals reported 9,327 non-ICU beds, of which 6,395 (68.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,764 (18.9%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,168 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,483 ICU beds, of which 731 (49.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 433 (29.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 319 (21.5%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,347 non-ICU beds, of which 6,432 (68.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,750 (19%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,165 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,483 ICU beds, of which 719 (48.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 451 (30.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 313 (21.1%) remained available.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,773.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 52.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,254.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 8.67% (or 9.39% excluding higher education).
The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.
Day-to-day, deaths are down (a tiny bit); cases are up, but positivity is still trending down; alas, estimated active cases continue to rise, nearing 100k. At least the hospitalization and ICU counts are down.
When will the pandemic peak? Too soon to tell, say the folks the Boston Globe spoke to:
If you've been closely following the state's COVID-19 data reports, you might now be feeling a twinge of long-overdue optimism. New infections, deaths, and hospitalizations all seem to have leveled off or even started to dip in recent days.
Could the pandemic have peaked? Is there light on the horizon? Three prominent experts had a consistent reply to those questions: No so fast. The crystal ball remains cloudy.
Unpredictable variables will determine the future path of the pandemic, especially how rapidly a new and more infectious coronavirus variant spreads in the state, whether the pace of vaccinations quickens, and if a public weary of restrictions is willing to stick with disease-prevention measures.
[ ... ]
Samuel V. Scarpino, director of Northeastern University's Emergent Epidemics Lab, said he's getting mixed signals in tracking COVID-19 in Massachusetts. "Some signs are pointing to a peak coming imminently and things improving. And others are pointing in a more concerning direction," he said.
The proportion of COVID-19 tests that are positive has been declining, which would suggest relief is coming for busy hospitals.
But people are moving about more, leaving their homes to shop and go to restaurants, according to data from a company that tracks people's movements, Scarpino said. This kind of mobility "correlates with increased cases," he said.
Massachusetts faces a rare moment of opportunity right now, in Scarpino's view. Infections are going down, people are getting vaccinated, and federal relief money has arrived. Strong action could quickly end the surge, he said.
If the state were to tighten restrictions now, while people have aid money to hold them over, the disease could be stopped in its tracks, he said. A few weeks of sacrifice, he said, would enable life to quickly return to normal. Otherwise, he believes, it could take six to eight months.
[ ... ]
Marc Lipsitch, director of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said the lower number of new infections in recent days may merely result from the testing centers being overwhelmed. He said he has heard of people with symptoms unable to get tested.
The vaccine rollout is happening too slowly to make a difference before the spring, Lipsitch said. But the availability of federal relief money might make it easier to impose restrictions that will reduce transmission. "Politics could change things in that way as well as by improving the response," he said.
If they can't tell, I certainly can't.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 55 active and 618 cumulative cases as of January 15. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10:30PM on January 13, 2021 reported 596 cumulative cases with 62 individuals in isolation, 504 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.