Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates
Dec. 27th, 2020 05:33 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 100 newly reported confirmed deaths (54 more than yesterday - up 117.4%) for a total of 11,852 deaths, 2,973 newly reported confirmed cases (4,451 less than yesterday - down 60.0%) for a total of 338,704 cases, and 41,331 newly reported molecular tests (67,114 less than yesterday - down 61.9%). The seven day average positivity rate is 6.28%, compared to 6.32% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.32%, compared to 7.35% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 78,688 (602 more than yesterday - up 0.8%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 258 and 161 newly reported probable cases (92 less than yesterday - down 36.4%) for a total of 14,032. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 100 new deaths for a total of 12,110 and 3,134 new cases for a total of 352,736. There were 2,156 COVID-19 patients in hospital (79 more than yesterday - up 3.8%), 416 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (same as yesterday) and 230 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 less than yesterday - down 0.9%).
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,782 (106 less than yesterday - down 3.7%), 1,671% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 42% below the highest observed value of 4,778 on December 7. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.3% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.7%), 714% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 77% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,069 (34 more than yesterday - up 1.7%), 1,234% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 47% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 50 (6 more than yesterday - up 13.6%), 354% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 72% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,375, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,605, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.6% (or 7.66% excluding higher education).
Huh. Cases and tests both way down compared to yesterday (which, remember, was two days worth of data); on the other hand, newly reported deaths were way up. Positivity is down slightly; the hospitalization count is up slightly. Looking at the longer-term averages, the new cases average is noticeably down while the hospitalization and new deaths averages are both up, suggesting that the cases from the Thanksgiving surge are working their way through the system; I might feel a bit better about that if a Christmas surge didn't seem likely:
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 47 active and 495 cumulative cases as of December 24; apparently it hasn't been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 9PM on December 15 reported 433 cumulative cases with 63 individuals in isolation, 345 persons recovered and 25 fatalities.
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,782 (106 less than yesterday - down 3.7%), 1,671% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 42% below the highest observed value of 4,778 on December 7. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 6.3% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.7%), 714% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 77% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,069 (34 more than yesterday - up 1.7%), 1,234% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 47% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 50 (6 more than yesterday - up 13.6%), 354% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 72% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 3,375, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 44, the 7 day hospitalization average was 1,605, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.6% (or 7.66% excluding higher education).
Huh. Cases and tests both way down compared to yesterday (which, remember, was two days worth of data); on the other hand, newly reported deaths were way up. Positivity is down slightly; the hospitalization count is up slightly. Looking at the longer-term averages, the new cases average is noticeably down while the hospitalization and new deaths averages are both up, suggesting that the cases from the Thanksgiving surge are working their way through the system; I might feel a bit better about that if a Christmas surge didn't seem likely:
Current and former U.S. health officials took to the airwaves Sunday to warn Americans of a potential jump in covid-19 cases after the holidays.
"A surge upon a surge" may be on the way after the Christmas and New Year's period, Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious-disease doctor, warned on CNN's "State of the Union."
Former U.S. Food and Drug Administration chief Scott Gottlieb said on CBS's "Face the Nation" that "we have a grim month ahead of us" after a recent increase in cases, with hospitalizations rising on a lag of a few weeks.
The comments came as the number of confirmed cases in the U.S. approach 19 million and deaths are more than 332,000. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases warned that the U.S. is at a "very critical point" in combating the pandemic after many Americans ignored guidance to avoid travel.
[ ... ]
Health officials are on alert for a more infectious covid strain that's emerged in the U.K., Germany, Switzerland, Ireland and Japan, although there's no clear evidence it results in more severe cases of the disease.
Travelers coming to the U.S. from the U.K. face more restrictions because of the new variant, with the U.S. insisting on testing negative for covid-19 within 72 hours of departing the country.
Gottlieb, a board member of Pfizer Inc., said that he believes the U.K. strain is already in the U.S., and in "a reasonable number at this point."
He saw signs that U.S. new daily covid-19 cases are starting to plateau, but since hospitalizations and the number of deaths tend to lag by two to three weeks, "we have a very difficult month ahead of us."
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 47 active and 495 cumulative cases as of December 24; apparently it hasn't been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 9PM on December 15 reported 433 cumulative cases with 63 individuals in isolation, 345 persons recovered and 25 fatalities.