Local COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 47 newly reported confirmed deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 11,057 deaths, 4,968 newly reported confirmed cases (507 less than yesterday - down 9.3%) for a total of 274,897 cases, and 99,719 newly reported molecular tests (538 more than yesterday - up 0.5%). The seven day average positivity rate is 5.60%, compared to 5.72% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.67%, compared to 7.78% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 67,754 (2,013 more than yesterday - up 3.1%). The state also reported 3 newly reported probable deaths (2 more than yesterday - up 200.0%) for a total of 250 and 321 newly reported probable cases (141 more than yesterday - up 78.3%) for a total of 10,828. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 50 new deaths for a total of 11,307 and 5,289 new cases for a total of 285,725. There were 1,670 COVID-19 patients in hospital (65 more than yesterday - up 4.0%), 334 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (25 more than yesterday - up 8.1%) and 170 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 more than yesterday - up 3.0%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,022 (47 less than yesterday - down 1.5%), 1,824% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 36% below the highest observed value of 4,717 on December 4. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.6% (0 less than yesterday - down 2.0%), 623% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 80% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,563 (34 more than yesterday - up 2.2%), 908% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 60% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 45 (same as yesterday), 309% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 75% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,607, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 24, the 7 day hospitalization average was 958, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.6% (or 5.16% excluding higher education).

Day-to-day cases down, which is nice; also good to see positivity down, even a little bit. But the day-to-day hospitalization counts are all up, as are the longer-term hospitalization trend, both of which are bad, and the absolute levels are still way too high.

That's got some health experts worried that Massachusetts may have to go to a full lockdown by New Year's to keep from overwhelming the hospital system:

Governor Charlie Baker likes to rely on data to make decisions, especially when it comes to managing the COVID-19 crisis. So what does the data say?

Let's look at just one number: 20 percent. That's the rate of positive diagnoses among those who got tested for the first time over the past seven days, according to an analysis of state data by Sam Scarpino, director of Northeastern's Emergent Epidemics Lab.

Scarpino zeroes in on this data point, instead of the more typical positivity rate among all those tested, because it's especially important: It is a leading predictor of hospitalizations. These are the people who got tests because they have symptoms or were exposed.

This number has been on the rise, but over the past two weeks jumped from 10 percent to 20 percent. By Scarpino's estimate, a 20 percent positivity rate could translate into an increase of hospitalizations as high as 50 percent over the next two weeks.
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That will compound an already troubling trend: COVID hospitalizations in Massachusetts increased 158 percent in recent weeks, according to state data.

Add all that up, and it almost certainly means one thing: More drastic restrictions, if not a shutdown, are coming, or should be, by the end of December, according to hospital leaders and epidemiologists.

"I would be very shocked if there are not more significant rollbacks or closures of the state by Jan. 1," said Eric Dickson, chief executive of UMass Memorial Health Care in Worcester.

Baker has made one thing clear throughout the pandemic: He will not allow the hospital system in Massachusetts to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. He hops on a call twice a week with hospital chief executives to get updates on positivity rates, COVID hospitalizations, ventilator capacity, and more. He's versed in their data and is in his element, as a former health care executive and health secretary in the Weld administration.

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In a note to staff Tuesday, Kevin Tabb, chief executive of Beth Israel Lahey Health, noted the dramatic increase in COVID-19 patients at the state's second largest hospital system.

"We have entered a more urgent stage of firefighting," Tabb wrote. "Although we are at less than half of our April high-water mark, the trend is alarming in that we have seen a near doubling in our number of [COVID-19] inpatients over the past 14 days."

Dickson, the UMass Memorial CEO, is worried about handling this second wave based on the current rate of hospitalizations. Before Thanksgiving, the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients increased about 10 percent a month; now it is about 20 percent.

"Boy, if we grow 20 percent a week between now and February 1, that is the brink," said Dickson. "I don't know if we can manage that."

UMass Memorial helped set up a 220-bed field hospital at the DCU Center in Worcester and has put a call out for retirees and health care workers to staff it through www.umassmemorialresponds.com.

Like other hospital executives, Dickson is less worried about having enough beds, and more about having enough staff to support COVID-19 treatment. His workforce is exhausted and stretched thin, some redeployed to virus testing or vaccine distribution. And, not everyone is trained or able to work in a COVID unit. Of a staff of about 8,000 doing clinical work, about 200 cannot work either because they have the virus or are in quarantine due to an exposure, he added.

[ ... ]

Scarpino, the Northeastern professor, is worried the state may have no choice left but a total shutdown.

"The real concern is there might not be any options left except for a lockdown," said Scarpino.

I don't envy Baker's position one bit, but he's running out of time to get ahead of things before Massachusetts runs out of hospital staff.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 74 active and 413 cumulative cases as of December 11. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 4PM on December 8 reported 389 cumulative cases with 60 individuals in isolation, 307 persons recovered and 22 fatalities.