Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 41 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 more than yesterday - up 10.8%) for a total of 10,715 and 5,356 newly reported confirmed cases (164 more than yesterday - up 3.2%) for a total of 242,812. The seven day average positivity rate is 5.40%, compared to 5.44% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.45%, compared to 7.48% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 54,199 (2,828 more than yesterday - up 5.5%). The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (2 more than yesterday) for a total of 238 and 263 newly reported probable cases (36 less than yesterday - down 12.0%) for a total of 9,205. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 43 new deaths for a total of 10,953 and 5,619 new cases for a total of 252,017. There were 1,428 COVID-19 patients in hospital (34 more than yesterday - up 2.4%), 283 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (5 more than yesterday - up 1.8%) and 138 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 3.0%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,142 (287 more than yesterday - up 10.1%), 1,901% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 13% below the highest observed value of 3,603 on December 3. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.4% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.9%), 597% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 80% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,264 (54 more than yesterday - up 4.5%), 715% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 68% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 35 (2 more than yesterday - up 6.1%), 218% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 80% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,715, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 24, the 7 day hospitalization average was 850, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.2% (or 5.13% excluding higher education).

Well, shit. Deaths and cases up day-to-day, and positivity down slightly. But this is still far, far higher than even a couple of weeks ago. Now the seven-day average number of new cases is over three thousand, and it's still climbing.

In maybe-sorta-kinda-good news, there's still room for more COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals:

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Massachusetts is accelerating as the pandemic reaches new heights, but hospitals in the state are still far from getting overwhelmed.

For now, local hospitals have been able to avoid the level of crisis seen in other states, including neighboring Rhode Island, where hospitals filled up this week.

"The surge is definitely here," said Steve Walsh, president of the Massachusetts Health & Hospital Association. "The real difference this time is that every hospital now has a plan in place. They know how to quickly scale up beds if necessary. They know how to keep COVID treatment separate from non-COVID treatment. They've been learning about this now for months."

[ ... ]

Within the rising numbers, there are hopeful signs. The share of hospital patients in ICUs is lower than in the spring, partly because the people getting sick skew younger and are less likely to need intensive care. Doctors also know how to better manage the course of COVID-19 and treat patients before they reach critical condition. So for now, they are not worried about running out of ventilators.

[ ... ]

The current number of hospitalizations is far below the peak of nearly 3,965 COVID patients in April, at the height of the first surge.

Statewide, 20 percent of medical beds and 38 percent of ICU beds are still available, according to state officials.

But to alleviate pressure on the health care system, the state is opening a field hospital Sunday at the DCU Center in Worcester, with at least one more planned for Lowell.

[ ... ]

At Mass General Brigham, the state's largest hospital system, internal models look two weeks into the future, said Dr. Peter Dunn, a vice president at Massachusetts General Hospital who works on capacity management. The models pull together data from local hospitals, other states, and around the globe.

It's too early to see the full effects of Thanksgiving, and how much holiday gatherings and travel contributed to higher cases of COVID-19. But Mass General Brigham's models still show a steady rise in hospitalizations that is not as steep as what happened in the spring, or as severe as what hospitals in other parts of the country are experiencing now.

"We have not seen us tracking in the same way as . . . other hard-hit areas in the United States at this point," Dunn said.

Not every hospitalized patient with the virus represents the same strain on the health care system, Dunn noted. At Mass. General, for example, about 30 percent of COVID patients are at the hospital primarily for some other reason — but also happen to test positive for COVID. They are mostly asymptomatic.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 52 active and 409 cumulative cases as of December 5. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 6PM on November 30 reported 334 cumulative cases with 44 individuals in isolation, 268 persons recovered and 22 fatalities.