Local COVID-19 updates
Dec. 3rd, 2020 05:54 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeYesterday was bad. Today is worse, as we break the all-time record for newly reported cases set ... just yesterday.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 49 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 6.5%) for a total of 10,637 and 6,477 newly reported confirmed cases (1,864 more than yesterday - up 40.4%) for a total of 232,264. The seven day average positivity rate is 5.29%, compared to 4.94% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.32%, compared to 6.85% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 49,225 (3,835 more than yesterday - up 8.4%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 237 and 198 newly reported probable cases (216 less than yesterday - down 52.2%) for a total of 8,643. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 50 new deaths for a total of 10,874 and 6,675 new cases for a total of 240,907. There were 1,324 COVID-19 patients in hospital (65 more than yesterday - up 5.2%), 261 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than yesterday - down 1.1%) and 137 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (11 more than yesterday - up 8.7%).
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,184 (457 more than yesterday - up 26.5%), 1,291% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 21% below the highest observed value of 2,732 on November 25. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.3% (0 more than yesterday - up 7.1%), 583% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 81% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,151 (51 more than yesterday - up 4.6%), 642% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 71% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 31 (3 more than yesterday - up 10.7%), 181% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 83% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,758, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 25, the 7 day hospitalization average was 792, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.2% (or 5.24% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 337 cases, with a two week case count of 66 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 19.9 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 18,281 total tests, with 2,326 total tests and 77 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.31% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 225,787 cases, with a two week case count of 34,793 new cases in the last fourteen days (lower than last week), a daily incidence rate of 35.7 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. The state is also listed as having 8,566,262 total tests, with 1,084,537 total tests and 40,465 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.73% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.
Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 96 are coded gray, 20 are coded green, and 138 are coded yellow. The remaining 97 cities/towns are coded red: Abington, Acushnet, Attleboro, Barnstable, Bellingham, Berkley, Billerica, Blackstone, Boxford, Brockton, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Dartmouth, Dighton, Douglas, Dracut, Edgartown, Everett, Fall River, Fitchburg, Framingham, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Granby, Hampden, Hanover, Haverhill, Holden, Holyoke, Hopedale, Hudson, Lancaster, Lawrence, Leicester, Lenox, Leominster, Littleton, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Malden, Marion, Mendon, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleton, Milford, Millbury, Monson, New Bedford, Newbury, Norfolk, North Attleborough, North Brookfield, Palmer, Paxton, Peabody, Pittsfield, Plainville, Randolph, Rehoboth, Revere, Rutland, Salisbury, Saugus, Seekonk, Shirley, Somerset, Southborough, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Sterling, Stoneham, Stoughton, Sturbridge, Sutton, Swansea, Taunton, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, Upton, Uxbridge, Wareham, Wenham, West Boylston, West Springfield, Westport, Whitman, Wilmington, and Woburn.
Using the old definitions (based purely on case counts), of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 68 would be coded gray (less than 5 total reported cases in the last 14 days), 0 would be coded green (less than 4.0 daily cases per 100k population), 7 would be coded yellow (4.0 to 8.0 daily cases per 100k population), while the remaining 276 cities/towns would be coded red (high-risk; more than 8.0 daily cases per 100k population).
Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 1 is coded gray (Harvard), 2 are coded green (Bolton, and Sudbury), 6 are coded yellow (Acton, Berlin, Boxborough, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow), and 1 is coded red (Hudson). Under the original risk codes, of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, none are coded gray, none are coded green, 1 is coded yellow (Sudbury), and 9 are coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow).
The first page of today's daily dashboard reads:
Today is the first day the state has ever reported more than five thousand new cases, and the first day in months that the positivity rate has been above five percent. The count of red-zone communities up, as well, from 81 last week to 97 this week.
And this soaring count probably doesn't even include cases spawned by Thanksgiving travel:
Note that the quoted article was posted to the Globe's website before today's data was released.
Stay at home. Mask up. And for God's sake, Governor Baker, close the damn gyms and indoor dining.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 53 active and 363 cumulative cases as of December 3. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 6PM on November 30 reported 334 cumulative cases with 44 individuals in isolation, 268 persons recovered and 22 fatalities.
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 49 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 more than yesterday - up 6.5%) for a total of 10,637 and 6,477 newly reported confirmed cases (1,864 more than yesterday - up 40.4%) for a total of 232,264. The seven day average positivity rate is 5.29%, compared to 4.94% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 7.32%, compared to 6.85% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 49,225 (3,835 more than yesterday - up 8.4%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 237 and 198 newly reported probable cases (216 less than yesterday - down 52.2%) for a total of 8,643. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 50 new deaths for a total of 10,874 and 6,675 new cases for a total of 240,907. There were 1,324 COVID-19 patients in hospital (65 more than yesterday - up 5.2%), 261 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (3 less than yesterday - down 1.1%) and 137 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (11 more than yesterday - up 8.7%).
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,184 (457 more than yesterday - up 26.5%), 1,291% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 21% below the highest observed value of 2,732 on November 25. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 5.3% (0 more than yesterday - up 7.1%), 583% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 81% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 1,151 (51 more than yesterday - up 4.6%), 642% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 71% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 31 (3 more than yesterday - up 10.7%), 181% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 83% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.
Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,758, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 25, the 7 day hospitalization average was 792, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.2% (or 5.24% excluding higher education).
Today being Thursday, the state also released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 337 cases, with a two week case count of 66 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 19.9 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 18,281 total tests, with 2,326 total tests and 77 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.31% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 225,787 cases, with a two week case count of 34,793 new cases in the last fourteen days (lower than last week), a daily incidence rate of 35.7 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. The state is also listed as having 8,566,262 total tests, with 1,084,537 total tests and 40,465 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.73% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.
Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 96 are coded gray, 20 are coded green, and 138 are coded yellow. The remaining 97 cities/towns are coded red: Abington, Acushnet, Attleboro, Barnstable, Bellingham, Berkley, Billerica, Blackstone, Boxford, Brockton, Charlton, Chelmsford, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Dartmouth, Dighton, Douglas, Dracut, Edgartown, Everett, Fall River, Fitchburg, Framingham, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Granby, Hampden, Hanover, Haverhill, Holden, Holyoke, Hopedale, Hudson, Lancaster, Lawrence, Leicester, Lenox, Leominster, Littleton, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Malden, Marion, Mendon, Merrimac, Methuen, Middleton, Milford, Millbury, Monson, New Bedford, Newbury, Norfolk, North Attleborough, North Brookfield, Palmer, Paxton, Peabody, Pittsfield, Plainville, Randolph, Rehoboth, Revere, Rutland, Salisbury, Saugus, Seekonk, Shirley, Somerset, Southborough, Southbridge, Southwick, Spencer, Springfield, Sterling, Stoneham, Stoughton, Sturbridge, Sutton, Swansea, Taunton, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, Upton, Uxbridge, Wareham, Wenham, West Boylston, West Springfield, Westport, Whitman, Wilmington, and Woburn.
Using the old definitions (based purely on case counts), of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 68 would be coded gray (less than 5 total reported cases in the last 14 days), 0 would be coded green (less than 4.0 daily cases per 100k population), 7 would be coded yellow (4.0 to 8.0 daily cases per 100k population), while the remaining 276 cities/towns would be coded red (high-risk; more than 8.0 daily cases per 100k population).
Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 1 is coded gray (Harvard), 2 are coded green (Bolton, and Sudbury), 6 are coded yellow (Acton, Berlin, Boxborough, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow), and 1 is coded red (Hudson). Under the original risk codes, of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, none are coded gray, none are coded green, 1 is coded yellow (Sudbury), and 9 are coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow).
The first page of today's daily dashboard reads:
PLEASE NOTE: Today's case numbers include 680 cases tested by one Massachusetts-based laboratory prior to December 1. The delay in reporting was caused by a technical issue with the software used by that laboratory's reporting vendor.So today's case count is a bit inflated. However, even backing out the 680 "old" cases from today's numbers means 5,797 new cases today - which is still 1,184 more cases than yesterday, which was - momentarily - the single highest daily case count of the entire pandemic.
Today is the first day the state has ever reported more than five thousand new cases, and the first day in months that the positivity rate has been above five percent. The count of red-zone communities up, as well, from 81 last week to 97 this week.
And this soaring count probably doesn't even include cases spawned by Thanksgiving travel:
Massachusetts on Wednesday reported a record number of new COVID-19 cases, but experts warn that the worst is yet to come.
Of the 4,613 cases reported, many are likely unrelated to Thanksgiving travel and gatherings, epidemiologists said. Since it can take up to 14 days for a person to test positive for COVID-19 after exposure — and sometimes far longer for an infected person to become seriously ill — current data do not yet reflect the expected post-holiday wave of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, they said.
'It's only been seven days [since Thanksgiving], and we have an additional week from now to start seeing all of the cases of COVID-19 from the holiday, so it is very concerning that we're already seeing a record number of cases,' said Dr. Jose Figueroa, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 'It suggests that things are only going to get worse.'
[ ... ]
Because transmission in the state was already accelerating ahead of the holidays, it is and will remain difficult to tease out the various factors behind this week's sharp increase in cases, said Dr. Barry Bloom, a professor and former dean of the Chan School of Public Health.
'It's all in the context of things going up even before Thanksgiving. That's the dilemma,' he said. 'It's hard to see an increase on top of an increase.'
Case counts over the next two weeks will better reflect the holiday's impact on the steepness of the state's upward curve, Bloom said. But he warned that even then, it will be difficult to say exactly where or how individual people were infected, given the high level of community spread.
Note that the quoted article was posted to the Globe's website before today's data was released.
Stay at home. Mask up. And for God's sake, Governor Baker, close the damn gyms and indoor dining.
The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 53 active and 363 cumulative cases as of December 3. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 6PM on November 30 reported 334 cumulative cases with 44 individuals in isolation, 268 persons recovered and 22 fatalities.
