Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 12 newly reported confirmed deaths (21 less than yesterday - down 63.6%) for a total of 10,110 and 1,967 newly reported confirmed cases (109 less than yesterday - down 5.3%) for a total of 184,511. The seven day average positivity rate is 3.17%, compared to 3.18% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 5.25%, compared to 5.26% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 31,768 (1,394 more than yesterday - up 4.6%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (3 less than yesterday) for a total of 230 and 197 newly reported probable cases (140 more than yesterday - up 245.6%) for a total of 5,928. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 12 new deaths for a total of 10,340 and 2,164 new cases for a total of 190,439. There were 781 COVID-19 patients in hospital (44 more than yesterday - up 6.0%), 159 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (same as yesterday) and 74 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (4 more than yesterday - up 5.7%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,916, 1,120% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 17% below the highest observed value of 2,300 on April 20. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.2%, 309% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 89% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 693, 347% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 21, 90% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9. and 88% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

New cases and deaths are down day-to-day, which is good; however, that's tempered by today being Monday (and thus coming off a weekend with relatively low reporting rates). Total active cases keep going up, though, and that's bad enough; positivity rates are noticeably higher than yesterday's dashboard numbers, which is worse. (Yesterday's dashboard listed a seven-day average positivity rate of 3.06%; excluding higher education, the rate was 5.16.) Patient counts in hospital and on ventilators both went up as well.

The good news: another vaccine appears to be highly effective in early test results:

Moderna said Monday that early data from a late-stage clinical trial indicates that its COVID-19 vaccine was nearly 95 percent effective at preventing infections, a remarkable showing for any vaccine, let alone one based on novel technology.

Although the analysis is only preliminary, the Cambridge biotech said it hopes to seek emergency use of the experimental vaccine for some people "in the coming weeks" and expects to have about 20 million doses to ship in the United States by the end of the year. That would be enough for 10 million people, given that the vaccine requires two doses.

The first interim review of data in the study of more than 30,000 volunteers indicated that the vaccine showed about the same effectiveness as a rival one being tested by the pharmaceutical giant Pfizer. That company reported a week ago that two doses of its vaccine appeared to be more than 90 percent effective.

[ ... ]

The analysis by an independent monitoring board does not mean an effective vaccine is imminent, but the early results are impressive. The board analyzed the first 95 cases of COVID-19 among volunteers who received two shots four weeks apart and then went about their daily lives. Half of all participants in the trial at 100 sites across the country got the actual vaccine. The other half got a placebo.

On Sunday afternoon, the board informed Moderna that 90 of the 95 people with COVID-19 infections had received the placebo, while only five had gotten the actual vaccine, according to Ray Jordan, a Moderna spokesman. The results indicate that the vaccine has an efficacy rate of 94.5 percent, the company said.

[ ... ]

Moderna also reported Monday that its vaccine candidate remains stable at standard refrigerator temperatures of 36 degrees to 46 degrees Fahrenheit for 30 days, up from the company’s previous estimate of seven days. And it remains stable for up to six months in a freezer set at minus-4 degrees Fahrenheit, the company said.

One of the concerns about the messenger RNA vaccine developed by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech is that it must be kept at minus-94 degrees Fahrenheit or lower. Those cold storage requirements have raised serious questions about whether hospitals could safely store the vaccine and how easily it could be shipped around the world.

The ability to store the Moderna vaccine in commonly used pharmaceutical freezers and refrigerators "would enable simpler distribution and [provide] more flexibility to facilitate wider-scale vaccination in the United States and other parts of the world," said Juan Andres, chief of technical operations at Moderna.

The bad news: We're still weeks (if not months) away from actually getting shots in arms. Stay masked up, folks.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 10PM on November 10, the town of Acton reported 256 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 23 individuals in isolation, 212 recovered and 21 fatalities.