Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 15 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 more than yesterday - up 7.1%) for a total of 9,532 deaths, 827 newly reported confirmed cases (83 more than yesterday - up 11.2%) for a total of 141,474 cases, and 17,654 new patients tested by molecular tests (2,066 more than yesterday - up 13.3%) for a total of 2,532,287 individuals tested. There were 70,708 new molecular tests reported (9,438 less than yesterday - down 11.8%) with a total of 5,239,651 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 4.7%, compared to 4.8% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 221 deaths, and 1 newly reported probable case (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 3,014 cases. The state also reported 186 patients tested by antibody tests (same as yesterday) for a total of 124,340 patients, and 498 patients tested by antigen tests (286 more than yesterday - up 134.9%) for a total of 162,655 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 16 new deaths for a total of 9,753 and 828 new cases for a total of 144,488.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 648.7 compared to 575.4 last week (up 12.7%) and 587.4 two weeks ago (up 10.4%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 18.7 compared to 12.3 last week (up 52.3%) and 16.1 two weeks ago (up 15.9%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 14,591.0 compared to 16,039.9 last week (down 9.0%) and 16,028.1 two weeks ago (down 9.0%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 4.4% compared to 3.6% last week and 3.7% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.2%, 59% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 494, 64% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 0, 0 above the lowest observed value of 0 on October 18. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 18, 89% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Not good news. Day-to-day deaths and cases up, while seven-day averages are all going in bad directions (cases, deaths and percent-positive all up, tests down). At least there aren't any hospitals using surge capacity ... today.

And Massachusetts is still doing far better than most of the country. According to at least one epidemiologist, the worst could still be to come:

A nationwide surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations is raising once again questions about the trajectory of the coronavirus pandemic. In the last week, America has seen, on average, more than 56,000 cases a day, the highest since July, and there have been more than 8.1 million US cases — the most of any nation — since the start of the pandemic. As an epidemiologist, I'm frequently asked: "Are we in the second wave?" This is the wrong question. America's preoccupation with characterizing this pandemic in waves signifies we have yet to understand what it will take to end this pandemic.

"Wave" is not a term epidemiologists typically use to describe an unfolding event. It's less of a scientific term and more of a metaphor used to describe visible peaks in the number of cases or number of deaths. When epidemiologists do use the word "wave," they typically don't do so as data are rolling in. We won't know until this pandemic is over whether or how many waves occurred.

The public's fascination with pandemic waves probably stems from the famous observation that three peaks in deaths occurred during the 1918 influenza pandemic — an event to which COVID-19 is sometimes compared. It appears that there was a sharp increase in flu-related deaths in the spring of 1918 that abated over the summer but was followed by a much larger and more deadly surge in the fall of 1918. In the late winter of 1918, a third peak in the number of deaths occurred — larger than the first but smaller than the second.

Why there were three distinct waves during the 1918 influenza pandemic is a matter of scientific debate, but it appears clear the coronavirus is not following a similar pattern. The surge in COVID-19 cases in early spring somewhat decreased in April and May, but was closely followed by sharp increases in June. Increasing restrictions in hard-hit states probably helped reduce infections again in August. But September brought another surge, with nearly all states now seeing increases.

[ ... ]

We now know what it takes to stop the transmission of the coronavirus too. Other countries have used testing, case isolation, contact tracing, and infection-prevention practices, like physical distance and masks, to bring and keep case numbers under control. Taiwan has used these measures so adeptly that they've managed to avoid broad shutdowns. But the United States has so far been unwilling to implement targeted public health measures. Incidence is driven by inaction.

After lifting stay-at-home orders, Arizona saw a 151 percent increase in cases over a two-week period. Governor Doug Ducey responded by implementing a mask mandate, closing bars, and expanding restrictions on other businesses. These measures are credited with achieving a 75 percent reduction in cases by August. By the start of October, every county in the state met the state's criteria for reopening. Over the last two weeks, cases have begun to increase once again. When asked about the increases, Ducey said, "[T]he expectation should be that case[s] are going to rise" and offered assurances that such increases would not necessarily lead to expanded restrictions. When restrictions have been proven successful, especially when the stakes are life or death, it doesn't make sense to ignore them.

The US response to COVID-19 continues along on the wrong path. In the nine months since the first case was reported in the United States, more than 220,000 have died. If we stay on this course, the worst could still be to come

To end this pandemic, we need to stop asking about waves. We need to accept that there is nothing inevitable about it. The rise and fall in COVID-19 cases is largely under our direct control.

Yay. </sarcasm>

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 9:15PM on October 14, the town of Acton reported 217 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 191 recovered and 21 fatalities.