Local COVID-19 updates

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As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 12 newly reported confirmed deaths (1 less than yesterday - down 7.7%) for a total of 9,413 deaths, 632 newly reported confirmed cases (133 less than yesterday - down 17.4%) for a total of 137,565 cases, and 13,744 new patients tested by molecular tests (5,057 less than yesterday - down 26.9%) for a total of 2,443,894 individuals tested. There were 42,116 new molecular tests reported (25,279 less than yesterday - down 37.5%) with a total of 4,857,515 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 4.6%, compared to 4.1% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 217 deaths, and 117 newly reported probable cases (117 more than yesterday) for a total of 2,847 cases. The state also reported 107 patients tested by antibody tests (32 less than yesterday - down 23.0%) for a total of 123,089 patients, and 3,492 patients tested by antigen tests (3,131 more than yesterday - up 867.3%) for a total of 154,194 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 13 new deaths for a total of 9,630 and 749 new cases for a total of 140,412.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 600.9 compared to 588.0 last week (up 2.2%) and 482.4 two weeks ago (up 24.5%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 12.9 compared to 16.1 last week (down 20.4%) and 13.1 two weeks ago (down 2.2%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,176.9 compared to 15,836.9 last week (up 2.1%) and 16,374.3 two weeks ago (down 1.2%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 3.7% compared to 3.8% last week and 3.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.2%, 51% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 509, 68% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 3, 3 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 13, 36% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Day-to-day confirmed deaths down by one, but a probable death leaves the total level with yesterday. Confirmed cases are also down, but newly-tested people is down more, so the ratio grows ever higher. The really bad news is in the seven-day average case count, which is back on the upswing; as well as the state's "key metrics", which are mostly trending upward. The state is still far better off than during the worst part of the spring, but things are going in entirely the wrong direction.

And we get the town-by-town numbers tomorrow. Joy.

Governor Baker had a press conference today, saying in part "There's no question that there will be more cases this fall":

Governor Charlie Baker on Tuesday said the state is ready for additional COVID-19 cases this fall and urged residents to remain vigilant against transmitting or catching the virus.

"There's no question that there will be more cases this fall," Baker said during his regular State House press conference. "We've done the work. We're prepared to respond to this virus like never before. ... What we need from you is continued vigilance as we head into the ninth month of fighting this virus."

Baker added that "the single biggest issue that's driving case growth is familiar people being familiar with each other" and that people in their 20s and 30s are seeing an uptick in cases.

"We're not even necessarily talking about college kids," Baker said, citing young people who are out of college but who are living together in close quarters in apartments. They're not physically distancing at events like rooftop gatherings, he said, "and they're passing the virus around."

[ ... ]

The governor also praised the state's many colleges for their robust testing programs for students and staff.

Colleges are currently conducting about 25,000 tests daily, Baker said, and no college in Massachusetts has seen more than 200 cases, a figure he called "remarkable" considering the size of the student populations.

Last week's positivity rate for Massachusetts colleges and universities, Baker said, was just 0.1 percent. Statewide, Health and Human Services chief Marylou Sudders said during the briefing, about 60,000 people are currently being tested daily.

Sudders and Baker both said Massachusetts remains a national leader on the testing front, and Sudders said the state's Stop The Spread free testing campaign targeting hard-hit communities will be extended through December.

Coronavirus cases are continuing to be reported this week at levels the state hasn't seen in months.

The seven-day rolling average of daily confirmed coronavirus cases climbed last Tuesday and Wednesday to 588, then dipped in the next few days, but it ticked back up to 575 Monday.

The seven-day average had been as low as 151 on June 21. The seven-day average has surpassed 400 for the past 16 days and 300 for the past 28 days.

The state is doing far better than the dark days of late April, when the rolling average reached more than 2,200 cases daily. But some experts have predicted a harrowing fall and winter is ahead nationally.

Cassandra Pierre, an assistant professor of medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and a physician at Boston Medical Center, said recent coronavirus data has been "incredibly concerning."

She said she was worried that as colder weather arrives, people will be bringing more of their activities and gatherings indoors, creating "many more opportunities for close-range transmission of potentially infectious respiratory droplets."

The holiday season will also pose challenges, she said.

She said she hoped the current uptick would subside "so it gives us a little bit more of a buffer zone for the infections to come. If not, then I think it will lead to an even larger increase and potentially a second wave and maybe an even earlier second wave."

"We all acknowledge [a second wave] is on the horizon, we just don't know how far off it is," she said.

No question about it; the second wave is coming - assuming it's not already here.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 9:15AM on October 7, the town of Acton reported 212 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 3 individuals in isolation, 188 recovered and 21 fatalities.