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As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 8 newly reported confirmed deaths (12 less than yesterday - down 60.0%) for a total of 9,323 deaths, 454 newly reported confirmed cases (11 less than yesterday - down 2.4%) for a total of 133,359 cases, and 12,785 new patients tested by molecular tests (1,520 more than yesterday - up 13.5%) for a total of 2,330,656 individuals tested. There were 45,378 new molecular tests reported (8,829 more than yesterday - up 24.2%) with a total of 4,416,428 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 3.6%, compared to 4.1% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 215 deaths, and 41 newly reported probable cases (9 less than yesterday - down 18.0%) for a total of 2,598 cases. The state also reported 156 patients tested by antibody tests (89 more than yesterday - up 132.8%) for a total of 121,620 patients, and 1,995 patients tested by antigen tests (432 more than yesterday - up 27.6%) for a total of 141,849 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 8 new deaths for a total of 9,538 and 495 new cases for a total of 135,957.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 588.0 compared to 482.4 last week (up 21.9%) and 348.7 two weeks ago (up 68.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.1 compared to 13.1 last week (up 22.8%) and 14.6 two weeks ago (up 10.8%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 15,836.9 compared to 16,374.3 last week (down 3.3%) and 17,878.3 two weeks ago (down 11.4%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 3.8% compared to 3.0% last week and 2.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 42% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 468, 55% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 4, 4 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 10, 7% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Day-to-day numbers today are a bit more encouraging than in the past few days, with confirmed deaths down, confirmed cases down (very slightly), newly tested individuals up, and thus the ratio of folks testing positive down. OTOH, the seven-day averages continue to show bad trends over the past couple of weeks. The state's "key metrics" continue to be well above their lowest observed values from late August and early September.

I watched a recording of Governor Baker's press conference in Salem this afternoon. At around 18:35 he was asked about the new upticks in case counts; he put a lot of emphasis in his response on the state's high test rates, claiming an average of around 65k tests per day. There's a testing-by-date graph on page 7 of the daily dashboard that, at first glance, would support that claim - for weekdays, at least. (Weekends are running more around 20-25k tests/day.) I'll have to dig into the raw data to see if I can get a better sense of the trends.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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