Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today [1], the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (13 less than yesterday - down 56.5%) for a total of 9,275 deaths, 753 newly reported confirmed cases (45 more than yesterday - up 6.4%) for a total of 131,214 cases, and 21,451 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,292 more than yesterday - up 18.1%) for a total of 2,273,812 individuals tested, with a total of 4,200,018 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 3.5%, compared to 3.9% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 215 deaths, and 8 newly reported probable cases (38 less than yesterday - down 82.6%) for a total of 2,417 cases. The state also reported 392 patients tested by antibody tests (225 more than yesterday - up 134.7%) for a total of 120,977 patients, and 508 patients tested by antigen tests (1,329 less than yesterday - down 72.3%) for a total of 134,197 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 9,490 and 761 new cases for a total of 133,631.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 556.7 compared to 392.4 last week (up 41.9%) and 338.3 two weeks ago (up 64.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.4 compared to 14.4 last week (up 13.9%) and 12.6 two weeks ago (up 30.7%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 16,223.1 compared to 16,246.7 last week (down 0.1%) and 17,272.1 two weeks ago (down 6.1%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 3.4% compared to 2.3% last week and 2.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 46% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 432, 43% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 3, 3 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 14, 54% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

The good news first: day-to-day, deaths are down again (both confirmed and probable), and the number of people tested rose faster than the number of new cases. That said, the confirmed case counts are still up day-to-day, the seven-day averages are all still moving in the wrong direction, and three of the four "key metrics" the state is supposedly watching like a hawk are all still 40+% above their lowest observed values from late August and early September.

Meanwhile, Governor Baker is apparently still determined to allow more indoor business venues to reopen; the Boston Globe Editorial Board says "Not so fast":

In spite of managing to contain the spread of the coronavirus for much of the summer, Massachusetts has recently seen an uptick in positive cases. On Sept. 23, the state recorded more new cases than any other day since May — a tally that has been surpassed twice since. But despite the recent and alarming trend, which has many experts concerned, Governor Charlie Baker has decided to ease social distancing rules — allowing restaurants to begin serving parties of 10 indoors, up from a maximum of six, and reopening some venues like trampoline parks and roller rinks. This could potentially lead to more outbreaks as flu season approaches and medical capacity is constrained. At the same time, Baker has urged reluctant school districts in low-risk areas to return to in-person learning. If the governor's goal to get kids back to school in a safe environment is sincere, he should reconsider his priorities.

By now, the governor should know that when it comes to COVID-19 amid a failed federal response, the Commonwealth can't have it both ways. Letting indoor businesses gather more people — known to increase risk of community spread — undermines schools' ability to safely return to in-person instruction, because schools are not isolated bubbles. If their surrounding communities are engaging in risky behavior, that makes students and teachers more vulnerable to contracting the virus as well.

But Baker doesn't seem to be bothered by these potential risks. He's allowing indoor performance venues to reopen in most of the state next week, with up to 250 people at a show in lower-risk areas. Gyms, libraries, and museums will also be able to increase their capacities, all while the state sees a resurgence in positive cases. "It is absolutely too early to ease these restrictions, especially as we start to see cases increase again," said Brooke Nichols, a professor and health economist at the Boston University School of Public Health. "This is valuing businesses over education. It's just a decision that's been made in this country over and over and over. And personally, I don't think it's the right choice."

Baker should instead focus on containing unnecessary indoor gatherings so that schools can safely reopen in person and stay open (as he's urged many districts to do.) Anything else would make a successful return to the classroom even more of a fantasy than it already is. "We don't want to increase community incidence because of dining and then make schools unsafe," Nichols said.

The governor's office emphasizes that the state will be easing restrictions in low-risk areas. "Our data shows that much of Massachusetts has seen little to no COVID cases over the past several weeks," a spokesperson said in an e-mail. "Our reopening guidance reflects this and keeps tighter restrictions where they are needed and enables those with low cases to cautiously advance. Individual municipalities may impose even stricter restrictions."

But low-risk areas — as defined by Massachusetts' color-coded map — can quickly turn into high-risk ones if people are encouraged to socialize in groups indoors. "[These] zones are a false sense of security," Nichols said. "Infectious diseases don't care about borders at all."

That's why Baker's plan hinges on a faulty premise: While he is leaving higher-risk areas out of his reopening plan — nearly two dozen cities including Boston are in "red zones" and will therefore not loosen restrictions under the state's new guidelines — people living in those communities can simply travel to a low-risk zone in order to go to a concert or dine with a bigger party indoors. It's difficult to see how limiting a reopening plan to "safer" areas, in a state where people can move freely, mitigates much risk, if any.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.

[1] Well, more like 4:30PM.