Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 8 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 less than yesterday - down 27.3%) for a total of 9,210 deaths, 450 newly reported confirmed cases (83 more than yesterday - up 22.6%) for a total of 129,243 cases, and 14,124 new patients tested by molecular tests (1,075 more than yesterday - up 8.2%) for a total of 2,219,798 individuals tested, with a total of 3,988,224 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 3.2%, compared to 2.8% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 213 deaths, and 62 newly reported probable cases (1 less than yesterday - down 1.6%) for a total of 2,341 cases. The state also reported 146 patients tested by antibody tests (94 more than yesterday - up 180.8%) for a total of 120,133 patients, and 1,450 patients tested by antigen tests (974 less than yesterday - down 40.2%) for a total of 130,459 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 8 new deaths for a total of 9,423 and 512 new cases for a total of 131,584.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 482.4 compared to 348.7 last week (up 38.3%) and 315.9 two weeks ago (up 52.7%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 13.1 compared to 14.6 last week (down 9.8%) and 11.9 two weeks ago (up 10.8%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 16,374.3 compared to 17,878.3 last week (down 8.4%) and 14,722.4 two weeks ago (up 11.2%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 3.0% compared to 2.0% last week and 2.1% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.0%, 26% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 423, 40% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 2, 2 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 12, 29% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

I'm always happy to see deaths come down on a day-to-day basis; I'm much less happy to see confirmed cases going up, and even less happy to see the number of newly tested persons going up proportionately less, driving the percentage of folks testing positive back above three percent. (We briefly hit one percent back on August 14.) Five percent generally means "out of control". Worse, the seven-day averages for cases and percent-positive are continuing upward trends, as are the state's' "key metrics" of seven-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate and three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital.

The top-of-the-fold front page story in today's Boston Globe? The same one I noticed last night (although with a different headline): As rate of positive coronavirus tests increases in Massachusetts, some experts urge caution

As COVID-19 outbreaks ravaged much of the country over the summer, Massachusetts was largely spared. But one week into fall, epidemiologists see signs that the virus is once again on the rise here, with some warning that the state should at least press pause on plans to further loosen restrictions.

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"I have to say that I'm getting concerned about Massachusetts in a way that I have not been ... in months," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

The apparent uptick comes as the state continues its efforts to ease social distancing restrictions placed on residents and business owners in the spring. An order permitting restaurants to serve parties of up to 10 indoors and seat patrons at bars took effect on Monday, a step that two epidemiologists urged Governor Charlie Baker to reconsider.

Several metrics give cause for concern, Jha said, but it's the test positivity rate that he called "a yellow light . . . a cautionary light." Infectious disease experts have said that number is particularly valuable in assessing the presence of the virus in a community, but tricky to track since it can be calculated multiple ways with vastly different results. It is one of six key indicators that the state has said it uses to guide its decision-making.

So, with those alarm bells ringing and case counts climbing again today, what does Governor Baker do? Why, announce that most cities and towns can now take the next steps in reopening businesses, of course!

Gov. Charlie Baker's office said Tuesday that starting Oct. 5, communities in the lower risk COVID-19 category can allow some performance venues to increase their capacity, along with gyms, museums, and libraries.

Lower risk communities on Oct. 5 will be permitted to open indoor performance venues with 50 percent capacity and a maximum of 250 people; increase the outdoor venue capacity to 50 percent with the same 250-person ceiling; open attractions such as trampolines, obstacle courses, roller rinks and laser tag at 50 percent capacity; and open fitting rooms in all types of retail stores, the statement said.

In addition, Baker's office said, the lower risk communities will be able to increase capacity to 50 percent at museums, libraries and driving and flight schools.

"On May 18, the Baker-Polito Administration released a four-phased plan to reopen the economy based on sustained improvements in public health data," the statement said. "Last month, the Administration began releasing data on the average daily COVID cases per 100,000 residents, average percent positivity, and total case counts, for all 351 Massachusetts cities and towns. Lower risk communities are defined as cities and towns that have not been a 'red' community in any of the last three weekly Department of Public Health (DPH) weekly reports."

Speaking during an afternoon briefing Tuesday at the State House, Baker said that officials through contact tracing efforts and observing other states have determined that the activities that'll be permitted Oct. 5 in lower risk cities and towns "have not led to significant [virus] transmission in other states."

Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito said a community must be in a lower risk category for three straight weeks before it can take advantage of the loosened restrictions. And, Polito said, if a municipality goes back into a high-risk category, it will have to revert to the more restrictive guidelines.

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Separately, the Baker administration on Tuesday announced a revised gatherings order for the state. According to the revised order, the limit for indoor gatherings remains at a maximum of 25 people for all communities, while the limit for outdoor gatherings in private back yards will remain at 50 people for all cities and towns.

"Outdoor gatherings at event venues and in public settings will have a limit of 50 people in Step I communities, and a limit of 100 people in lower risk, Step II communities," the statement said.

I get that the governor wants to let as many businesses as possible reopen as much as possible. But is this really the right step to take when not just the case counts but the percentage of people testing positive are climbing? Especially on the day when, according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, the world has surpassed one million confirmed deaths?

The town of Acton has not posted an update today, but did do so last night. As of 8:15PM yesterday, the town of Acton is reporting 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities; that's four more cases, three more persons currently in isolation, and one more person recovered compared to the previous report on September 22. It is good to see that no new deaths from COVID-19 have occurred in town since May 21.