Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 11 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 less than yesterday - down 15.4%) for a total of 9,202 deaths, 367 newly reported confirmed cases (227 less than yesterday - down 38.2%) for a total of 128,793 cases, and 13,049 new patients tested by molecular tests (5,016 less than yesterday - down 27.8%) for a total of 2,205,674 individuals tested, with a total of 3,931,219 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.8%, compared to 3.3% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 213 deaths, and 63 newly reported probable cases (63 more than yesterday) for a total of 2,279 cases. The state also reported 52 patients tested by antibody tests (190 less than yesterday - down 78.5%) for a total of 119,987 patients, and 2,424 patients tested by antigen tests (1,878 more than yesterday - up 344.0%) for a total of 129,009 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 11 new deaths for a total of 9,415 and 430 new cases for a total of 131,072.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 438.6 compared to 369.1 last week (up 18.8%) and 299.0 two weeks ago (up 46.7%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 13.6 compared to 13.9 last week (down 2.1%) and 12.1 two weeks ago (up 11.8%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 15,661.6 compared to 18,258.4 last week (down 14.2%) and 14,385.7 two weeks ago (up 8.9%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 2.7% compared to 2.1% last week and 2.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.9%, 13% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 393, 30% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 2, 2 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 13, 36% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

The day-to-day changes are mostly for the better, with (confirmed) cases, deaths and percent-positive all down. OTOH, it's a Monday, which typically sees drops in such numbers. However, the longer-term trends are definitely for the worse. So are the state's "key metrics"; while the absolute values are still low, there's an obvious upward trendline to both the state's positive-test-rate and number-of-patients-in-hospital averages.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 11:15AM on September 22, the town of Acton reported 203 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 2 individuals in isolation, 180 recovered and 21 fatalities.

Comments

[edschweppe]

And, hey, I'm not the only one noticing this!
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/09/28/nation/rate-positive-tests-increases-mass-some-experts-urge-caution/

As COVID-19 outbreaks ravaged much of the country over the summer, Massachusetts was largely spared. But one week into fall, epidemiologists see signs that the virus is once again on the rise here, with some warning that the state should at least press pause on plans to further loosen restrictions.

Statistics that track the spread of the coronavirus have shown a concerning trend in recent weeks, experts said: The 554 new cases identified on Sept. 23 were the most on a single day since May; daily new case totals surpassed 500 for three days in a row for the first time in many months; more patients are hospitalized now than at any point since mid-August.

But another metric included in the state's daily data report tracking the pandemic is even more revealing, epidemiologists said. The percentage of individuals whose tests for COVID-19 come back positive has surpassed 3 percent in recent days, more than tripling from a low of 0.9 percent a month ago.

"I have to say that I'm getting concerned about Massachusetts in a way that I have not been . . . in months," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

[ ... ]

The state calculates positivity rate in two ways, and in its closely watched daily COVID-19 data dashboard highlights a measure that simply divides the number of positive tests by the number of total tests administered on that day. That measure has held steady at roughly 1 percent for weeks.

But a relatively recent surge in the repeated testing of asymptomatic people, such as students on college campuses, has drastically increased the overall number of negative tests each day. Removing these repeated tests from the equation shows the positivity rate has climbed since late August, reaching 3.4 percent in recent days.

Experts said the latter calculation better reflects the scope of the pandemic in Massachusetts today.

"Both [metrics are] somewhat informative, but the individuals one is more indicative of what's happening now, probably," said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiology professor at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and a member of Baker's COVID-19 commission.

"From a disease transmission perspective, from a risk perspective, this calculation that they're leading with [on the COVID-19 dashboard] is likely a substantial underestimate," said Samuel Scarpino, a Northeastern University epidemiologist. "If you have 10,000 tests a day coming from the colleges and universities who all have a very low percent positivity, then it's very easy to end up with a biased positivity for the state."