Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 8 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than yesterday - down 46.7%) for a total of 9,059 deaths, 431 newly reported confirmed cases (12 more than yesterday - up 2.9%) for a total of 124,570 cases, and 22,217 new patients tested by molecular tests (5,427 less than yesterday - down 19.6%) for a total of 2,046,523 individuals tested, with a total of 3,264,873 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 1.9%, compared to 1.5% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 210 deaths, and 23 newly reported probable cases (13 more than yesterday - up 130.0%) for a total of 2,012 cases. The state also reported 317 patients tested by antibody tests (29 less than yesterday - down 8.4%) for a total of 117,770 patients, and 1,317 patients tested by antigen tests (134 less than yesterday - down 9.2%) for a total of 115,162 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 9 new deaths for a total of 9,269 and 454 new cases for a total of 126,582.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 338.3 compared to 309.1 last week (up 9.4%) and 307.1 two weeks ago (up 10.1%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 12.6 compared to 11.3 last week (up 11.4%) and 14.4 two weeks ago (down 12.9%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 17,272.1 compared to 15,210.6 last week (up 13.6%) and 20,798.9 two weeks ago (down 17.0%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 2.0% compared to 2.0% last week and 1.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.8%, 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 17. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 356, 18% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 5, 5 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 12, 30% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Yeesh. Day-to-day deaths are down, but so are tests, while cases are actually up; that makes for a nasty jump in the percent-positive rate. The seven-day averages aren't any more encouraging; cases consistently up, deaths up from last week, and percent-positive up from two weeks ago. Even less happy-making is the upward trend in three of the state's four key metrics; the state's percent-positive calculation is at its lowest observed value, but the other three are all climbing.

Remember back in August when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed their COVID-19 testing guidance to say that if you've been in contact with someone else who's infected, but you don't yourself have any symptoms, you don't need a test? Remember how that blew up into a storm of controversy and people assuming that the Trump Administration political types had dictated that change? Well, they're going back to their original guidance:

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials on Friday dropped a controversial piece of coronavirus guidance and said anyone who has been in close contact with an infected person should get tested.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention essentially returned to its previous testing guidance, getting rid of language posted last month that said people didn't need to get tested if they didn't feel sick. That change had set off a rash of criticism from health experts who couldn't fathom why the nation's top public health agency would say such a thing amid the pandemic.

It was "not consistent with the basic principles of controlling an epidemic,"said Dr. Silvia Chiang, a pediatric infectious diseases expert at Brown University who applauded the change announced Friday.

The CDC now says anyone who has been within 6 feet of an infected person for at least 15 minutes should get a test. In a statement, the agency called the changes a "clarification" that was needed "due to the significance of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission."

Agency officials declined additional comment.

Health officials were evasive about why they had made the change in August, and some outside observers speculated it was forced on the CDC by political appointees within the Trump administration.

At the time, administration officials said the language originated at the CDC but the decision came out of meetings of the White House coronavirus task force. Dr. Brett Giroir, an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, said many federal leaders outside the agency were involved in "lots of editing, lots of input." He said it was difficult to attribute the final language to any one source.

The New York Times, citing internal federal documents and unnamed sources, on Thursday reported that the guidance was placed on the CDC's website over the objections of agency scientists.

Public health experts have noted that testing the contacts of infected people is a core element of efforts to keep outbreaks in check, and that a large percentage of those infected with the coronavirus exhibit no COVID-19 symptoms.

And here's that New York Times article reporting that yes, indeed, the August changes were made by the Trump Administration, without scientific review and against the scientists' objections:

A controversial guideline saying people without Covid-19 symptoms didn't need to get tested for the virus came from H.H.S. officials and skipped the C.D.C.'s scientific review process.

A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency's website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.

The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virus. It came at a time when public health experts were pushing for more testing rather than less, and administration officials told The Times that the document was a C.D.C. product and had been revised with input from the agency's director, Dr. Robert Redfield.

But officials told The Times this week that the Department of Health and Human Services did the rewriting and then "dropped" it into the C.D.C.'s public website, flouting the agency's strict scientific review process.

"That was a doc that came from the top down, from the H.H.S. and the task force," said a federal official with knowledge of the matter, referring to the White House task force on the coronavirus. "That policy does not reflect what many people at the C.D.C. feel should be the policy."

The document contains "elementary errors" — such as referring to "testing for Covid-19," as opposed to testing for the virus that causes it — and recommendations inconsistent with the C.D.C.'s stance that mark it to anyone in the know as not having been written by agency scientists, according to a senior C.D.C. scientist who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of a fear of repercussions.

[ ... ]

A new version of the testing guidance, expected to be posted Friday, has also not been cleared by the C.D.C.'s usual internal review for scientific documents and is being revised by officials at Health and Human Services, according to a federal official who was not authorized to speak to reporters about the matter.

Similarly, a document, arguing for "the importance of reopening schools," was also dropped into the C.D.C. website by the Department of Health and Human Services in July and is sharply out of step with the C.D.C.'s usual neutral and scientific tone, the officials said.

The information comes mere days after revelations that political appointees at H.H.S. meddled with the C.D.C.'s vaunted weekly reports on scientific research.

"The idea that someone at H.H.S. would write guidelines and have it posted under the C.D.C. banner is absolutely chilling," said Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting director at the Centers for Disease Control in 2009.

Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the agency during the Obama administration, said, "H.H.S. and the White House writing scientifically inaccurate statements such as 'don't test all contacts' on C.D.C.'s website is like someone vandalizing a national monument with graffiti."

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm really getting sick and tired of Donald Trump screwing around with medical advice in the middle of an at-best-imperfectly controlled pandemic to pretend that, hey, everything's just fine and dandy and we should reelect him because of the wonderful job he's doing.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 3:45PM on September 16, the town of Acton reported 202 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 2 individuals in isolation, 179 recovered and 21 fatalities.