Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 6 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 less than yesterday - down 33.3%) for a total of 9,016 deaths, 286 newly reported confirmed cases (51 more than yesterday - up 21.7%) for a total of 123,425 cases, and 11,796 new patients tested by molecular tests (405 less than yesterday - down 3.3%) for a total of 1,980,030 individuals tested, with a total of 3,075,812 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.4%, compared to 1.9% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 209 deaths, and 27 newly reported probable cases (8 more than yesterday - up 42.1%) for a total of 1,968 cases. The state also reported 154 patients tested by antibody tests (87 more than yesterday - up 129.9%) for a total of 116,752 patients, and 1,379 patients tested by antigen tests (387 more than yesterday - up 39.0%) for a total of 110,849 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 6 new deaths for a total of 9,225 and 313 new cases for a total of 125,393.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 315.9 compared to 296.6 last week (up 6.5%) and 338.3 two weeks ago (down 6.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 11.9 compared to 14.6 last week (down 18.6%) and 14.6 two weeks ago (down 18.6%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 14,722.4 compared to 17,507.3 last week (down 15.9%) and 21,381.4 two weeks ago (down 31.1%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 2.1% compared to 1.8% last week and 1.6% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.9%, 2% above the lowest observed value of 0.9% on September 12. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 308, 2% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11, 26% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

It's mixed-bag Tuesday, apparently. Fewer deaths are always good news, but confirmed cases going up while molecular tests go down is always bad news. The seven-day averages are going in a good direction as far as deaths are concerned, but not for cases, tests or percent-positive. And even the state's "key metric" for positivity (which is a lot cheerier than the straight ratio I'm following) is now trending upwards. (And, because they keep going back in time to update test data for their calculation, their "lowest observed value" on September 12 was revised upwards to 0.9%.)

That COVID-19 outbreak at Boston College? Things are apparently bad enough that the state has taken over contact tracing:

The state has taken over all contact tracing at Boston College amid growing anger and skepticism on campus about the school's ability to control the spread of COVID-19.

As of Monday, a state collaborative of contact tracers, set up earlier this year to help cities and towns track and isolate the spread of the virus, has assumed control of tracking down cases among students, faculty, and staff at the college.

The unprecedented move is an effort to ensure that the state's infection rate remains low and to coordinate tracing work among the towns of Newton, Brookline, and Boston, which surround BC, Governor Charlie Baker said at a press conference on Tuesday. The state, Baker said, could handle tracing across multiple jurisdictions more effectively.

"There are reasons why protocols are in place. Because when they're not in place, stuff happens," Baker said. "When people don't play by these rules and somebody has the virus, it spreads."

Epidemiologists have expressed alarm over Boston College's apparent outbreak. The college has had a total of 115 positive cases since Aug. 16, though many have come in recent days. Last week, at least 13 members of the school's swimming and diving teams tested positive for COVID-19. On Sept. 8 alone, 22 students tested positive. Most of the spike in cases were tied to two off-campus gatherings where students failed to wear masks or practice physical distancing, the university said.

BC's administration defended its approach, pointing out that the daily count of new cases on campus had dropped to five on Tuesday. The infected students had mild symptoms, and BC officials were quickly able to identify through contact tracing others to attended the gatherings, school officials said.
Related: BC swim and dive team has a cluster of COVID cases

The outbreak sparked anger and anxiety among students and neighbors, who demanded more testing at the school and expressed frustration that they'd only learned about the swim and dive team outbreak through media reports.

Dr. Rochelle Walensky, chief of the infectious disease division at Massachusetts General Hospital, told the Globe last week that it is hard to know the full scope of the outbreak at BC.

"Now they are on a massive chase," Walensky said, "and time is not on their side."

Yay. </sarcasm>

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8AM on September 9, the town of Acton reported 200 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 3 individuals in isolation, 176 recovered and 21 fatalities.

Comments

[jhetley]

Maine CDC is thinking about letting Massachusetts out of COVID jail. You need to hold the line for at least two weeks straight.

Yes, we want your dollars that much . . .

[edschweppe]

Just in time for all our back-to-school outbreaks. Good plan, that!