edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
[personal profile] edschweppe
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 11 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 less than yesterday - down 15.4%) for a total of 8,827 deaths, 301 newly reported confirmed cases (127 more than yesterday - up 73.0%) for a total of 118,784 cases, and 18,740 new patients tested by molecular tests (2,146 more than yesterday - up 12.9%) for a total of 1,732,768 individuals tested, with a total of 2,404,426 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 1.6%, compared to 1.0% yesterday. The state also reported 124 patients tested by antibody tests (15 less than yesterday - down 10.8%) for a total of 112,727 and 226 patients tested by antigen tests (936 less than yesterday - down 80.6%) for a total of 86,838.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 337.6 compared to 301.7 last week (up 11.9%) and 276.9 two weeks ago (up 21.9%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 15.7 compared to 17.7 last week (down 11.1%) and 13.1 two weeks ago (up 19.6%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 21,541.4 compared to 20,977.7 last week (up 2.7%) and 19,068.3 two weeks ago (up 13.0%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 1.5% compared to 1.4% last week and 1.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.0%, 2% above the lowest observed value of 1.0% on August 29. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 303, 0% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on August 29. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 11, 0% above the lowest observed value of 11 on August 28.

It's always nice to see deaths go down day-by-day, and it's always nice to see tests go up day-by-day. But cases were up by a lot, as was the percent-positive ratio - and that's on the day after a weekend, which typically sees fewer new cases reported than normal, just because not all the reporting is as timely on the weekend. That seven-day trend in daily new cases is continuing to look bad, and bodes poorly for what the trend in deaths will look like in another couple of weeks. Three of the state's four key metrics hit their lowest observed values on August 29 and have now ticked up incrementally. I am more than slightly nervous about where these numbers will go later this week, once the weekend reporting lag wears off.

I guess the town of Acton is now only doing updates on Mondays? As of 3 PM today, the town of Acton is reporting 198 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 4 individuals in isolation, 173 recovered and 21 fatalities; that's three more cases, two fewer persons currently in isolation, and five more persons recovered compared to the previous report on August 24. Still no new deaths; may that trend continue.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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