Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 23 newly reported confirmed COVID-19 deaths (for a total of 7,958), 163 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 104,391), and 7,940 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 880,320), with a total of 1,116,271 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.1%. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (for a total of 214), 47 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 5,447), and 704 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 75,302), In total, the state reported 23 new deaths (for a total of 8,172) and 210 new cases (for a total of 109,838).

I do not like the death count going up again on a weekend, and I especially do not like the percent-positive ratio going up again. (Yes, the case count is down, but so is the number of tests, and it's the ratio that worries me more.) One bit of good news was that the number of hospitals using surge capacity went back down to three.

On the other hand, these are still much better numbers than a month or two ago, and much better numbers than those in other states. Take California, for example; a month ago, it was a case study in how to manage the pandemic. Today, it's more of a case study in what not to do:

A state that was once considered a road map for fighting COVID-19 now looks more like a warning sign.

Just one month ago, California seemed to have the coronavirus pandemic under control. Its cities were among the first in the country to implement strict lockdowns, and the state escaped the worst of COVID-19 in the spring. But in recent weeks, a dramatic surge in cases has torn through the state, from the beaches of San Diego to the streets of San Francisco.

For other states that now seem to have their outbreaks under control — Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey among them — California’s seeming reversal of fortune raises a troubling question: Is success sure to be fleeting?

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In late spring, California seemed to be on track to contain the virus. Despite having more than five times the population of Massachusetts, the Golden State entered June with about the same number of COVID-19 cases and fewer deaths.

On June 1, Massachusetts reported 100,805 total COVID-19 cases and 7,035 deaths. California counted 113,006 cases and 4,251 deaths. Throughout the spring, the number of deaths each day in Los Angeles County, which has a larger population than Massachusetts, never reached above the mid-50s. Meanwhile, the daily death count in Massachusetts neared 200 in late April, the worst point of the outbreak here.

Now, the two states’ fortunes seem to have reversed. As Massachusetts sees a steady decline in infections and deaths, California is facing a crisis. Total infections have almost doubled in one month, and hospitals in several parts of the state, Los Angeles included, are rapidly approaching capacity.

Los Angeles County recorded 2,903 new cases on Monday, its highest count yet. The county is now the center of the state’s outbreak, accounting for nearly half of all confirmed cases. California now surpasses every state except New York for its number of reported COVID-19 infections.

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“I think we have to view this with a longer time horizon and recognize that we can control this epidemic. It’s been done in other countries, and it’s been done in certain places here in this country, but it really will rely on adherence to some basic principles,” Simon said.

Scarpino said he hopes Massachusetts will remain vigilant about observing safety measures, even as outbreaks worsen around the country, because residents have already seen how destructive COVID-19 can be. That knowledge, he said, is something worth holding on to.

“From a societal perspective, we have a lot more collective wisdom about how serious this disease can be, and we’ve all had to learn and adapt our lives as best as possible to dealing with those kinds of restrictions,” he said.

“There’s probably almost none of us that want to go back to that lockdown scenario, and so I think all of those things contribute to state and local leaders taking the public health measures more seriously.”

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 9:30PM on Sunday 6/28, the town reported 173 cumulative cases with 0 individuals in isolation, 152 persons recovered and 21 fatalities.