Local (and not-so-local) COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 24 newly reported confirmed COVID-19 deaths (for a total of 7,776 confirmed deaths), 160 newly reported confirmed cases (for a total of 102,922) and 10,318 new patients tested by molecular tests (for a total of 800,541), with a total of 1,009,203 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 1.6%. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (for a total of 187), 66 newly reported probable cases (for a total of 4,915), and 908 patients tested by antibody tests (for a total of 66,753). In total, the state reported 25 new deaths (for a total of 7,963) and 226 new cases (for a total of 107,837).

Deaths down and test counts up, which are good; but cases up and percent-positive test ratio up, which is bad. We finally broke the million-tests barrier - yay us. But the state still isn't hitting anywhere near the 30k tests per day that we supposedly have capacity for. At least the three-day average patient counts and confirmed deaths are dropping again.

Nationally, things are getting worse; now several of the states that rushed to reopen their economies are "pausing" their reopenings as their case counts soar:

NEW YORK (AP) — The coronavirus crisis deepened in Arizona on Thursday, and the governor of Texas began to backtrack after making one of the most aggressive pushes in the nation to reopen, as the daily number of confirmed cases across the US closed in on the peak reached during the dark days of late April.

While greatly expanded testing probably accounts for some of the increase, experts say other measures indicate the virus is making a comeback. Daily deaths, hospitalizations and the percentage of tests that are coming back positive also have been rising over the past few weeks in parts of the country, mostly in the South and West.

In Arizona, 23% of tests conducted over the past seven days have been positive, nearly triple the national average, and a record 415 patients were on ventilators. Mississippi saw its daily count of confirmed cases reach record highs twice this week.

"It’s not a joke. Really bad things are going to happen," said Dr. Thomas Dobbs, Mississippi’s health officer.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas, whose state was among the first to reopen, put off lifting any more restrictions and reimposed a ban on elective surgeries in some places to preserve hospital space after the number of patients statewide more than doubled in two weeks. Some Arizona hospitals also halted elective surgeries. Nevada’s governor ordered face masks be worn in public, Las Vegas casinos included.

"The last thing we want to do as a state is go backwards and close down businesses," Abbott said.

The US reported 34,500 COVID-19 cases Wednesday, slightly fewer than the day before but still near the high of 36,400 reached April 24, according to a count kept by Johns Hopkins University. The daily average has climbed by more than 50% over the past two weeks, an Associated Press analysis found. The true numbers are probably much higher because of limited testing and other factors.

[ ... ]

The nation’s daily death toll has actually dropped markedly over the past few weeks even as cases climbed, a phenomenon experts said may reflect the advent of treatments, better efforts to prevent infections at nursing homes, and a rising proportion of cases among younger people, who are more likely than their elders to survive a bout with COVID-19.

“This is still serious,” said Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but “we’re in a different situation today than we were in March or April.”

Several states set single-day case records this week, including Arizona, California, Nevada, Texas and Oklahoma. Florida reported over 5,000 new cases for a second day in a row.

Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (remember them?) changed their guidance about who's mostly at risk for getting severely ill from the coronavirus. The revised guidance lists the following conditions as putting people at "increased risk of severe illness":

• Chronic kidney disease


• COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)


• Immunocompromised state (weakened immune system) from solid organ transplant


• Obesity (body mass index [BMI] of 30 or higher)


• Serious heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies


• Sickle cell disease


• Type 2 diabetes mellitus

The following conditions are listed ones that "might" put one at an increased risk:

• Asthma (moderate-to-severe)


• Cerebrovascular disease (affects blood vessels and blood supply to the brain)


• Cystic fibrosis


• Hypertension or high blood pressure


• Immunocompromised state (weakened immune system) from blood or bone marrow transplant, immune deficiencies, HIV, use of corticosteroids, or use of other immune weakening medicines


• Neurologic conditions, such as dementia


• Liver disease


• Pregnancy


• Pulmonary fibrosis (having damaged or scarred lung tissues)


• Smoking


• Thalassemia (a type of blood disorder)


• Type 1 diabetes mellitus

Worthy of note: they're no longer suggesting age as a risk factor; all these are for "People of Any Age".

The town of Acton has yet to provide an update for today; yesterday's update reported 173 cumulative cases with 2 individuals in isolation, 150 persons recovered and 21 fatalities. I'm guessing that the town is only providing updates when something changes.