Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM this afternoon, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting (via their new dashboard format) one hundred seventy eight more deaths from COVID-19 (for a total of 2,360 to date), 3,079 new cases (for a total of 46,023) and 14,614 more tests performed (for a total of 195,076).

The bad news is that the number of new cases is far higher than any previous day's total. The good news (such as it is) is that the number of tests is far higher than any previous day's total. The state's hospital system also is far from overwhelmed, with roughly half the state's 18,000 hospital beds available for patients.

There's strong evidence that the official statistics are greatly undercounting the number of deaths from the coronavirus:

The number of people killed by coronavirus in Massachusetts in the early days of the pandemic is likely much higher than reflected by the official death toll, according to a Globe analysis of preliminary state death records from March.

Total deaths in Massachusetts soared by 11 percent last month over the March average for the last 20 years, a statistically significant increase that far exceeded the expected swings from year to year.

The March spike in deaths eclipsed the number of fatalities attributed to the coronavirus in official counts, and also suggests that fatalities began to climb before the full extent of the outbreak was clear. While the number of total deaths increased, the state saw a steep drop in fatal accidents and suicides.

The phenomenon points to a likely undercount of deaths linked to the disease, according to public health experts.

"We are absolutely undercounting COVID-19 deaths, there is not a doubt in my mind about that," said Dr. Michael Mina, an assistant professor of epidemiology at Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health. "And if we undercount deaths, we deflate fatality rates."

An accurate accounting of the dead is critical because it helps public health experts understand the disease and can shape public policy and the allocation of resources.

Increasing evidence from across the globe suggests that the pandemic may be claiming far more lives than the fatality figures published each day by states and countries the world over show. Here in Massachusetts, the overall data from the Department of Public Health was particularly stark, although officials warned that the figures were subject to change and should be viewed with caution.

Since 1999, an average of 5,049 people have died each March in Massachusetts. But this year, March deaths swelled to 5,578. It was the largest number of March deaths in at least 20 years, topping the previous high of 5,405 in the brutal winter of 2015.

The surge of 529 deaths above average far surpassed the 89 fatalities officially attributed to the virus through the end of March.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. Yesterday's update raised the total number of cases in town to 51, and reported that the Board of Health was going to "issue an advisory to eliminate unnecessary visitation at senior housing facilities". As far as I can tell, that order has not yet been posted to the town website.

Comments

[jhetley]

Meanwhile, Fearless Leader and his minions claim that deaths are over-reported.

In a comparison of scale, Maine has 44 deaths so far. The last five reported were at a veteran's home . . .

[edschweppe]

Just one soldier's home (Holyoke) here in Massachusetts is already up to 57 dead from COVID-19. Over 55% of all known Massachusetts COVID-19 deaths to date are at nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. (And, as noted above, that total is almost certainly an undercount.)

[jhetley]

About half of Maine deaths are in long-term care.