Nov. 13th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 23 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 more than yesterday - up 9.5%) for a total of 10,038 and 2,674 newly reported confirmed cases (192 more than yesterday - up 7.7%) for a total of 177,627. The seven day average positivity rate is 3.12%, compared to 3.02% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 5.20%, compared to 5.07% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 27,431 (1,230 more than yesterday - up 4.7%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 227 and 232 newly reported probable cases (66 more than yesterday - up 39.8%) for a total of 5,468. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 23 new deaths for a total of 10,265 and 2,906 new cases for a total of 183,095. There were 687 COVID-19 patients in hospital (26 more than yesterday - up 3.9%), 153 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 more than yesterday - up 1.3%) and 71 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 4.4%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,570, 900% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.1%, 303% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 617, 298% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 20, 81% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9.

Well, fuck.

Cases, deaths and positivity all up from yesterday. Newly reported cases now at the highest level since April 24, the worst day of the pandemic, when the state reported 4,946 new cases. The day before, April 23, the state reported 3,079. Those are the only two days in the entire pandemic to date with higher newly reported case counts than today's 2,674.

That being said, the hospitalization and death counts aren't anywhere nearly as bad as those of late April. But the trends still suck; that seven-day case average is hugely impacted by the (relatively) low numbers posted on Monday, when "only" 1,184 new cases were reported.

Governor Baker announced that the DCU Center in Worcester will once again host a field hospital, as case counts continue to climb:
Read more... )
On present trends, I fully expect more to be needed. The question will be whether there's enough staff available, given that every other state in the Union (with the possible exceptions of Hawaii and Vermont) are in far worse shape than we are.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts has dramatically reduced the number of so-called "COVID-19 lower risk states", from which people can travel to Massachusetts without needing to self-quarantine; now that list is down to just Hawaii, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. (Massachusetts itself does not qualify for that list, as we've been well above the 10 average new daily case per 100k population mark for weeks, now.)

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 10PM on November 10, the town of Acton reported 256 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 23 individuals in isolation, 212 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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