Oct. 18th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 14 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than yesterday - down 33.3%) for a total of 9,517 deaths, 744 newly reported confirmed cases (194 more than yesterday - up 35.3%) for a total of 140,647 cases, and 15,588 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,193 more than yesterday - up 25.8%) for a total of 2,514,633 individuals tested. There were 80,146 new molecular tests reported (4,312 more than yesterday - up 5.7%) with a total of 5,168,943 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 4.8%, compared to 4.4% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 220 deaths, and zero newly reported probable cases (34 less than yesterday) for a total of 3,013 cases. The state also reported 186 patients tested by antibody tests (111 more than yesterday - up 148.0%) for a total of 124,154 patients, and 212 patients tested by antigen tests (1,529 less than yesterday - down 87.8%) for a total of 162,157 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 14 new deaths for a total of 9,737 and 744 new cases for a total of 143,660.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 639.9 compared to 532.6 last week (up 20.1%) and 573.4 two weeks ago (up 11.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 18.4 compared to 13.3 last week (up 38.7%) and 14.9 two weeks ago (up 24.0%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 14,754.9 compared to 14,963.3 last week (down 1.4%) and 16,283.0 two weeks ago (down 9.4%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 4.3% compared to 3.6% last week and 3.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.2%, 51% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 499, 65% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 18, 93% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

The day-to-day news is rather mixed: deaths are down, which is always good to see, but new confirmed cases are way up, which isn't. The seven-day averages, on the other hand, are all consistently trending in the wrong direction; cases and deaths and percent-positive all up, newly tested individuals down. The state's key metrics are trending a little bit better, compared to yesterday, but are still way, way above their values in late August and early September, with the number of hospitals using surge capacity the only relatively bright spot.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 9:15PM on October 14, the town of Acton reported 217 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 191 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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