Oct. 12th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 13 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 less than yesterday - down 18.8%) for a total of 9,401 deaths, 765 newly reported confirmed cases (195 more than yesterday - up 34.2%) for a total of 136,933 cases, and 18,801 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,004 more than yesterday - up 19.0%) for a total of 2,430,150 individuals tested. There were 67,395 new molecular tests reported (9,851 less than yesterday - down 12.8%) with a total of 4,815,399 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 4.1%, compared to 3.6% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 216 deaths, and zero newly reported probable cases (same as yesterday) for a total of 2,730 cases. The state also reported 139 patients tested by antibody tests (49 less than yesterday - down 26.1%) for a total of 122,982 patients, and 361 patients tested by antigen tests (414 less than yesterday - down 53.4%) for a total of 150,702 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 13 new deaths for a total of 9,617 and 765 new cases for a total of 139,663.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 575.4 compared to 587.4 last week (down 2.0%) and 438.6 two weeks ago (up 31.2%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 12.3 compared to 16.1 last week (down 23.9%) and 13.6 two weeks ago (down 9.5%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,039.9 compared to 16,028.1 last week (up 0.1%) and 15,661.6 two weeks ago (up 2.4%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 3.6% compared to 3.7% last week and 2.7% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 38% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 514, 70% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 13, 39% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Deaths down day-to-day, so yay. But confirmed cases up on a Monday? That's not good, considering the normal weekend reporting slump, and it's even less good when proportionaly fewer newly tested individuals are being reported. The seven-day averages are slightly better today than a week ago, but still worse than two weeks ago, we still have way more people hospitalized than the lowest observed value, and the three-day average number of deaths is climbing again.

The Boston Globe ran an editorial this morning wondering just why Governor Baker is reluctant to provide critical COVID-19 data:
Read more... )
The media, specifically including the Globe, could certainly be doing a better job of digging into the daily and weekly numbers and reporting trends; hey, if I can compare the number of newly reported cases on a day-to-day basis, certainly a big newspaper can? Right? But the state does need to provide more granularity on things like which workplaces (or at least which industries) are affected, both so folks can make their own personal risk assessments and to provide a factual basis for decisions on what businesses and/or communities need to open or close.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 9:15AM on October 7, the town of Acton reported 212 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 3 individuals in isolation, 188 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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