Sep. 5th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 15 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than yesterday - down 31.8%) for a total of 8,907 deaths, 416 newly reported confirmed cases (197 more than yesterday - up 90.0%) for a total of 120,454 cases, and 20,789 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,230 more than yesterday - up 18.4%) for a total of 1,839,933 individuals tested, with a total of 2,660,462 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.0%, compared to 1.2% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 209 deaths, and 22 newly reported probable cases (22 more than yesterday) for a total of 1,742 cases. The state also reported 358 patients tested by antibody tests (189 more than yesterday - up 111.8%) for a total of 114,635 and 1,497 patients tested by antigen tests (1,148 more than yesterday - up 328.9%) for a total of 92,567. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 16 new deaths for a total of 9,116 and 438 new cases for a total of 122,196.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 306.4 compared to 409.8 last week (down 25.2%) and 250.7 two weeks ago (up 22.2%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 14.9 compared to 18.8 last week (down 21.1%) and 13.4 two weeks ago (up 10.6%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 20,357.0 compared to 25,545.2 last week (down 20.3%) and 16,923.4 two weeks ago (up 20.3%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 1.5% compared to 1.6% last week and 1.5% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 0.8%, 0% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 4. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 323, 7% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on August 29. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 14, 31% above the lowest observed value of 11 on August 4.

Day-to-day deaths down, so yay. But cases way up, tests up but not nearly as much, and a big leap in the percent-positive ratio. The seven-day averages for cases and deaths are good compared to last week but not compared to two weeks ago, while the test averages are just the opposite. (More tests are better, in my opinion even if not in the opinion of Donald Trump.) I'll have to look deeper into the data to figure out how the state can claim a percent-positive ratio of 0.8% over the last week when my (admittedly simplistic) calculation is nearly twice that.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 3PM on August 31, the town of Acton reported 198 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 4 individuals in isolation, 173 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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