Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today (Thursday, June 22, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 5 newly reported confirmed deaths (3 less than last week - down 37.5%) for a total of 22,667 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (same as last week) for a total of 2,038 probable deaths. In total, 7 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (3 less than last week - down 30.0%) for a total of 24,705 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 693 newly reported confirmed cases (116 less than last week - down 14.3%) for a total of 2,043,337 confirmed cases. There were 297 newly reported probable cases (30 more than last week - up 11.2%) for a total of 205,138 probable cases. In total, 990 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (86 less than last week - down 8.0%) for a total of 2,248,475 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 19,033 new molecular tests (1,426 less than last week - down 7.0%) for a total of 50,209,972. The seven-day average positivity rate is 4.06%, compared to 4.13% last week. There are currently 160 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (same as last week), 12 COVID patients are in ICUs (4 less than last week - down 25.0%), and 5 COVID patients are intubated (3 less than last week - down 37.5%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 81.9 (8.9 less than last week - down 9.8%), 27.6% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,246.6 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 4.06% (0.08 less than last week - down 1.9%), 1,218.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 85.3% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 163.6 (6.7 less than last week - down 3.9%), 94.1% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.8% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 0.4 (0.4 less than last week - down 50.0%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.4 on 6/18/2023 and 99.8% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,310.1 (163.9 less than last week - down 6.6%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 2,310.1 on 6/20/2023 and 97.9% below the highest observed value of 110,431.6 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,578 non-ICU beds, of which 7,773 (90.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 148 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 657 (7.7%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,202 ICU beds, of which 935 (77.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 12 (1.0%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 255 (21.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,499 non-ICU beds, of which 7,624 (89.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 144 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 731 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,165 ICU beds, of which 935 (80.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 16 (1.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 214 (18.4%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (June 22), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,310.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 81.9, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.4, the 7 day hospitalization average was 163.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.06%.
One week ago (June 15), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,474.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 170.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.13%.
Two weeks ago (June 8), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,567.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 93.3, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.7, the 7 day hospitalization average was 170.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 4.15%.
One year ago (June 22, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 20,073.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 983.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 9.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 468.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.52%.
Two years ago (June 22, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 21,666.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 55.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 2.7, the 7 day hospitalization average was 110.2, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.34%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 10.39; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 851.0 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 9.38; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 767.7 cases per day.

(Note: the raw data file for 6/22/2022 had a blank for the applicable seven-day molecular test average; the number noted above was calculated by copying the appropriate formula into the Excel spreadsheet.)

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Thursday, June 15, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 131.6 copies per milliliter (72.8 less than one week prior - down 35.6%), 978.3% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 98.5% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 170.9 copies/mL two weeks ago, 653.1 copies/mL one year ago, and 22.5 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 162.7 copies per milliliter (49.2 less than one week prior - down 23.2%), 1,500.1% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.6% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 177.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 763.9 copies/mL one year ago, and 21.9 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.


Confirmed deaths are down from last week, as are all four of the seven-day averages. In fact, the seven-day deaths average (0.4 deaths per day) is the lowest it's ever been reported. Hospitalizations held steady. Cases continued to drop, but with testing continuing to crater, that's neither surprising nor encouraging.

The wastewater levels at the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority Deer Island plant are a bit encouraging, though, as both the north-side and south-side levels are down compared to last week. They're still far above their levels two years ago, let alone their record-low levels. Oh, for those wonderful days of June 2021, when there was still plentiful testing, the delta variant was just beginning to rear its ugly head, and the omicron variants had yet to appear ...