edschweppe | Local COVID-19 updates

As of 5PM today (Thursday, June 1, 2023), the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 9 newly reported confirmed deaths (4 less than last week - down 30.8%) for a total of 22,645 confirmed deaths. There were 2 newly reported probable deaths (same as last week) for a total of 2,032 probable deaths. In total, 11 confirmed and probable new deaths were reported this week (4 less than last week - down 26.7%) for a total of 24,677 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The state is also reporting 803 newly reported confirmed cases (12 more than last week - up 1.5%) for a total of 2,041,048 confirmed cases. There were 325 newly reported probable cases (123 more than last week - up 60.9%) for a total of 204,213 probable cases. In total, 1,128 confirmed and probable new cases were reported this week (135 more than last week - up 13.6%) for a total of 2,245,261 cases since the beginning of the pandemic. There were 20,840 new molecular tests (4,863 less than last week - down 18.9%) for a total of 50,149,663. The seven-day average positivity rate is 3.82%, compared to 3.46% last week. There are currently 159 COVID patients in Massachusetts hospitals (2 less than last week - down 1.2%), 14 COVID patients are in ICUs (1 less than last week - down 6.7%), and 5 COVID patients are intubated (1 less than last week - down 16.7%).

Of the overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics", the 7-day average number of newly confirmed cases is 87.0 (6.1 less than last week - down 6.6%), 35.6% above the lowest observed value of 64.1 on 6/25/2021 and 99.6% below the highest observed value of 23,246.9 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.82% (0.36 more than last week - up 10.4%), 1,142.2% above the lowest observed value of 0.31% on 6/25/2021 and 86.2% below the highest observed value of 27.67% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID patients in hospital is 159.3 (5.3 more than last week - up 3.4%), 89.0% above the lowest observed value of 84.3 on 7/8/2021 and 95.9% below the highest observed value of 3,874.1 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID deaths is 0.9 (0.1 less than last week - down 14.3%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 0.9 on 5/11/2023 and 99.5% below the highest observed value of 175.9 on 4/24/2020. The 7-day average number of molecular tests is 2,619.4 (453.7 less than last week - down 14.8%), 0.0% above the lowest observed value of 2,619.4 on 5/30/2023 and 97.6% below the highest observed value of 110,431.7 on 1/8/2022.

(Note that the seven-day averages for cases, percent-positive, hospitalizations and deaths are displayed in the "Overview Trends" section of the state dashboard. The seven-day average for number of molecular tests is not directly shown anywhere on the dashboard, but is included in the raw data. I am including it because low test totals can cause low reported case counts even with significant virus circulating statewide.)

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,567 non-ICU beds, of which 7,683 (89.7%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 145 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 739 (8.6%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,169 ICU beds, of which 893 (76.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 14 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 262 (22.4%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported last week 8,701 non-ICU beds, of which 8,043 (92.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 146 (1.7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 512 (5.9%) remained available. Hospitals also reported last week 1,205 ICU beds, of which 969 (80.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 15 (1.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 221 (18.3%) remained available.

Summarizing the state results, and comparing to earlier dates:
Today (June 1), the 7 day molecular test average was 2,619.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 87.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.9, the 7 day hospitalization average was 159.3, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.82%.
One week ago (May 25), the 7 day molecular test average was 3,073.1, the 7 day confirmed case average was 93.1, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 1.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 154.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.46%.
Two weeks ago (May 18), the 7 day molecular test average was 3,461.0, the 7 day confirmed case average was 90.4, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 0.6, the 7 day hospitalization average was 165.9, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.95%.
One year ago (June 1, 2022), the 7 day molecular test average was 22,053.4, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,527.6, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 728.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.72%.
Two years ago (June 1, 2021), the 7 day molecular test average was 26,089.6, the 7 day confirmed case average was 137.7, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 241.6, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 0.68%.

The ratio of tests per week between last year and the current date is 8.42; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 732.5 cases per day. Similarly, the ratio of tests per week between two years ago and the current date is 9.96; if we were still testing as frequently as then, we would be seeing approximately 866.5 cases per day.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts dashboard is available here.

The Commonwealth is also reporting that,as of Thursday, May 25, 2023 (the most recent sample date in the state's wastewater report), the seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the north side of the Metropolitan Water Resources Authority (MWRA) sewershed was 213.9 copies per milliliter (83.8 more than one week prior - up 64.4%), 1,652.5% above the lowest observed value of 12.2 on 6/28/2020 and 97.6% below the highest observed value of 8,749.2 on 1/5/2022. By comparison, on the north side there were 184.6 copies/mL two weeks ago, 923.6 copies/mL one year ago, and 43.1 copies/mL two years ago.
The seven-day average level of COVID-19 in the wastewater from the south side of the MWRA sewershed was 208.7 copies per milliliter (0.3 more than one week prior - up 0.2%), 1,952.1% above the lowest observed value of 10.2 on 6/28/2021 and 98.2% below the highest observed value of 11,740.1 on 1/3/2022. By comparison, on the south side there were 198.0 copies/mL two weeks ago, 876.7 copies/mL one year ago, and 59.3 copies/mL two years ago.

The raw data file for the Massachusetts wastewater report is available here.

Newly confirmed deaths are down, and current hospitalizations are down slightly. However, newly confirmed cases are up even as tests continue to plummet to levels not seen since March 20, 2020, thus driving another increase in percent-positivity. MRWA wastewater levels are also up - a big jump on the northside, a small one on the southside - with both being over two hundred copies/milliliter again.

I would really like to have one of these updates be purely good news. I'm not getting my desire this week.