Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 9 newly reported confirmed deaths (7 less than yesterday - down 43.8%) for a total of 19,252 deaths, 4,654 newly reported confirmed cases (922 less than yesterday - down 16.5%) for a total of 1,663,904 cases, and 59,517 newly reported molecular tests (10,766 less than yesterday - down 15.3%).The seven day average positivity rate is 8.68%, compared to 8.24% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 less than yesterday - down 50.0%) for a total of 1,141 and 824 newly reported probable cases (123 less than yesterday - down 13.0%) for a total of 145,405. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 20,393 and 5,478 new cases for a total of 1,809,309. There were 729 COVID-19 patients in hospital (1 more than yesterday - up 0.1%), 64 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (2 less than yesterday - down 3.0%) and 22 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 less than yesterday - down 18.5%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 2,975.0 (120 more than yesterday - up 4.2%), 4,548% above the lowest observed value of 64.0 on 6/25/2021 and 88.0% below the highest observed value of 23,198.0 on 1/8/2022. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 8.68% (0 more than yesterday - up 5.2%), 2,720% above the lowest observed value of 0.3% on 6/25/2021 and 69% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 687.0 (23 more than yesterday - up 3.5%), 717% above the lowest observed value of 84.0 on 7/8/2021 and 83% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 7.0 (same as yesterday), 600% above the lowest observed value of 1.0 on 7/11/2021 and 97% below the highest observed value of 176.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 8,807 non-ICU beds, of which 7,426 (84.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 665 (7.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 716 (8.1%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,257 ICU beds, of which 950 (75.6%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 64 (5.1%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 243 (19.3%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 8,917 non-ICU beds, of which 7,609 (85.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 662 (7%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 646 (7.2%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,257 ICU beds, of which 957 (76.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 66 (5.3%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 234 (18.6%) remained available.

One week ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 2,324.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 6.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 510.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 6.63%.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,960.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 5.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 414.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 5.37%.

One year ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 472.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 7.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 436.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.15% (or 1.98% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

As of May 12, 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that, of 3219 counties nationwide, 1437 counties (44.64% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of High, 599 counties (18.61% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Substantial, 866 counties (26.90% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Moderate, and 317 counties (9.85% of total) have a Community Transmission Level of Low. The CDC also reported that all 14 counties in Massachusetts have a Community Tranmission Level of High.

Barnstable County has 356.820 cases per 100k, 10.77 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Berkshire County has 712.320 cases per 100k, 10.07 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Bristol County has 233.890 cases per 100k, 7.27 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Dukes County has 288.480 cases per 100k, 6.71 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Essex County has 311.270 cases per 100k, 8.7 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Franklin County has 299.230 cases per 100k, 7.29 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampden County has 354.010 cases per 100k, 9.49 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Hampshire County has 514.830 cases per 100k, 4.55 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Middlesex County has 382.760 cases per 100k, 7.49 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Nantucket County has 245.640 cases per 100k, 11.76 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Norfolk County has 322.170 cases per 100k, 8.23 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Plymouth County has 231.960 cases per 100k, 7.64 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Suffolk County has 421.570 cases per 100k, 6.66 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
Worcester County has 299.410 cases per 100k, 6.8 percent positive, and a Community Transmission level of high
The underlying query for this data is available here.

As of May 12, 2022, the CDC reported COVID Community Levels for 3223 counties nationwide: 137 counties (4.25%) with High community level, 456 counties (14.15%) with Medium community level, and 2630 counties (81.60%) with Low community level. The CDC also reported the following COVID Community Levels for the 14 counties in Massachusetts: 11 counties with High community level (Barnstable, Berkshire, Dukes, Essex, Franklin, Middlesex, Nantucket, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk, Worcester), and 3 counties with Medium community level (Bristol, Hampden, Hampshire).

Barnstable County (population 212990) has 356.82 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Berkshire County (population 124944) has 712.32 cases per 100k, 14.2 hospitalizations per 100k and 7.0 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Bristol County (population 565217) has 233.89 cases per 100k, 9.1 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.2 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Dukes County (population 17332) has 288.48 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Essex County (population 789034) has 311.27 cases per 100k, 10.7 hospitalizations per 100k and 4.5 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Franklin County (population 70180) has 299.23 cases per 100k, 13.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Hampden County (population 466372) has 354.01 cases per 100k, 7.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Hampshire County (population 160830) has 514.83 cases per 100k, 7.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 5.1 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of Medium.
Middlesex County (population 1611699) has 382.76 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Nantucket County (population 11399) has 245.64 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Norfolk County (population 706775) has 322.17 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Plymouth County (population 521202) has 231.96 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Suffolk County (population 803907) has 421.57 cases per 100k, 12.0 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.4 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
Worcester County (population 830622) has 299.41 cases per 100k, 13.3 hospitalizations per 100k and 3.9 COVID bed utilization, for a community transmission level of High and a community level of High.
The underlying query for this data is available here.

The day-to-day comparisons seem good, with deaths and cases both down compared to yesterday, and hospitalizations only up slightly. However, the last few weeks appear to me to be much noisier day-over-day than they used to be, and today's 4,654 newly reported confirmed cases are way higher than last Friday's 3,836. (In fact, today's cases are the highest Friday report since 7,181 were reported on January 28.) The four seven-day averages are also all up compared to yesterday, or last week, or the week before that.

Oh, and we've got yet another new Omicron variant (BA.2.12.1) taking over in Massachusetts:

The virus that causes COVID-19 didn't change much in the early days of the pandemic. Then the number of mutations started increasing, and scientists began using an alphabet soup of letters and numbers to distinguish them.

But nothing prepared them for the dizzying array of strains that the mighty Omicron variant has been spitting out.

As one of the newest Omicron variants, BA.2.12.1, overtakes its predecessors, here's what you need to know.

[ ... ]

Will BA.2.12.1 elbow out its sibling for top spot?

Scientists tracking Omicron say that's already happening. Yet its extraordinary speed, fueling another rapid rise in cases, is puzzling researchers because its structure is not all that different from its predecessor's. "It's almost like having somebody who runs a 2:30 marathon changing their sneakers and all of a sudden running a two-hour marathon. It doesn't make sense," said Dr. Jacob Lemieux, an infectious disease specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital, who is also coleader of the viral variants program at the Massachusetts Consortium on Pathogen Readiness.

Is BA.2.12.1 better at evading immunity?

Yes, it appears it has an increased capacity to evade antibodies triggered by a previous Omicron infection and vaccination, according to recent research by Chinese scientists that has not been peer reviewed. Dr. Pedro Piedra, a professor of molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, compares these virus variants to a leopard that can change its spots to help it avoid detection.

"As these viruses go through the population once, it becomes harder to reinfect the population that already has a level of protection against that variant," he said. "What we are seeing is these rapid changes that are enough for this variant to take a foothold and cause infection."

What about the level of illness from BA.2.12.1?

While this latest subvariant doesn't appear to be causing the flood of hospitalizations that the original Omicron wave did over the winter, hospitalizations are slowly rising again as cases mount in Massachusetts.

"I and many other people had expected that as treatments become more available, as vaccinations are more widespread, we would see a decoupling of the case counts and hospitalizations and we have to a large extent," Lemieux said. "However it hasn't been a complete decoupling that was hoped for. So we will have to keep a close eye on the hospitalization count."

Are there yet more Omicron variants out there?

Yes. Meet BA.4 and BA.5, the newest offshoots identified by scientists in South Africa. The two subvariants have rapidly replaced Omicron's BA.2 line, reaching more than 50 percent of sequenced cases in South Africa from the first week of April 2022 onward, a team of researchers there recently reported in a study that has not been peer reviewed. The scientists also reported "early signs" of rising hospital admissions in some of the country's provinces. They said there are signs BA.4 and BA.5 may be even more wily about evading immunity. As far as causing more severe disease, they said the jury is still out.

Oh, joy.

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe finally noticed that Massachusetts is up to eleven counties with high COVID levels (in an article timestamped 12:05PM today):

Eleven of the 14 counties in Massachusetts now have high community levels of COVID-19 and people in those areas should wear masks in indoor public spaces, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The only counties that don't have high levels are Bristol, Hampden, and Hampshire, which have medium levels, according to the CDC's website, which rates virus levels in US counties as "a tool to help communities decide what prevention steps to take."

"This is concerning," said Dr. Sabrina Assoumou, an assistant professor of medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and an attending physician in the section of Infectious Diseases at Boston Medical Center. "There's a lot of COVID around."

"People are tired, and they feel like, 'I don't want to be masking up forever.' But think of masking as one of those tools we use temporarily so we can bring cases down to a more manageable level," she said. "Let's all mask up while cases are high right now so we can decrease the level of transmission in the community and we can all have a good summer."

[ ... ]

COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and other metrics in Massachusetts have been rising steadily after a precipitous fall from the early days of this year, when the Omicron variant drove a deadly surge. Deaths have also edged upward. Experts have been concerned about the arrival of the Omicron subvariants BA.2 and now BA.2.12.1.

Levels of the coronavirus detected in Eastern Massachusetts waste water, considered an early warning of future increases in reported cases, have continued to rise after a dip. And cases among school students and staff have been on the rise for eight consecutive reporting weeks, with more than 17,000 in the most recent weekly report.

But at the same time, most pandemic restrictions have been dropped, and many Massachusetts residents have jumped at the chance to try to get back to normal after more than two years of disruption.

As COVID-19 cases have risen (seven counties had high COVID-19 levels a week ago), Boston has urged residents to wear masks in indoor public spaces. Northampton public schools reinstated their mask mandate, while some Boston-area public school systems have recommended students return to wearing masks.

The state Executive Office of Health and Human services said Friday in a statement it was monitoring the situation. The state's vaccination rates are high, it said, and residents have ready access to vaccines, rapid tests, and therapeutics.

Jonathan Levy, who chairs the department of environmental health at Boston University's School of Public Health, said Massachusetts currently has some of the nation's worst COVID-19 case and hospitalization rates "so it is clear that cities and the state need to do more."

"If there is no political will for indoor mask mandates, governments should be aggressively trying to increase booster rates among vulnerable communities, ensuring that all residents have access to high-quality masks, and communicating clearly and frequently that the pandemic is not over and that we are in the midst of a substantial wave."

Of course the state is "monitoring the situation". That sounds so much more impressive than "sitting on our hands doing nothing". Granted, back when I was in the Navy, "looking concerned" was the Reactor Operator's proper immediate action for most ship's casualties - but only because there was nothing I could do to address something like flooding in the Torpedo Room, or even a lube-oil leak in Shaft Alley. There's quite a bit the Governor could do, and AFAICT he's doing none of it. Sigh.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 71 active and 3,240 cumulative cases as of May 12; the 71 active cases are the most the town has reported since February 5. In the most recent "newsflash style update" at 7PM on December 21, 2021, the town reported 1538 cumulative cases with 89 individuals in isolation, 1417 recovered and 32 fatalities.