Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 45 newly reported confirmed deaths (22 less than yesterday - down 32.8%) for a total of 13,889 deaths, 3,477 newly reported confirmed cases (273 less than yesterday - down 7.3%) for a total of 479,402 cases, and 78,650 newly reported molecular tests (22,677 less than yesterday - down 22.4%). The seven day average positivity rate is 4.82%, compared to 4.85% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 6.36%, compared to 6.36% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 92,035 (528 more than yesterday - up 0.6%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (2 less than yesterday) for a total of 289 and 174 newly reported probable cases (20 less than yesterday - down 10.3%) for a total of 24,286. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 45 new deaths for a total of 14,178 and 3,651 new cases for a total of 503,688. There were 1,955 COVID-19 patients in hospital (9 more than yesterday - up 0.5%), 418 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (9 more than yesterday - up 2.2%) and 285 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (1 less than yesterday - down 0.3%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,316.0 (210 more than yesterday - up 6.8%), 2,012% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 47.0% below the highest observed value of 6,236.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 4.82% (0 less than yesterday - down 0.5%), 526% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 83% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,104.0 (26 less than yesterday - down 1.2%), 1,257% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 46% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 58.0 (3 less than yesterday - down 4.9%), 427% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 67% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,162 non-ICU beds, of which 6,213 (67.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,537 (16.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,412 (15.4%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,472 ICU beds, of which 742 (50.4%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 418 (28.4%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 312 (21.2%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,233 non-ICU beds, of which 6,401 (69.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,537 (17%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,295 (14.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,472 ICU beds, of which 782 (53.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 409 (27.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 281 (19.1%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 4,934.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 63.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,326.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.26% (or 8.42% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Once again, newly reported deaths and cases are down, and once again I take that good news with a substantial grain of salt due to weekend reporting delays. If those trends hold up through, say, midweek, I'll be a lot happier. Hospitalizations (both COVID-19 in total and ICU in specific) going up is also not what I'd call good news; neither is the uptick in estimated active cases.

Also, in a sad milestone, today the state has reported over half a million COVID cases, including both the confirmed and probable ones. Specifically, we've had 479,402 confirmed cases and 24,286 probable ones, for a grand (and depressing) total of 503,688. Yay us?

Meanwhile, the state is announcing more COVID-19 vaccination sites and rearranging the priority lists for the next phase of the vaccination rollout:

Governor Charlie Baker outlined a plan Monday to add more than 60 injection sites across the state, including three new mass vaccination sites, while moving residents 65 and over forward in line for the next phase of COVID-19 shots.

The steps came as state officials acknowledged that, even while large clusters of Massachusetts residents who are currently ineligible clamor for vaccines, tens of thousands of doses are currently sitting unused on freezer shelves in hospitals and the warehouses of pharmacies serving senior care sites.

At the same time, a state public health official has warned Massachusetts cities and towns that their vaccine shipments will be “capped going forward through February” because the US government is not making enough doses available.

The blizzard of seemingly contradictory information suggested that the Baker administration, which approved a phased approach to vaccine priorities, is struggling to match anticipated supply and demand. While demand for the vaccine is lagging among some groups prioritized in phase one, notably front-line health workers, there are concerns supply constraints in the coming weeks could mean the state will be unable to accommodate a larger pool of residents seeking shots.

[ ... ]

Facing what both state and federal officials have described as uncertainty over the supply outlook for the next two months, Baker said state officials are “overbuilding” the infrastructure needed to deliver vaccine injections to people who will be eligible in phase two — slated to start next week — at mass vaccination sites, retail pharmacies, and local sites.

Massachusetts, which has been steadily adding sites, this week will have 103 available for eligible residents, state officials said. But while they’ll have the capacity to give 240,000 doses weekly, they expect to receive only 173,175 first and second doses this week. Both of the vaccines currently authorized for emergency use are based on two-dose regimens, requiring residents who are given their first shot to return for a second shot a few weeks later.

By mid-February, state officials said, the administration expects to have 165 injection sites across the state, with the capacity to administer 305,000 doses per week. Under the current schedule, though, Massachusetts officials only expect to receive 189,640 doses from the feds that week.

[ ... ]

As the state plans to transition to phase two of its vaccination plan next week, Baker said residents 75 and over will be the top priority group, starting Feb. 1. But in a change from the state’s previous plan, residents 65 and over, along with those with two chronic health conditions, known as co-morbidities, will be in the second priority group, eligible to get shots later in February. The start date will hinge on vaccine shipments from the feds and the demand for vaccine appointments.

This is actually of personal interest to me; I'm too young for the 75+ or 65+ groups, but have a bunch of comorbidities. Under the most recent guidance, it appears I won't be part of the February 1 eligibility pool, but will become eligible later that month. Depending, of course, on adequate supplies. And Charlie Baker not changing his mind yet again. At least I'm not having to rely on Donald Trump to have his act together; that would be doomed from the start.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 49 active and 655 cumulative cases as of January 24. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 1:30PM on January 25, 2021 reported 655 cumulative cases with 49 individuals in isolation, 575 persons recovered and 31 fatalities - that's 59 more cases, 71 more persons recovered, and one more fatality than the previous update on January 13.