Local COVID-19 updates

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As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 67 newly reported confirmed deaths (8 less than yesterday - down 10.7%) for a total of 13,844 deaths, 3,750 newly reported confirmed cases (580 less than yesterday - down 13.4%) for a total of 475,925 cases, and 101,327 newly reported molecular tests (11,064 less than yesterday - down 9.8%). The seven day average positivity rate is 4.85%, compared to 5.17% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 6.36%, compared to 6.69% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 91,507 (686 less than yesterday - down 0.7%). The state also reported 2 newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 289 and 194 newly reported probable cases (117 less than yesterday - down 37.6%) for a total of 24,112. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 69 new deaths for a total of 14,133 and 3,944 new cases for a total of 500,037. There were 1,946 COVID-19 patients in hospital (109 less than yesterday - down 5.3%), 409 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (9 less than yesterday - down 2.2%) and 286 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (5 less than yesterday - down 1.7%).

Of the four overview trends (formerly the Page 2 "key metrics"), the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 3,106.0 (156 more than yesterday - up 5.3%), 1,878% above the lowest observed value of 157.0 on 7/4/2020 and 51.0% below the highest observed value of 6,235.0 on 1/8/2021. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 4.85% (0 less than yesterday - down 6.3%), 529% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on 9/21/2020 and 82% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on 4/15/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 2,130.0 (32 less than yesterday - down 1.5%), 1,274% above the lowest observed value of 155.0 on 8/26/2020 and 46% below the highest observed value of 3,874.0 on 4/27/2020. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 61.0 (same as yesterday), 454% above the lowest observed value of 11.0 on 9/9/2020 and 66% below the highest observed value of 175.0 on 4/24/2020.

Statewide, hospitals reported 9,233 non-ICU beds, of which 6,401 (69.3%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,537 (16.6%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,295 (14.0%) remained available. Hospitals also reported 1,472 ICU beds, of which 782 (53.1%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 409 (27.8%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 281 (19.1%) remained available. By comparison, hospitals reported yesterday a total of 9,252 non-ICU beds, of which 6,457 (69.8%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 1,637 (18%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 1,158 (12.5%) remained available. Hospitals also reported yesterday a total of 1,480 ICU beds, of which 792 (53.5%) were occupied by non-COVID patients, 418 (28.2%) were occupied by COVID patients, and 270 (18.2%) remained available.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 4,755.0, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 66.0, the 7 day hospitalization average was 2,336.0, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 7.21% (or 8.36% excluding higher education).

The daily raw data file used to create this report is available here.

Definitely good news on a day-to-day basis, as deaths and cases are both down, and percent-positive is below five percent for the first time in seemingly forever, but actually since December 2, 2020, when the seven-day average was 4.94%. The estimated active cases are down, as are all the hospitalization counts - in fact, we're below two thousand COVID-19 patients in hospital for the first time since December 21, when 1,991 patients were reported.

Of course, today is Sunday, which means the data may be impacted by weekend reporting delays. If we keep seeing downward trends come the middle of the week, it might actually be time to think we're past the worst of the state's second surge.

Meanwhile, the Globe provided an interesting peek into the two temporary field hospitals set up for COVID patients in Worcester and Lowell:

Kenneth R. Smith has visited the convention center in downtown Worcester many times over the years for trade shows and exhibitions. This month, he was there as a patient during a pandemic.

Smith was among dozens of COVID-19 patients being treated at a field hospital constructed inside the large hall of the DCU Center. Patients lie in beds in long rows across the convention center floor, separated by black curtains. There are no walls and no windows to offer a view of the outside world, just bright overhead lights and the thrum of a busy hospital.

It may be austere, but the facility functions much like a COVID unit in a traditional hospital. Patients receive medications like remdesivir to combat the virus and oxygen to help them breathe. Doctors and nurses keep constant watch. This facility, which is run by UMass Memorial Health Care and was assembled in about two weeks, has treated more than 450 patients since opening Dec. 6, providing a crucial relief valve for a health care system under extraordinary strain.

"You're not here to get pampered; you're here to get better and get home and survive," said Smith, 67, who spent more than a week at the DCU Center. "It's not pretty, but it gets the job done."

This field hospital, and a second military-style medical site that opened in Lowell this month, together add nearly 300 beds to the state's health care system and have been essential components of the plan for managing hospital capacity during the second surge of COVID.

They are stark reminders of the severity of a pandemic that has sickened and killed thousands of people in Massachusetts alone, and is far from over. Yet despite the grim circumstances, there are, perhaps surprisingly, some advantages for patients who end up there.

They can do something forbidden in traditional hospitals during the pandemic: walk around and socialize. In traditional hospitals, patients are confined to their rooms because of the risk of spreading infection. But because all the patients at the DCU Center already have COVID, and all the health care workers wear full personal protective equipment at all times, it's safe for patients to leave their beds and interact.

They can walk a few laps for exercise, and relax in the lounge, a corner of the convention floor where armchairs are arranged around a big television screen. (A crime show was playing one recent afternoon). They can stop at a snack station for cookies and coffee. They can chat with other patients. Those who feel well enough can ride stationary bikes.

Doctors say the ability to move and socialize helps with patients' mental and physical recovery.

"We try to provide a little slice of normalcy for patients and give them the opportunity to walk around, talk to people," said Dr. John Broach, medical director of the Worcester field hospital. "One of the things we're concerned about is [that] being ill, especially with a highly infectious disease like COVID, can be such an isolating experience."

[ ... ]

The greatest challenge in building the field hospitals was not logistics and equipment but the availability of health care workers, who are in high demand and short supply. A shortage of staff delayed the opening of the Lowell field hospital by a week. Both facilities rely on travel nurses working temporary assignments.

Caitlin Lynch, 33, usually works as an urgent-care nurse on Cape Cod, but when she heard about the Worcester field hospital last spring, she quickly signed up to work there, and returned when the site reopened. She wanted to help with the COVID crisis and liked the idea of being part of history: How many nurses can say they have experience working in a field hospital?

There are "lots of bays, lots of hardware to step over, piping exposed," Lynch said. "Apart from the differences in aesthetics, it really is like being in a hospital, except much bigger and much more open."

The surprising thing, to me, was the bit about how patients in the field hospitals can wander around and socialize (when they feel up to it, that is); however, given that each facility is considered a single COVID-19 hot zone, and all the patients are there for COVID-19, it makes a reasonable amount of sense.

The town of Acton's current Google Data Studio dashboard is showing 47 active and 652 cumulative cases as of January 22, and apparently has not been updated since. The most recent "newsflash style update" at 10:30PM on January 13, 2021 reported 596 cumulative cases with 62 individuals in isolation, 504 persons recovered and 30 fatalities.