Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 24 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 more than yesterday - up 26.3%) for a total of 10,281 and 2,721 newly reported confirmed cases (270 less than yesterday - down 9.0%) for a total of 200,050. The seven day average positivity rate is 3.02%, compared to 3.21% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 4.84%, compared to 5.13% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 39,073 (1,745 more than yesterday - up 4.7%). The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 231 and zero newly reported probable cases (215 less than yesterday) for a total of 6,800. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 24 new deaths for a total of 10,512 and 2,721 new cases for a total of 206,850. There were 893 COVID-19 patients in hospital (2 more than yesterday - up 0.2%), 192 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (5 more than yesterday - up 2.7%) and 88 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 3.5%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,858 (143 more than yesterday - up 8.3%), 1,083% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 26% below the highest observed value of 2,502 on November 17. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.0% (0 less than yesterday - down 5.9%), 290% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 89% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 872 (22 more than yesterday - up 2.6%), 462% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 78% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 24 (same as yesterday), 118% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9. and 87% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,282, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 18, the 7 day hospitalization average was 500, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 2.3% (or 3.92% excluding higher education).

A mixed bag day-to-day; deaths and hospitalizations all up, cases and positivity both down. We're still seeing the estimated active cases number rising, meaning we're having healthy people get infected faster than infected people are getting healthy, and that's no good. Plus, we've been above two thousand new cases almost every day for the past two weeks, and that's no good either.

Noteworthy: the state has now passed two hundred thousand confirmed cases.

On the other hand, the front page story of today's Boston Globe is about the "rare sight on the horizon - hope" that the end of the pandemic may actually be in view:

While the coronavirus continued to rip through the country and daily counts of new infections rose to record heights, the seemingly impossible occurred: good news.

Promising trials from Pfizer and Moderna suggest that highly effective COVID-19 vaccines could be available in a matter of weeks, bringing the end of the pandemic in view for the first time since March.

But the end of the pandemic does not necessarily mean the eradication of COVID-19, epidemiologists said. The closing act of this public health calamity is likely to be a gradual return to a new normal, with infections, restrictions, and public health fears falling away one by one rather than all at once. Getting there will not be as simple as getting a shot, but with effective vaccines, robust distribution plans, widespread testing, and continued social distancing through the winter — all possible but hardly assured — our exit from the pandemic could come much sooner than many dared hope.

"The virus is not likely to go away, maybe ever, but certainly not for a long time," said Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health. "But that said, we're not going to be living like this forever, and in fact, I expect by springtime that things will start really getting much, much better. And then it'll continue to get better. And at some point, we will no longer feel like we're living in the middle of a pandemic."

The wave of optimism surrounding the pandemic's end seems in some ways oddly timed, as it coincides with the worst wave of infections the United States has seen thus far. In the past week, the country recorded over 1 million new cases.

[ ... ]

Instead of being eradicated, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could continue to cycle through the world's population at intervals, like influenza viruses and other coronaviruses, Bhedalia explained. In that case, the pandemic will end when enough people are vaccinated that population level herd immunity thwarts COVID-19′s ability to spread easily.

But significant and positive changes to daily life could come well before that endpoint, said Jha, the Brown University dean.

"Once you have 20 to 30 percent of people vaccinated . . . it'll really start slowing down. We will not be seeing these massive outbreaks they way we're seeing now." Jha said. "Once you get to 40 or 50 percent vaccination, it's going to feel totally different."

[ ... ]

Ordinary people also have a part to play in speeding along the pandemic's end, experts said. They encouraged both caution and optimism: Hunker down now with the knowledge that safe gatherings may be only a few months away.

"We want to step up the social distancing, mask-wearing, and testing precautions that we take because the end is in sight," McLaren said. "If we can prevent infections over the next few months, those will be clearly lives saved."

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 5PM on November 21, the town of Acton reported 291 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 33 individuals in isolation, 237 recovered and 21 fatalities.