Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 27 newly reported confirmed deaths (20 less than yesterday - down 42.6%) for a total of 10,204 and 2,532 newly reported confirmed cases (212 less than yesterday - down 7.7%) for a total of 192,050. The seven day average positivity rate is 3.17%, compared to 3.31% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 5.24%, compared to 5.37% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 34,664 (1,005 more than yesterday - up 3.0%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 more than yesterday) for a total of 231 and 150 newly reported probable cases (10 less than yesterday - down 6.2%) for a total of 6,500. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 28 new deaths for a total of 10,435 and 2,682 new cases for a total of 198,550. There were 917 COVID-19 patients in hospital (32 more than yesterday - up 3.6%), 181 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (8 more than yesterday - up 4.6%) and 75 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (3 more than yesterday - up 4.2%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,758 (20 less than yesterday - down 1.1%), 1,019% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 27% below the highest observed value of 2,388 on November 15. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.2% (0 less than yesterday - down 4.3%), 310% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 89% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 792 (36 more than yesterday - up 4.8%), 410% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 80% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 25 (1 more than yesterday - up 4.2%), 127% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9. and 86% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 918, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 17, the 7 day hospitalization average was 456, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 1.9% (or 3.47% excluding higher education).

Today being Thursday, the state also released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 263 cases, with a two week case count of 35 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 10.5 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. Acton is also listed as having 15,894 total tests, with 1,857 total tests and 37 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 1.99% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 189,518 cases, with a two week case count of 28,660 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 29.4 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. The state is also listed as having 7,484,835 total tests, with 1,088,489 total tests and 32,865 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 3.05% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.

Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 115 are coded gray, 34 are coded green, and 140 are coded yellow. The remaining 62 cities/towns are coded red ("high risk"): Abington, Acushnet, Attleboro, Barnstable, Blackstone, Brockton, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Dartmouth, Dighton, Douglas, Dracut, Edgartown, Everett, Fairhaven, Fall River, Fitchburg, Framingham, Freetown, Hampden, Holyoke, Lancaster, Lawrence, Leominster, Lowell, Ludlow, Lunenburg, Lynn, Malden, Marion, Methuen, Milford, Nantucket, New Bedford, Norfolk, Northbridge, Peabody, Rehoboth, Revere, Rockland, Salisbury, Saugus, Seekonk, Shirley, Somerset, Southbridge, Southwick, Springfield, Sterling, Sutton, Swansea, Taunton, Templeton, Tisbury, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Uxbridge, West Springfield, Westport, Winchendon, and Woburn. (Using the old definitions (based purely on case counts), 80 cities/towns would be coded gray, zero would be coded green, 18 would be coded yellow while the remaining 253 would be coded red.)

Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 3 are coded gray (Berlin, Boxborough, and Harvard), 2 are coded green (Bolton and Sudbury), 5 are coded yellow (Acton, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow), and none are coded red. Under the original risk codes, of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, none would be coded gray or green, 2 would be coded yellow (Harvard and Sudbury), and 8 would be coded red (Acton, Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Hudson, Marlborough, Maynard, and Stow).


FUUUUCK.

The day-to-day changes aren't that bad - deaths, cases and positivity are all down compared to yesterday. But all those levels are still waaay too high, and all the hospitalization numbers went up.

And the weekly report is just plain horrible. Even after magically changing the risk color code definitions a couple of weeks ago, the number of cities and towns climbing into the red is scary - from thirty last week to sixty-two this week. My own town of Acton moved up to yellow for the first time, with a daily incidence rate greater than 10.0 cases/100k but a positivity rate less than 5%.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today, but did post one last night. As of the most recent report at 9:15PM on November 18, the town of Acton reported 275 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 23 individuals in isolation, 231 recovered and 21 fatalities; that's nineteen more cases, the same number of individuals in isolation, and nineteen more persons recovered compared to the previous report on November 10. That case rate is climbing, which is bad; on the other hand, at least so far the recovery rate is keeping pace.