Local COVID-19 updates
Oct. 25th, 2020 04:19 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
edschweppeAs of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 24 newly reported confirmed deaths (16 more than yesterday - up 200.0%) for a total of 9,640 deaths, 1,097 newly reported confirmed cases (31 less than yesterday - down 2.7%) for a total of 147,120 cases, and 17,020 new patients tested by molecular tests (2,148 less than yesterday - down 11.2%) for a total of 2,632,162 individuals tested. There were 82,846 new molecular tests reported (12,825 more than yesterday - up 18.3%) with a total of 5,668,015 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 6.4%, compared to 5.9% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 224 deaths, and zero newly reported probable cases (75 less than yesterday) for a total of 3,445 cases. The state also reported 190 patients tested by antibody tests (50 less than yesterday - down 20.8%) for a total of 125,829 patients, and 396 patients tested by antigen tests (1,569 less than yesterday - down 79.8%) for a total of 174,264 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 25 new deaths for a total of 9,864 and 1,097 new cases for a total of 150,565.
The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 924.7 compared to 639.9 last week (up 44.5%) and 532.6 two weeks ago (up 73.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 17.6 compared to 18.4 last week (down 4.7%) and 13.3 two weeks ago (up 32.3%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,789.9 compared to 14,754.9 last week (up 13.8%) and 14,963.3 two weeks ago (up 12.2%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 5.5% compared to 4.3% last week and 3.6% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.5%, 89% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 553, 83% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on October 18. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 17, 86% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.
The "good" news, such as it is, is that day-to-day case counts are down a bit and total tests are up somewhat. Deaths are way up, though, and newly tested individuals are down. Worse - much worse - are the seven-day averages, particularly for new cases and percent of people testing positive, as well as just the simple fact that we're above a thousand new cases per day for two days in a row, and over seven hundred new cases per day for four days running. The only good news in the state's "key metrics" is that the number of hospitals using surge capacity is back down to one; everything else is way, way above the lowest observed values.
Still no reaction that I've heard of from the Governor, but experts contacted by the Boston Globe are worried:
I, too, would really, really like to know what Governor Baker's plan is.
The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 6:25PM on October 21, the town of Acton reported 224 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 8 individuals in isolation, 194 recovered and 21 fatalities.
The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 924.7 compared to 639.9 last week (up 44.5%) and 532.6 two weeks ago (up 73.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 17.6 compared to 18.4 last week (down 4.7%) and 13.3 two weeks ago (up 32.3%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,789.9 compared to 14,754.9 last week (up 13.8%) and 14,963.3 two weeks ago (up 12.2%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 5.5% compared to 4.3% last week and 3.6% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.5%, 89% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 553, 83% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 1, 1 above the lowest observed value of 0 on October 18. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 17, 86% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.
The "good" news, such as it is, is that day-to-day case counts are down a bit and total tests are up somewhat. Deaths are way up, though, and newly tested individuals are down. Worse - much worse - are the seven-day averages, particularly for new cases and percent of people testing positive, as well as just the simple fact that we're above a thousand new cases per day for two days in a row, and over seven hundred new cases per day for four days running. The only good news in the state's "key metrics" is that the number of hospitals using surge capacity is back down to one; everything else is way, way above the lowest observed values.
Still no reaction that I've heard of from the Governor, but experts contacted by the Boston Globe are worried:
As Massachusetts reported more than 1,000 new cases of coronavirus Saturday, calls came for Governor Charlie Baker to release specific plans for how the state will address the pandemic as numbers are expected to continue climbing into the fall and winter.
Baker has said he expected more cases to emerge in the fall — but that the state has "done the work."
Officials have "prepared to respond to this virus like never before," Baker told reporters earlier this month. "What we need from you is continued vigilance as we head into the ninth month of fighting this virus."
The 1,128 new cases reported Saturday represented the highest one-day hike since late May and along with the growing number were demands the state start laying out what officials plan to do as the weather grows colder and people gather indoors more frequently.
Dr. Robert Horsburgh, a professor of epidemiology at Boston University, expressed frustration Saturday that the state hasn't rolled out specific plans, even as the governor anticipates more cases.
"He hasn't told us what his plan was. He's confident that they can handle it, great. But what's the plan?" Horsburgh said.
The latest number of new cases "means more people are catching it, and we should be thinking about how to stop it, otherwise we'll end up looking like Wisconsin," Horsburgh said.
Dr. Sam Scarpino, a Northeastern University epidemiologist, said scientists have some evidence that the coronavirus could spread more easily in colder, drier weather.
"It could be that we're going to have to make modifications as we go into the winter," Scarpino said of the state's ongoing reopening effort. "And far as I can tell, we don't have a clear plan for that being communicated from the state around what the triggers would be [and] what they would target first."
[ ... ]
In separate phone interviews, both Horsburgh and Scarpino criticized the state for not releasing further details about COVID-19 infections — data both experts said is critical to stopping the spread of the virus.
Apart from the latest state data, Scarpino pointed to other signs of the virus's spread, including a program that is detecting increasing traces of the virus in wastewater at the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority plant at Deer Island. The pilot program is considered an early warning system for future surges of COVID-19.
"That's through the roof in the last few days," Scarpino said of the wastewater data. "What I see is a consistent picture being painted... all pointing in a very worrying direction."
The state has continued to relax measures as part of the economic reopening, and "it's entirely possible" those steps are causing part of the increase, Scarpino said. "The state's not providing the data that we need to make more informed decisions."
Horsburgh, who called the latest case figure "obviously a bad number," said most people in Massachusetts appear to be following public health rules — like wearing masks and practicing social distancing — but individual action on its own can't protect everyone.
"What they need to know is what's going on, and the state health department needs to tell them," he said.
I, too, would really, really like to know what Governor Baker's plan is.
The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 6:25PM on October 21, the town of Acton reported 224 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 8 individuals in isolation, 194 recovered and 21 fatalities.