Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 3 newly reported confirmed deaths (14 less than yesterday - down 82.4%) for a total of 9,295 deaths, 626 newly reported confirmed cases (26 more than yesterday - up 4.3%) for a total of 132,440 cases, and 18,981 new patients tested by molecular tests (5,168 more than yesterday - up 37.4%) for a total of 2,306,606 individuals tested, with a total of 4,334,501 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 3.3%, compared to 4.3% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 215 deaths, and 18 newly reported probable cases (54 less than yesterday - down 75.0%) for a total of 2,507 cases. The state also reported 319 patients tested by antibody tests (218 more than yesterday - up 215.8%) for a total of 121,397 patients, and 1,468 patients tested by antigen tests (1,158 less than yesterday - down 44.1%) for a total of 138,291 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 3 new deaths for a total of 9,510 and 644 new cases for a total of 134,947.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 573.4 compared to 421.0 last week (up 36.2%) and 367.9 two weeks ago (up 55.9%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 14.9 compared to 13.0 last week (up 14.3%) and 14.1 two weeks ago (up 5.1%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 16,283.0 compared to 15,343.6 last week (up 6.1%) and 18,455.3 two weeks ago (down 11.8%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 3.5% compared to 2.7% last week and 2.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 39% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 425, 41% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 2, 2 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 13, 39% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

I would be so much happier with these results if yesterday's numbers hadn't been so awful. Day-to-day, deaths are down, which is always good. Confirmed cases are up, which is bad in general and especially bad given it's the weekend; however, persons newly tested is up a lot more, so the percentage of people testing positive is down. The seven-day averages for deaths, cases and percent-positive continue their multi-week upward trends, which is frankly awful. The state's "key metrics" are still well above their lowest observed values, but maybe perhaps aren't trending upward at the moment? One can hope?

I still haven't seen any specific response to the last couple of days of increased case counts from Governor Baker. Meanwhile, it looks like contact tracing in Europe and the US has been ... less than effective, let us say? ... at helping to control the pandemic:

As the coronavirus stampeded across Europe and the United States this spring, governments made their depleted citizens a tantalizing promise: Soon, legions of disease detectives would hunt down anyone exposed to the virus, confining them to their homes and letting everyone else get on with their lives.

Nearly eight months on, as a web of new infections spreads across Europe and the United States, that promise has nearly evaporated.

Despite repeated vows by Western nations to develop "world-beating" testing and tracing operations, those systems have been undone by a failure of governments to support citizens through onerous quarantines or to draw out intimate details of their whereabouts. That has shattered the hope of pinpoint measures replacing lockdowns and undermined flagging confidence in governments.

Beholden to privacy rules, Western officials largely trusted people to hand over names to contact tracers. But that trust was not repaid, in large part because governments neglected services that were crucial to winning people's cooperation: a fast and accurate testing system and guarantees that people would be housed, fed and paid while they isolated.

"Public health leaders fell in love with the idea of contact tracing as an important tactic — and it is — but that'd be like if you're going into war and were just talking about the tanks," said Brian Castrucci, president of the de Beaumont Foundation, a public health charity in Maryland.

Just as important, officials overlooked the impact of raging mistrust in government and a thicket of conspiracy theories about the virus's spread. Fearful of plunging themselves or their friends into a painful period off work, infected patients have handed over a paltry number of contacts and often flouted self-isolation rules. Contact tracers are struggling to reach people who test positive and being rebuffed once they do.

[ ... ]

The West's public health systems have not matched the success in parts of East Asia where the fear of epidemics became more ingrained after outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

Following those outbreaks, places like Taiwan and South Korea built robust tracing systems and legal frameworks for limiting civil liberties during an epidemic. Some contact tracers have used cellphone and credit card data to identify people who were potentially exposed.

[ ... ]

In Taiwan, an infected person names more than 15 contacts on average, and tracers often interview patients in person, trying to extract details about secret jobs or marital affairs. But the picture in Europe is far different, and the low level of cooperation has startled public health experts.

In Spain, where hospitals are struggling with a new rush of cases, contact tracers identify, on average, only three contacts for each known case. In France, the figure has fallen below three.

Yet even those numbers are higher than in the United States. In New York City, each infected person hands over an average of 1.1 other names.

In England, people are neither handing over many contacts — about five, on average — nor following the rules. In a survey of about 32,000 Britons, less than 1 in 5 who reported coronavirus symptoms said they had stayed home. Of those alerted that they had been close to an infected person, only 1 in 10 said they had complied with orders to self-isolate.

Massachusetts isn't specifically called out in this story. On the other hand, like the rest of the US, the commomwealth has provided almost nothing in the way of financial support for those identified as contacts who are asked to self-isolate while awaiting results.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.