Local COVID-19 updates

[edschweppe]

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 10 newly reported confirmed deaths (5 more than yesterday) for a total of 8,529 deaths, 296 newly reported confirmed cases (82 more than yesterday) for a total of 112,969 cases, and 14,972 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,696 more than yesterday) for a total of 1,337,606 individuals tested, with a total of 1,759,976 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 2.0%, compared to 1.9% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (1 less than yesterday) for a total of 222 deaths, 96 newly reported probable cases (35 more than yesterday) for a total of 8,738 cases, and 494 patients tested by antibody tests (265 more than yesterday) for a total of 102,208. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 10 new deaths for a total of 8,751 and 392 new cases for a total of 121,707.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 276.6 compared to 327.6 last week and 217.0 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 13.3 compared to 15.0 last week and 14.3 two weeks ago. The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 14,785.7 compared to 14,347.4 last week and 11,615.0 two weeks ago. The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 1.9% compared to 2.3% last week and 1.9% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Day-to-day numbers aren't good - more deaths, more cases, worse percent-positive ratio. The seven-day averages are a bit better - improving week-over-week, but a mixed bag compared to two weeks ago (more cases, fewer deaths).

Today's big news: Governor Baker announced that the state would be releasing a weekly map showing which cities and towns are at highest risk for COVID-19 spread, based on the number of cases per 100,000 people in the last fourteen days:

Fewer than one in 10 Massachusetts towns are at moderate or high risk for the coronavirus, Governor Charlie Baker said Tuesday, although four communities north of Boston remain beset by heavy caseloads after months of closures and restrictions.

Over the past two weeks, 29 communities, including Boston, Worcester, and Springfield, have averaged between four and eight cases per 100,000 people, a standard measure of the virus's prevalence. Chelsea, Everett, Lynn, and Revere, densely settled communities with high proportions of essential workers, are at the highest level of risk with more than eight cases per 100,000 people, according to the latest state figures.

"There is an extremely high level of COVID in your community," said Secretary of Health and Human Services Marylou Sudders, addressing people in those places. She urged them to "respect the virus" and take steps such as wearing masks, staying 6 feet apart, washing their hands, and staying home from work if they are ill.

Massachusetts is in the third phase of a staggered reopening process, but recent upticks in cases have sparked concerns among state officials and public health experts.

Baker said he and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito have reached out to leaders in the 33 communities with higher caseloads in the past couple of days "because we want to partner with them in whatever way makes the most sense to help them deal with the spread in their communities."

The state could work with local officials to bolster testing, tracing, and isolation resources, he said at a news conference.

"We're also implementing stepped-up enforcement measures, and we'll also work with these communities on messaging and other communication strategies as we and they see fit."

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Under the state's color-coded system, green towns reported fewer than four cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks, and white towns reported fewer than five cases in total.

The 29 communities determined to be at moderate risk are: Northampton, Holyoke, Chicopee, Springfield, Longmeadow, Granby, Belchertown, Charlton, Auburn, Worcester, Marlborough, Framingham, Maynard, Wrentham, Taunton, Fall River, Brockton, Randolph, Quincy,Hull, Boston, Winthrop, Malden, Saugus, Peabody, Salem, Middleton, Lawrence, and Georgetown.

I'm going to guess that this will be part of Wednesday's weekly update, since the underlying data is already being released as part of that report. But that's a guess.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 10:45AM yesterday, the town of Acton reported 187 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 4 individuals in isolation, 162 recovered and 21 fatalities. On the state map released today, Acton was in the lowest-risk (white) color-code, with less than five cases total reported in the last fourteen days.