Nov. 28th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 5PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 40 newly reported confirmed deaths (11 more than yesterday - up 37.9%) for a total of 10,441 and 2,914 newly reported confirmed cases (1,550 less than yesterday - down 34.7%) for a total of 214,662. The seven day average positivity rate is 3.57%, compared to 3.28% yesterday. Excluding higher education, the seven day average positivity rate is 5.16%, compared to 4.86% yesterday. The number of estimated active cases was 42,549 (697 more than yesterday - up 1.7%). The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (1 less than yesterday - down 50.0%) for a total of 235 and 303 newly reported probable cases (109 more than yesterday - up 56.2%) for a total of 7,807. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 41 new deaths for a total of 10,676 and 3,217 new cases for a total of 222,469. There were 1,045 COVID-19 patients in hospital (59 more than yesterday - up 6.0%), 225 COVID-19 patients in ICUs (16 more than yesterday - up 7.7%) and 111 COVID-19 patients on ventilators (intubated) (2 more than yesterday - up 1.8%).

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the 7-day average of newly confirmed cases is 1,607 (22 more than yesterday - up 1.4%), 923% above the lowest observed value of 157 on July 4 and 38% below the highest observed value of 2,588 on November 20. The 7-day weighted average of positive molecular test rate is 3.6% (0 more than yesterday - up 8.6%), 361% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21 and 87% below the highest observed value of 27.7% on April 15. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 958 (22 more than yesterday - up 2.4%), 518% above the lowest observed value of 155 on August 26 and 76% below the highest observed value of 3,874 on April 27. The 7-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 24 (2 more than yesterday - up 9.1%), 118% above the lowest observed value of 11 on September 9 and 87% below the highest observed value of 175 on April 24.

Two weeks ago, the 7 day confirmed case average was 1,657, the 7 day confirmed deaths average was 20, the 7 day hospitalization average was 641, and the 7 day weighted average positivity rate was 3.1% (or 5.19% excluding higher education).

More bad news. At first glance, the drop in newly confirmed cases would be great news; however, there wasn't a report released on Thanksgiving Day, and thus yesterday's case counts effectively were two days worth of data in one batch; in fact, splitting the Wednesday (3224) and Friday (4464) numbers across three days would result in an average of 2563 new cases, which makes today's 2914 a jump of 351 (up 13.7%). Not to mention that nearly three thousand new cases in one day is still higher than anything between the April surge and earlier this month. Deaths and hospitalizations are also up, and the positivity rate is the highest since June.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 7:30PM on November 25, the town of Acton reported 317 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 36 individuals in isolation, 260 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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