Nov. 6th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 5PM, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 21 newly reported confirmed deaths (2 fewer than yesterday), 2,038 newly reported confirmed cases (277 more than yesterday), 513 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital (15 more than yesterday) and 118 confirmed COVID-19 patients in ICU (3 more than yesterday). There are a total of 19,366 estimated average cases (1,087 more than yesterday). The seven-day average test positivity rate is 2.11% (0.20 percentage points more than yesterday).

The state also finally re-released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report - this time with the town-by-town data and risk color codes. Of course, they completely changed the meaning of those color codes. Now, the meaning depends on the city/town population, the number of total cases, the average cases per 100k population and the positivity rate.

The full details are on page 27 of the report. The net effect is to move a lot of cities and towns out of the red zone - which will make the map look nicer, I suppose, but doesn't do beans for actually reducing case counts (which, as noted above, keep going upward).

Anyway, my town of Acton is listed as having 227 cases, with a two week case count of 14 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 4.2 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of green. Acton is also listed as having 14,026 total tests, with 1,852 total tests and 14 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 0.76% over the last fourteen days, which is the same as last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 158,937 cases, with a two week case count of 14,944 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 15.3 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of yellow. The state is also listed as having 6,374,952 total tests, with 961,864 total tests and 17,727 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 1.84% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.

Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 165 are coded grey, 79 are coded green, and 91 are coded yellow. The remaining 16 cities/towns are coded red: Brockton, Chelsea, Everett, Fall River, Fitchburg, Lawrence, Lowell, Lynn, Methuen, New Bedford, Norfolk, Revere, Seekonk, Somerset, Springfield, and Westport.

Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 5 are coded grey (Berlin, Bolton, Boxborough, Harvard, and Stow), 3 are coded green (Acton, Maynard, and Sudbury), 2 are coded yellow (Hudson and Marlborough), and none are coded red. Under last week's rules, Bolton (7 cases, 9.9 cases/100k), Hudson (44 cases, 14.9 cases/100k), Marlborough (110 cases, 18.0 cases/100k), and Maynard (14 cases, 9.6 cases/100k) would all have been coded red while Sudbury (13 cases, 5.2 cases/100k) would have been coded yellow.

Overall, there's pretty much no good news in this report. Deaths are down day-to-day, so yay for that. But cases are still going up at a scary rate, hospitalizations are going up, positivity is going up, and the only reason the number of high risk communities went down in the weekly numbers was the state redefining what the red zone meant.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:30PM on November 4, the town of Acton reported 240 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 16 individuals in isolation, 203 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

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