Not a local COVID-19 update - yet

As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is ... not reporting anything. Yet. As noted on the COVID-19 Response Reporting page:

Today's data report will be published by 6 p.m.

No explanation as to why.

Local COVID-19 updates

As of 6PM today [1], the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 27 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 less than yesterday - down 25.0%) for a total of 9,727 deaths, 1,243 newly reported confirmed cases (106 more than yesterday - up 9.3%) for a total of 151,741 cases, and 18,333 new patients tested by molecular tests (312 less than yesterday - down 1.7%) for a total of 2,702,953 individuals tested. There were 65,752 new molecular tests reported (18,588 less than yesterday - down 22.0%) with a total of 5,931,323 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 6.8%, compared to 6.1% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 224 deaths, and 103 newly reported probable cases (59 more than yesterday - up 134.1%) for a total of 3,823 cases. The state also reported 278 patients tested by antibody tests (43 less than yesterday - down 13.4%) for a total of 126,754 patients, and 2,257 patients tested by antigen tests (213 more than yesterday - up 10.4%) for a total of 183,029 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 27 new deaths for a total of 9,951 and 1,346 new cases for a total of 155,564.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 1,116.3 compared to 753.7 last week (up 48.1%) and 624.9 two weeks ago (up 78.6%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 19.7 compared to 19.6 last week (up 0.7%) and 14.6 two weeks ago (up 35.3%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 17,534.3 compared to 15,503.6 last week (up 13.1%) and 15,837.6 two weeks ago (up 10.7%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 6.4% compared to 4.8% last week and 4.0% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.8%, 138% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 570, 89% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 3, 3 above the lowest observed value of 0 on October 18. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 21, 125% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

Today being Thursday, the state also released its Weekly COVID - 19 Public Health Report. My town of Acton is listed as having 220 cases, with a two week case count of 11 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 3.3 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of green. Acton is also listed as having 12,912 total tests, with 1,563 total tests and 11 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 0.70% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week. The corresponding statewide numbers are 150,498 cases, with a two week case count of 11,557 new cases in the last fourteen days (higher than last week), a daily incidence rate of 11.8 new cases per day per 100k population in the last fourteen days and a risk color code of red. The state is also listed as having 5,865,571 total tests, with 899,970 total tests and 13,974 positive tests in the last fourteen days, for a percent positive rate of 1.55% over the last fourteen days, which is higher than last week.

Of the 351 cities and towns in the commonwealth, 133 are coded gray (less than 5 total reported cases in the last 14 days), 20 are coded green (less than 4.0 daily cases per 100k population), and 77 are coded yellow (4.0 to 8.0 daily cases per 100k population). The remaining 121 cities/towns are coded red (high-risk; more than 8.0 daily cases per 100k population): Abington, Acushnet, Agawam, Ashland, Athol, Attleboro, Avon, Bedford, Bellingham, Berkley, Beverly, Billerica, Blandford, Bolton, Boston, Boxford, Braintree, Bridgewater*, Brimfield, Brockton, Buckland, Canton, Chelmsford*, Chelsea, Chicopee, Clinton, Cohasset, Danvers, Dartmouth, Dedham, Dighton, Dover, Dracut, East Bridgewater, East Longmeadow, Everett, Fairhaven*, Fall River, Fitchburg, Foxborough, Framingham, Freetown, Gardner, Georgetown, Gloucester, Granby, Hanover, Hanson, Haverhill, Hingham, Holliston, Holyoke, Hubbardston, Hudson, Kingston*, Lakeville, Lawrence, Leicester, Leominster, Littleton, Lowell, Lynn, Lynnfield, Malden, Mansfield, Marlborough, Marshfield, Medford, Mendon, Methuen, Middleton, Milford, Nahant, Nantucket, New Bedford, Newburyport, North Andover*, North Attleborough, Northborough, Norton, Norwood, Palmer, Peabody, Pembroke, Plymouth, Randolph, Raynham, Revere, Rochester, Rockland, Salisbury, Saugus, Seekonk, Shrewsbury, Somerset*, Southborough, Springfield, Swansea, Taunton, Tewksbury, Townsend, Tyngsborough, Wakefield, Waltham, Wareham, Webster, West Boylston, West Bridgewater, West Springfield, Westborough, Westfield, Westport, Westwood, Weymouth, Whitman, Wilmington, Winchester, Winthrop, Woburn, Worcester, and Wrentham.

Of the 10 towns near my church in Stow, 3 are coded gray (Berlin, Boxborough, and Harvard), 1 is coded green (Acton (3.3 daily cases/100k)), 3 are coded yellow (Maynard (6.2 daily cases/100k), Stow (5.9 daily cases/100k), and Sudbury (4.4 daily cases/100k)), and 3 are coded red (Bolton (9.9 daily cases/100k), Hudson (9.9 daily cases/100k), and Marlborough (12.3 daily cases/100k)).

Blech. There is slightly good news day-to-day, in that deaths are down compared to yesterday. But cases are up, and this was yet another day of more than a thousand new cases, which is frankly terrible. (Oh, for the halcyon days of August when we were running around three hundred cases a day or so.) The state's key metrics are all deteriorating as well, and the weekly town-by-town report is getting worse and worse every week. We're now up to 121 cities and towns in the red zone (up from 77 last week and 63 the week before). My own town is still green, which is good, but most of the rest of the towns served by my church are up in the yellow or red zones. (Bolton moved from yellow to red; Maynard moved from gray to yellow.) And, just to make life more difficult for me, the state changed the formatting of its "cases.csv" file and broke the code I use to parse that file and do the appropriate math.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 2:45PM on October 28, the town of Acton reported 233 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 11 individuals in isolation, 201 recovered and 21 fatalities.

[1] They're late, again. Still no explanation as to why.