Oct. 5th, 2020

edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
As of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 20 newly reported confirmed deaths (17 more than yesterday - up 566.7%) for a total of 9,315 deaths, 465 newly reported confirmed cases (161 less than yesterday - down 25.7%) for a total of 132,905 cases, and 11,265 new patients tested by molecular tests (7,716 less than yesterday - down 40.7%) for a total of 2,317,871 individuals tested, with a total of 4,371,050 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 4.1%, compared to 3.3% yesterday. The state also reported zero newly reported probable deaths (same as yesterday) for a total of 215 deaths, and 50 newly reported probable cases (32 more than yesterday - up 177.8%) for a total of 2,557 cases. The state also reported 67 patients tested by antibody tests (252 less than yesterday - down 79.0%) for a total of 121,464 patients, and 1,563 patients tested by antigen tests (95 more than yesterday - up 6.5%) for a total of 139,854 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 20 new deaths for a total of 9,530 and 515 new cases for a total of 135,462.

The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 587.4 compared to 438.6 last week (up 33.9%) and 369.1 two weeks ago (up 59.1%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.1 compared to 13.6 last week (up 18.9%) and 13.9 two weeks ago (up 16.5%). The seven day average number of newly tested individuals per day is 16,028.1 compared to 15,661.6 last week (up 2.3%) and 18,258.4 two weeks ago (down 12.2%). The seven day average percentage of individuals coming back confirmed positive per day is 3.7% compared to 2.7% last week and 2.1% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)

Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 43% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 442, 46% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 3, 3 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 14, 54% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.

It's Monday, so I expect day-by-day numbers to be down due to the weekend. That said, confirmed deaths took a big jump up, which is bad. The confirmed cases and newly-tested individuals are both down, but the ratio between the two also took a big jump up, which is even worse. (Probable cases going up doesn't help matters any.) The seven-day rolling averages are all moving in bad directions, with the sole exception of the most recent average number of newly tested individuals being just slightly better than the previous week. Oh, and the state's percent-positive, hospital census and hospitals-in-surge-mode key metrics are all up again; and, unlike yesterday, those numbers are trending upward.

Still no news of Governor Baker reacting to these numbers. Granted, much of the news is focused on President Trump's latest follies dealing (poorly) with his own COVID-19 infection; but, still, things in Massachusetts are much worse than even a couple of weeks ago, and I for one would really like to know what, if anything, the state intends to do about it.

The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.

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edschweppe: Myself in a black suit and black bow tie (Default)
Edmund Schweppe

February 2025

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