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Local COVID-19 updates
Oct. 1st, 2020 06:53 pmAs of 4PM today, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is reporting 23 newly reported confirmed deaths (9 less than yesterday - down 28.1%) for a total of 9,265 deaths, 708 newly reported confirmed cases (198 more than yesterday - up 38.8%) for a total of 130,461 cases, and 18,159 new patients tested by molecular tests (3,755 more than yesterday - up 26.1%) for a total of 2,252,361 individuals tested, with a total of 4,125,104 molecular tests administered to date. The ratio of newly confirmed cases to individuals tested by molecular test is 3.9%, compared to 3.5% yesterday. The state also reported 1 newly reported probable death (same as yesterday) for a total of 215 deaths, and 46 newly reported probable cases (24 more than yesterday - up 109.1%) for a total of 2,409 cases. The state also reported 167 patients tested by antibody tests (118 less than yesterday - down 41.4%) for a total of 120,585 patients, and 1,837 patients tested by antigen tests (444 more than yesterday - up 31.9%) for a total of 133,689 patients. Combining the confirmed and probable numbers gives 24 new deaths for a total of 9,480 and 754 new cases for a total of 132,870.
The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 514.0 compared to 389.1 last week (up 32.1%) and 340.0 two weeks ago (up 51.2%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.4 compared to 14.1 last week (up 16.2%) and 13.4 two weeks ago (up 22.3%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 15,423.6 compared to 17,155.7 last week (down 10.1%) and 16,870.6 two weeks ago (down 8.6%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 3.3% compared to 2.2% last week and 2.1% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 36% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 439, 45% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 6, 6 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 17, 86% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.
Day-to-day confirmed deaths are down, so that's good. But cases are way up (both confirmed and probable), and the percentage of people testing positive is also substantially up, and that's bad. Worse, all of the seven day averages that I'm calculating are going in bad directions - deaths up, cases up, percent-positive up and number of tests down. Even the state's "key metrics" are all on upward trends, well above their various lowest observed values.
Unless something turns around quickly (and I'm not expecting any such thing), I suspect Massachusetts is going to go back on other state's lists of places from which travelers need to either quarantine themselves or show proof of a negative COVID-19 test. Massachusetts' own criteria (from the travel order) is twofold: "average daily cases per 100K below 6 AND positive test rate below 5%, both measured as a 7-day rolling average" based on the data at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/. As of yesterday at 8:50PM PDT, Massachusetts was listed as having 74 new cases per million per day, which is 7.4 cases per 100k. Which, as one might well observe, is rather higher than six.
I haven't seen any reports yet of any reaction by Governor Baker to today's numbers.
The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.
The seven day average number of newly confirmed cases per day is 514.0 compared to 389.1 last week (up 32.1%) and 340.0 two weeks ago (up 51.2%). The seven day average number of newly confirmed deaths per day is 16.4 compared to 14.1 last week (up 16.2%) and 13.4 two weeks ago (up 22.3%). The seven day average number of molecular tests per day is 15,423.6 compared to 17,155.7 last week (down 10.1%) and 16,870.6 two weeks ago (down 8.6%). The seven day average percentage of tests coming back positive per day is 3.3% compared to 2.2% last week and 2.1% two weeks ago. (The above averages are calculated from today's raw data download.)
Of the Commonwealth's four "key metrics" listed on page 2 of the report, the seven-day weighted average positive test rate is 1.1%, 36% above the lowest observed value of 0.8% on September 21. The three-day average number of COVID-19 patients in hospital is 439, 45% above the lowest observed value of 302 on August 29. The number of hospitals using surge capacity is 6, 6 above the lowest observed value of 0 on September 5. The three-day average number of COVID-19 deaths is 17, 86% above the lowest observed value of 9 on September 7.
Day-to-day confirmed deaths are down, so that's good. But cases are way up (both confirmed and probable), and the percentage of people testing positive is also substantially up, and that's bad. Worse, all of the seven day averages that I'm calculating are going in bad directions - deaths up, cases up, percent-positive up and number of tests down. Even the state's "key metrics" are all on upward trends, well above their various lowest observed values.
Unless something turns around quickly (and I'm not expecting any such thing), I suspect Massachusetts is going to go back on other state's lists of places from which travelers need to either quarantine themselves or show proof of a negative COVID-19 test. Massachusetts' own criteria (from the travel order) is twofold: "average daily cases per 100K below 6 AND positive test rate below 5%, both measured as a 7-day rolling average" based on the data at https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/. As of yesterday at 8:50PM PDT, Massachusetts was listed as having 74 new cases per million per day, which is 7.4 cases per 100k. Which, as one might well observe, is rather higher than six.
I haven't seen any reports yet of any reaction by Governor Baker to today's numbers.
The town of Acton has yet to post an update today. As of the most recent report at 8:15PM on September 28, the town of Acton reported 207 cumulative cases of COVID-19 in town with 5 individuals in isolation, 181 recovered and 21 fatalities.